The opposition has tied its own hands by refusing to govern with Arab parties
Israel's parliament has voted to dissolve itself, setting the stage for elections by late August — the latest rupture in a political order long strained by the unresolved question of whether ultra-orthodox men should serve in the military. Benjamin Netanyahu, who has governed for two of the last three decades and now stands trial on corruption charges while presiding over a war the United Nations has called genocide, remains the most popular figure in Israeli polling. Yet the mathematics of coalition-building may deny him a majority, even as the opposition, numerically stronger, cannot easily translate its numbers into power. The election will test whether a democracy under extraordinary internal and international pressure can find a path that its own political architecture seems designed to obstruct.
- Israel's far-right coalition shattered over a promise Netanyahu could not keep — military service exemptions for ultra-orthodox men — sending 110 of 120 lawmakers to vote for dissolution.
- Netanyahu enters the campaign carrying the weight of three corruption trials, a war the UN has declared genocide, and historic lows in Western support, yet his core base of roughly 45 percent remains unmoved.
- Opposition parties collectively poll ahead of Netanyahu's bloc, but their leaders have pledged not to govern with Arab parties — a self-imposed constraint that may hand Netanyahu victory despite his unpopularity.
- New figures are reshaping the field: Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have joined forces, Gadi Eisenkot has surged after losing family in Gaza, and 17 to 20 percent of voters remain undecided.
- Even a Netanyahu defeat is unlikely to change the fundamental reality for Palestinians — any successor government would remain firmly right-wing, with occupation policy expected to continue under a quieter register.
On Wednesday, Israeli lawmakers voted overwhelmingly to dissolve parliament, triggering elections no earlier than late August. The immediate cause was the collapse of Netanyahu's far-right coalition over military service exemptions for ultra-orthodox men — a question that has destabilized Israeli governments for years. When the moment came, 110 of 120 lawmakers backed dissolution.
Netanyahu has dominated Israeli politics for two decades. His current tenure has seen accelerated West Bank settlement construction, the exclusion of international humanitarian organizations from Palestinian territories, and a military campaign in Gaza — launched after Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis on October 7, 2023 — that has eliminated more than ten percent of Gaza's population. The United Nations has characterized the destruction as genocide. Netanyahu has simultaneously faced trial on three counts of corruption.
And yet he leads the polls. His resilience reflects the fractured geometry of Israeli politics: no party has ever won an outright majority, coalition-building is everything, and his potential partners currently fall short of 61 seats. The opposition collectively polls higher — between 64 and 71 seats — but its leaders have pledged not to include Arab parties in any government, leaving ten seats effectively stranded and a numerical majority politically unusable.
The landscape has shifted since the last election. International support for Israel has fallen sharply. Benny Gantz, once second in polls, has dropped below the electoral threshold. His replacement is Naftali Bennett, who launched a new party called Together (Israel) alongside former Prime Minister Yair Lapid. At the launch, Bennett declared the party would not surrender a single centimeter of Israeli territory. Lapid stood beside him. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, who lost his son and nephew in the war, has climbed to 13–15 seats. Avigdor Lieberman holds steady at ten. The Democrats, a left-wing merger supporting a two-state solution, also poll around ten seats.
With 17 to 20 percent of voters undecided, the race is both extremely close and genuinely open. But analysts caution against expecting transformation. If Netanyahu falls, the likely successor government would still be firmly right-wing. Bennett, who once led the umbrella organization for Israeli settlements, opposes Palestinian statehood. A new government might lower the rhetorical temperature, revive diplomatic ties, and pursue an independent inquiry into October 7 — but on the central question of occupation and Palestinian self-determination, the underlying architecture appears locked in place. Whether sustained international pressure and an unusually broad coalition might force something genuinely new remains, for now, an open question.
On Wednesday, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve parliament and set the stage for new elections. The move came as Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition finally fractured under the weight of a question that has haunted Israeli politics for years: whether to guarantee military service exemptions for most ultra-orthodox young men. Netanyahu's coalition partners—two ultra-nationalist religious parties and two ultra-orthodox religious parties holding 64 seats combined—had grown convinced the government would not deliver on this promise. When the vote came, 110 of 120 lawmakers backed dissolution. By law, a three-month campaign period must follow. Late August is the earliest possible election date, with October 27 as the final cutoff.
Netanyahu has dominated Israeli politics for two decades, serving as prime minister for twenty of the last thirty years. His current four-year tenure has been marked by accelerated settlement construction in the occupied West Bank, the banning of international humanitarian organizations from Palestinian territories, and—following Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack that killed 1,200 Israelis—a military campaign in Gaza that has eliminated more than ten percent of the population. The United Nations has characterized this destruction as genocide. Throughout, Netanyahu has faced trial on three counts of corruption.
Yet despite this record, Netanyahu remains the most consistently popular potential prime minister in Israeli polling. Since August 2024, he has topped nearly every survey. This apparent paradox reflects the fractured state of Israeli politics. The Knesset's 120 seats are distributed through proportional representation, with typically thirty to forty parties competing for the 3.25 percent threshold needed to enter parliament. No Israeli party has ever won a majority of sixty-one seats, making coalition-building essential. Current polling suggests Netanyahu's potential coalition partners would secure between forty-nine and fifty-six seats—short of a majority. Yet the opposition parties, collectively polling between sixty-four and seventy-one seats, face their own structural problem: their leaders have repeatedly pledged not to form governments that include Arab parties, despite those parties holding ten seats. This self-imposed constraint means that even with a numerical majority, opposition parties cannot easily translate votes into power.
The political landscape has shifted dramatically since voters last went to the polls. International support for Israel has reached historic lows in Western Europe and the United States. Within Israel, public opinion has drifted further rightward. The second-ranked party in polls has changed repeatedly. Benny Gantz, who led the second-place party in the months surrounding October 7, has since fallen below the electoral threshold. He has been replaced by Naftali Bennett, who formed a new party called Together (Israel) in alliance with former Prime Minister Yair Lapid. Bennett, despite his origins in the far right, is now perceived by Israeli voters as moderate right-wing. Lapid, once known as a centrist secular liberal, is viewed as left-wing largely because he was the last sitting prime minister to publicly support a two-state solution—a position he no longer articulates. At their joint venture's launch, Bennett declared the party would not surrender a single centimeter of Israeli territory. Lapid stood beside him.
Other challengers have emerged. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, who lost his son and nephew in the Gaza war, has surged from six seats in polling to thirteen to fifteen. Avigdor Lieberman, a longtime Netanyahu rival from the secular nationalist right, consistently polls at ten seats. The Democrats, a merger of two former left-wing parties, also poll around ten seats and support a two-state solution and an end to occupation. The two major Arab parties, holding ten seats combined, are still determining whether to merge, stay separate, or form new configurations.
Netanyahu's resilience stems partly from his core supporters. Polling suggests forty-five percent of Israelis remain steadfastly with him. Among coalition voters, belief in a conspiracy theory—that military and intelligence chiefs knew of the October 7 attack and allowed it to proceed to embarrass the prime minister—has grown over time. His personal approval ratings remain respectable. In the last election, his supporting parties combined won 48.3 percent of the vote. He does not need to recapture vast numbers of voters. Seventeen to twenty percent of Israelis remain undecided, meaning small shifts could determine the outcome. The race is simultaneously extremely close and wide open.
If Netanyahu loses power, the incoming government would likely still be firmly right-wing. But change might come in other areas. A new government might adopt less populist rhetoric, reduce attacks on judicial institutions, and potentially establish an independent inquiry into October 7—something Netanyahu has resisted. Diplomatic relations might be revived. The draft for ultra-orthodox military service might advance. Yet on the central question of Palestinian policy, transformation appears unlikely. Naftali Bennett, who would likely hold significant influence in any new government, previously led the Judea and Samaria Settlement Council, the umbrella organization for Israeli settlements in occupied territory. He remains opposed to Palestinian statehood. Any new government might seek to reduce international pressure by lowering the volume on Palestinian issues, but this would amount to what one analyst calls window dressing. When similar opposition parties governed in 2021 and 2022, Palestinian policy remained fundamentally unchanged. The underlying problems—occupation, self-determination, the possibility of a two-state solution—appear locked in place regardless of which right-wing coalition holds power. Yet unexpected shifts remain possible. A government encompassing the full ideological range of current opposition parties, facing sustained international pressure from multiple directions, might find itself in circumstances that force genuine change.
Citas Notables
The beginning of the end of the worst government in Israel's history— Yair Golan, leading left-wing Knesset member, on parliament's dissolution vote
We will safeguard the lands of our country and will not hand over a single centimetre to the enemy— Naftali Bennett, at launch of Together (Israel) party
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did the coalition finally break now, after holding together for four years despite this military service exemption issue?
It wasn't that the issue suddenly became more important. It's that Netanyahu's partners lost faith he would actually deliver on it. They'd been waiting, the government had been teetering on the edge repeatedly, and at some point you stop believing promises. The trust evaporated.
Netanyahu is still polling strongest, but he can't form a majority. How does he stay in power?
He doesn't necessarily. But the opposition has tied its own hands. They have the numbers to govern, but they've all said publicly they won't include Arab parties. So even though they outnumber Netanyahu's bloc, they can't actually govern together. It's a self-imposed trap.
What's driving voters toward Bennett and Lapid, who are essentially saying the same things Netanyahu says about territory?
Voters see them as less divisive, less populist. It's not about policy toward Palestinians—that's remarkably consistent across the right. It's about style, about how you govern domestically, about whether you attack judges and institutions. Netanyahu has been doing that for four years.
So even if Netanyahu loses, nothing really changes for Palestinians?
That's the hard truth. Bennett was running settlements before he was in politics. The opposition parties governed in 2021 and 2022, and Palestinian policy didn't shift then either. The occupation is baked into Israeli politics across the spectrum.
What about the undecided voters—the 17 to 20 percent?
They're the entire election. The race is so tight that small movements in either direction could flip the outcome. Netanyahu doesn't need to win back huge numbers. He just needs enough of those undecided voters to tip toward him.
Is there any scenario where things actually change?
Only if a new government faces such sustained international pressure from multiple directions simultaneously that it finds itself forced to move. But that's the exception, not the rule. The structural incentives all point toward continuity.