Coffee prices tripled in two years, lifting thousands of farmers
Across Kenya's highlands and smallholder plots, a quiet transformation is unfolding: coffee farmers are earning three times what they did just two years ago, as prices climbed from $35 to $120 per kilogram and production reached 51,400 tonnes in the 2024-25 season. Yet this moment of prosperity sits uneasily within a broader agricultural story shaped by erratic rains, where some crops flourished and others collapsed, slowing the sector's growth from 4.3 to 2.8 percent. Kenya's land is producing both abundance and scarcity at once — a reminder that in an era of climate volatility, prosperity and precarity are never far apart.
- Coffee prices have tripled in two years, fundamentally reshaping the livelihoods of thousands of Kenyan farmers who had long endured thin margins.
- Erratic rainfall fractured the agricultural season — some regions flooded with excess, others starved of moisture — leaving bean, sugarcane, wheat, and tea farmers absorbing serious losses.
- Horticulture and cut flowers surged as bright exceptions, with flower export volumes jumping over 27 percent, though vegetable exports stumbled over pesticide compliance failures in foreign markets.
- The overall farming sector slowed sharply, and food security experts are warning that without urgent investment in irrigation and climate-smart agriculture, this volatility will become the norm rather than the exception.
- Coffee's boom may be concealing a structural fragility — the question now is whether Kenya can build resilience before the next failed rains or a retreat in global prices erases these hard-won gains.
Kenya's coffee farmers are living through a rare season of good fortune. Production rose to 51,400 tonnes in 2024-25, but the deeper change is in price — coffee that fetched $35 per kilogram in 2024 now commands $120, a tripling that has rewritten the economics of farming for communities across the country.
The broader agricultural picture, however, tells a more complicated story. Sector growth slowed to 2.8 percent in 2025, down from 4.3 percent the year before, as erratic rainfall created a patchwork of outcomes. Bean production fell by a million bags, sugarcane output dropped nearly a quarter, wheat declined by over 18 percent, and tea slipped eight percent — real losses for farmers whose survival depends on these crops. Maize grew only modestly, though potatoes and millet posted stronger gains.
Horticulture offered one of the year's clearest bright spots, with export volumes climbing nearly 14 percent and cut flower earnings reaching 81.3 billion shillings on the back of strong global demand. Vegetable exports fell, however, hurt by pesticide residue violations that led to rejections in key markets. Rice production improved, supported by expanded irrigation. In livestock, marketed milk climbed over 11 percent, signaling deeper integration into formal supply chains.
Underneath these mixed results lies a structural warning. The Economic Survey flags Kenya's growing exposure to weather variability, and experts are urging substantial investment in irrigation and climate-smart farming before the next disruption arrives. Coffee's current boom is real — but it rests on an increasingly unstable foundation. Whether this moment becomes a genuine turning point depends on choices made now, before the rains fail again.
Kenya's coffee farmers are experiencing a rare moment of prosperity. Production climbed to 51.4 thousand tonnes in the 2024-25 season, up from 49.5 thousand tonnes the year before, according to the Economic Survey 2026 released in Nairobi this week. But the real story is in the price. Coffee that sold for $35 per kilogram in 2024 has now reached $120 per kilogram—a tripling in just two years that has fundamentally altered the economics of farming for thousands of people across the country.
This surge stands in sharp contrast to the broader agricultural picture. While coffee thrives, the sector as a whole is struggling. Farming grew by just 2.8 percent in 2025, reaching 1.75 trillion shillings, a significant slowdown from the 4.3 percent growth recorded in 2024. The culprit is weather. The year brought erratic rainfall patterns—some regions drenched with above-average long rains while others faced below-average short rains. This uneven distribution has created a patchwork of winners and losers across Kenya's farms.
The damage is visible in the numbers. Bean production collapsed, falling from 8.4 million bags to 7.4 million bags. Sugarcane output dropped sharply by nearly a quarter, to 7.05 million tonnes. Wheat production fell by 18.2 percent. Tea, another traditional cash crop, declined by eight percent. These are not marginal shifts. They represent real losses for farmers who depend on these crops for survival. Maize production managed only a modest 2.4 percent increase to 45.8 million bags, while potatoes and millet showed stronger growth at 13.6 and 14.3 percent respectively.
Yet some sectors have found their footing. Horticulture emerged as one of the year's brightest spots, with export volumes jumping 13.8 percent to 457.9 thousand tonnes and earnings growing 5.3 percent to 143.8 billion shillings. Cut flowers drove much of this momentum, with export volumes surging 27.4 percent and earnings reaching 81.3 billion shillings, buoyed by strong international demand. Vegetable exports, however, stumbled, falling nine percent to 21.3 billion shillings, hampered by compliance issues including pesticide residue violations that triggered rejections in key markets. Rice production also improved, rising 6.4 percent to 303.7 thousand tonnes, supported by expanded irrigation infrastructure.
In the livestock sector, milk production rose 3.5 percent to 5.5 billion litres, with marketed milk climbing over 11 percent to just above one billion litres, signaling growing participation in the formal market. Yet the broader commodity picture remains volatile. Coffee prices surged 35.9 percent, while tea prices dropped 5.2 percent. Maize prices climbed 23.2 percent and wheat flour export prices jumped 42.1 percent, but fish prices fell 27.8 percent. This volatility reflects the unpredictability now baked into Kenya's agricultural system.
The underlying threat is climate. The Economic Survey explicitly warns of Kenya's growing vulnerability to weather variability. Food security experts have begun sounding alarms, cautioning that without substantial new investment in climate-smart farming techniques and irrigation infrastructure, the production swings that plagued 2025 will likely persist. Coffee's current boom may be masking a deeper fragility. The sector's growth has slowed despite gains in select crops, and the gains themselves rest on a foundation increasingly unstable. What happens when the rains fail again, or when global coffee prices retreat? The answer may determine whether this moment of farmer prosperity becomes a turning point or merely a brief reprieve.
Citações Notáveis
Slower growth is largely linked to uneven rainfall during the year, with some areas receiving too much rain and others too little, affecting overall farm production— Economic Survey 2026
Without greater investment in climate-smart farming and irrigation, production volatility could persist— Food security experts cited in the survey
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why is coffee doing so well when everything else is struggling?
Coffee has two things working in its favor right now—production is actually recovering, and global prices have tripled. That's a rare combination. Most crops are fighting just to maintain output in bad weather. Coffee farmers are getting both volume and price.
But the survey says weather was terrible. How did coffee escape that?
Coffee is a perennial crop. It's more resilient to a single bad year than annual crops like beans or maize. But the real answer is probably that coffee-growing regions happened to get better rainfall distribution than other areas. Weather in Kenya is deeply uneven—some places got too much rain, others too little. Coffee farmers got luckier.
Is this sustainable? Can it last?
That's the hard question. The survey itself warns that without serious investment in irrigation and climate-smart farming, volatility will continue. Coffee's boom is real, but it's also fragile. If global prices drop or if next year's rains are worse, those farmers could be back in trouble.
What about the farmers growing beans and sugarcane? They're losing ground.
Exactly. While coffee farmers are celebrating, bean farmers watched production fall by a million bags, and sugarcane output dropped nearly a quarter. The uneven weather hit them hard. They don't have the price cushion that coffee has right now.
So this is really a story about climate risk, not agricultural success?
It's both. There are real gains—horticulture is booming, some food crops are growing. But they're happening in spite of worsening weather patterns, not because of good conditions. The sector is adapting, but it's adapting to increasing instability. That's not a sustainable model.