Every cost government chooses not to address finds its way into someone's shopping basket.
As conflict reshapes the arteries of global trade, British households find themselves downstream of decisions made far beyond their shores. A blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has set in motion a chain of rising costs — energy, fertilizer, freight — that now threatens to arrive at the supermarket checkout. Four in five Britons already sense what is coming, and the question before their government is whether it will act while the window remains open, or wait until the price is already paid.
- Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil, gas, fertilizer, and shipping costs surging, with the shockwave now moving toward British grocery shelves.
- An Opinium poll finds 80% of Britons fear the conflict will push food prices higher, with similar majorities dreading rises in energy bills, fuel, and taxes.
- The Bank of England forecasts food inflation hitting 7% by year-end, with one analysis warning prices could be 50% above their 2021 baseline by November.
- Retail chiefs — including Sainsbury's CEO Simon Roberts and British Retail Consortium head Helen Dickinson — are urging the government to strip non-commodity charges from business energy bills, citing Germany and the EU as models already in motion.
- The government points to suspended food tariffs and pledges of support, but retailers say the measures fall short and warn that the moment for meaningful intervention is rapidly narrowing.
A new poll by Opinium has laid bare a deep unease in British households: 80% of respondents believe the conflict in Iran will push their grocery bills higher, with three-quarters expecting wider price rises across everyday goods. The anxiety is grounded in visible economic mechanics — Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a third of the world's seaborne oil passes, has driven up energy prices, seized fertilizer supplies, and raised the cost of shipping goods globally.
The Bank of England now forecasts food inflation reaching 7% by the end of 2026, building on official data showing food prices already rose 3.7% in the year to March. A separate analysis suggests that by November, grocery prices could sit 50% above where they stood at the start of the cost of living crisis in 2021 — a figure that reflects how compounding shocks have dramatically accelerated the pace of inflation at the till.
Retail leaders are pressing the government to act before that trajectory becomes irreversible. Helen Dickinson of the British Retail Consortium is calling on ministers to remove non-commodity energy levies from business bills — a step Germany has already taken, and one EU leaders are actively debating. Sainsbury's chief Simon Roberts, who met Chancellor Rachel Reeves in April, has called energy price relief for retailers "the single biggest thing the government should do to keep prices down."
The government says it is acting — pointing to suspended food tariffs and new support for energy-intensive industries — but retailers argue the response remains insufficient. With the geopolitical situation unresolved and Donald Trump pledging to use warships to reopen the strait as Iran reasserts its blockade, the pressure on household budgets is unlikely to ease on its own. As Dickinson put it, every cost the government declines to address will eventually find its way into someone's shopping basket — and the time to prevent that is running short.
A new poll has captured a stark anxiety rippling through British households: four in five people believe the conflict in Iran will make their grocery bills heavier. The research, conducted by Opinium, found that 80% of respondents worry food prices will climb as retailers absorb mounting costs and pass them along to shoppers. Three-quarters expect the same pressure to drive up the price of other goods across the board.
The mechanics are already visible in global markets. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—the chokepoint through which roughly a third of the world's seaborne oil passes—has sent energy prices surging. Fertilizer supplies have seized up. The cost of moving goods by ship has jumped. Manufacturing and chemicals sectors, which gulp down enormous quantities of gas, have felt the shock most directly. But the ripples are spreading outward, toward the supermarket shelf.
The Bank of England is forecasting food inflation to reach 7% by the end of the year, driven by higher fertilizer costs, energy bills, and transport expenses. Official data already shows food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 3.7% in the year to March 2026, up from 3.3% the month before. A separate analysis published this week suggested that by November, food prices could be 50% higher than they were at the start of the cost of living crisis in 2021—a trajectory that reflects how climate shocks and energy crises have nearly quadrupled the pace at which grocery costs are climbing.
Retail leaders are now pressing the government to act, and quickly. Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said the war is "driving up costs across the supply chain and families are right to be concerned." She is calling on ministers to strip away non-commodity energy charges—the fees and levies that bulk up electricity bills for businesses—from retailer accounts. Germany has already moved in this direction, shifting levies off bills to ease the burden on companies. EU leaders are actively discussing similar measures. The UK, Dickinson argued, should follow suit rather than treat global instability as an excuse for inaction on costs that are, in part, self-inflicted.
Simon Roberts, chief executive of Sainsbury's, met with Chancellor Rachel Reeves in early April to discuss the Middle East conflict's impact on living costs. He has since said that capping energy prices for retailers is "the single biggest thing the government should do to keep prices down." Reeves did announce additional support for energy-intensive businesses in April, but retailers say it is not enough. The window for meaningful intervention, they warn, is closing.
The Opinium survey also captured broader anxiety about the cost of living. Beyond food, 81% of respondents worried about rising energy bills, 76% about petrol and diesel, and 68% about tax increases. All of these pressures feed into grocery inflation. The government has responded by saying it is "acting to protect people from any potential increases in food prices," pointing to suspended food tariffs and ongoing work with the retail sector. But as uncertainty persists in the Middle East—with Donald Trump promising to use warships to force open shipping routes through the strait while Iran seeks to reassert its blockade—the pressure on UK household budgets shows no sign of easing. Retailers are holding prices down where they can, Dickinson said, but they cannot do it alone. "Every cost government chooses not to address is a cost that will find its way into someone's shopping basket. That is a political choice, and it is one ministers still have time to change – but the window to act is closing."
Citas Notables
Retailers are working hard to hold prices down, but they cannot do it alone. Every cost government chooses not to address is a cost that will find its way into someone's shopping basket.— Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium
Limiting energy prices for retailers is the single biggest thing the government should do to keep prices down.— Simon Roberts, chief executive of Sainsbury's
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a conflict thousands of miles away matter to someone buying milk at Tesco?
Because the Strait of Hormuz is where roughly a third of the world's oil passes through. When Iran blockades it, energy prices spike everywhere. Fertilizer gets scarce. Ships cost more to run. All of that flows into what you pay at checkout.
So the retailers are saying the government should have seen this coming?
Not exactly. They're saying the government has tools to soften the blow—cutting the non-commodity charges on business electricity bills—and other countries are already using them. Germany did it. The EU is discussing it. The UK hasn't, and retailers think that's a choice, not an inevitability.
What does "non-commodity energy costs" actually mean?
The commodity part is the raw electricity itself. The non-commodity part is all the fees, levies, and charges layered on top. For a business, those can be substantial. Retailers want those removed from their bills so they don't have to pass the cost to customers.
How bad could this get?
The Bank of England is forecasting 7% food inflation by year-end. One analysis suggests prices could be 50% higher by November than they were at the start of the cost of living crisis in 2021. That's not a small shift.
And the government says?
They say they're protecting people—they've suspended some food tariffs and are working with retailers. But retailers say that's not enough, and the clock is ticking. Once these costs fully work through the supply chain, it's much harder to reverse.
So what happens if the government doesn't act?
Families see their grocery bills climb. The political cost of inaction becomes visible every time someone goes shopping. That's what the retailers are really saying—this is a choice, and it has consequences.