China now accounted for one-third of all Brazilian exports
Em meio a um crescimento geral das exportações brasileiras, o comércio com os Estados Unidos recua de forma persistente — não por acaso, mas como reflexo de tensões tarifárias que ameaçam redesenhar as rotas do intercâmbio global. O Brasil, nação cuja prosperidade foi historicamente ancorada na diversidade de seus parceiros comerciais, vê-se diante de uma bifurcação: de um lado, um mercado americano que se fecha com ameaças de tarifas de até 37,5%; de outro, uma China que absorve um terço de tudo que o país exporta. O que os números de maio revelam não é apenas uma variação estatística, mas o esboço de uma nova ordem econômica em formação.
- As exportações brasileiras para os EUA caíram 14% em maio e 16% no acumulado do ano, sinalizando uma ruptura que vai além de flutuações sazonais.
- A China consolidou-se como destino de um terço de todas as exportações do Brasil, com crescimento de 9,5% em maio — um eixo de dependência que se aprofunda enquanto outras portas se fecham.
- Washington anunciou tarifas que podem chegar a 37,5% sobre produtos brasileiros, com decisão final prevista para 15 de julho, deixando exportadores em compasso de espera e incerteza.
- Analistas independentes estimam que as tarifas combinadas podem afetar até US$ 10,1 bilhões em exportações brasileiras — um golpe que aceleraria ainda mais o pivô do país em direção a Pequim.
- Mercados como Canadá, México e América Central surpreendem com altas expressivas, sugerindo que o Brasil já busca, silenciosamente, novos equilíbrios comerciais.
O desempenho exportador do Brasil em maio apresentou uma contradição reveladora: o crescimento geral de 6,6% escondia uma queda de 14% nas vendas aos Estados Unidos, que recuaram de US$ 3,6 bilhões para US$ 3 bilhões. No acumulado de janeiro a maio, o recuo chegou a 16%, com o total caindo de US$ 16,7 bilhões para US$ 14 bilhões. A retração era mútua — as compras americanas de produtos brasileiros também encolheram 11% no mês e 12,6% no ano.
Enquanto o mercado americano murchava, a China florescia como destino dominante. Em maio, as exportações ao gigante asiático subiram 9,5%, chegando a US$ 10,5 bilhões — um terço de tudo que o Brasil vendeu ao mundo. As importações vindas da China cresceram ainda mais, 24,2%, aprofundando um desequilíbrio que revela o quanto os dois países estão entrelaçados. Outros mercados apresentaram resultados díspares: Argentina e Oriente Médio registraram quedas superiores a 20%, enquanto Canadá, México e América Central surpreenderam com expansões significativas.
A pauta exportadora permaneceu fiel às suas raízes: soja (US$ 6,3 bilhões), petróleo bruto (US$ 3,8 bilhões), minério de ferro (US$ 1,9 bilhão) e carne bovina (US$ 1,7 bilhão) responderam pela maior parte dos embarques. No acumulado do ano, o Brasil exportou US$ 148,57 bilhões — alta de 8,7% — e manteve superávit comercial de US$ 32,6 bilhões. Os números pareciam sólidos.
Mas os dados de maio ainda não refletiam o que estava por vir. Nesta semana, os Estados Unidos anunciaram um pacote de tarifas que pode impor alíquotas de até 37,5% sobre produtos brasileiros, resultado de duas investigações comerciais separadas. A decisão final está prevista para 15 de julho, quando o presidente Donald Trump deverá dar seu aval. O governo brasileiro estima perdas entre US$ 2,3 bilhões e US$ 4,1 bilhões apenas com a primeira tarifa; analistas independentes falam em até US$ 10,1 bilhões afetados. O pivô em direção à China, já em curso, pode se tornar não uma escolha, mas uma necessidade.
Brazil's export engine sputtered in May, even as the country's overall shipments abroad climbed 6.6% for the month. The headline growth masked a troubling divergence: while sales to most of the world held steady or improved, the American market—historically one of Brazil's most important—collapsed. Exports to the United States fell 14% in May alone, dropping to $3 billion from $3.6 billion a year earlier. The damage extended backward through the year. From January through May, Brazilian shipments to the U.S. had contracted 16%, totaling $14 billion instead of the $16.7 billion sent in the same window of 2025. American purchases of Brazilian goods were falling too, down 11% in May and 12.6% year-to-date, suggesting the slowdown was mutual.
The real story, though, lay in where Brazil was turning instead. China had become the undisputed center of gravity for Brazilian exports. In May, sales to the Asian giant rose 9.5%, reaching $10.5 billion—a jump from $9.6 billion the previous year. China now accounted for one-third of all Brazilian exports, a dominance that reflected both the strength of Chinese demand and the weakness of alternatives. Imports from China told an even starker tale: they surged 24.2%, climbing from $5.4 billion to $6.8 billion year-over-year. Brazil was buying far more from Beijing than it was selling there, a dynamic that underscored the country's deepening economic entanglement with its largest trading partner.
Other markets showed mixed signals. Argentina and the Middle East both saw Brazilian sales decline sharply—Argentina down 21.7% to $1.3 billion, the Middle East down 21.5% to $987 million. But Canada, Mexico, and Central America bucked the trend, with exports climbing 23.4%, 11.2%, and 40.1% respectively. The commodity composition of Brazilian exports remained unchanged: soy dominated at $6.3 billion in May sales, followed by crude oil at $3.8 billion, iron ore at $1.9 billion, and beef at $1.7 billion. These four products, along with fuel oils and copper concentrates, accounted for the bulk of what Brazil sent into the world.
For the first five months of 2026, the overall picture looked robust. Brazil had exported $148.57 billion, an 8.7% increase over the same period in 2025. Imports totaled $115.91 billion, up 3.2%, leaving a trade surplus of $32.6 billion. The combined flow of goods—exports plus imports—reached $264.5 billion, up 6.2% year-over-year. On paper, Brazil's commerce was expanding. But the May figures did not yet reflect what was coming.
This week, the United States announced a new package of tariffs that could impose duties as high as 37.5% on Brazilian products. The measures stemmed from two separate trade investigations. One alleged unfair Brazilian commercial practices and proposed a 25% tariff; the other, citing insufficient efforts to prevent goods made with forced labor from entering U.S. markets, proposed an additional 12.5% levy. Together, they could devastate Brazilian exporters. The government calculated that the first tariff alone could cost between $2.3 billion and $4.1 billion in annual sales. Independent analysts were more pessimistic, estimating that the combined duties could affect up to 25% of Brazilian exports to the United States—roughly $10.1 billion worth of goods that currently flow north without such barriers.
The tariffs have not yet taken effect. The United States will hold a formal comment period and public hearings before making a final decision on July 15, when President Donald Trump is expected to give his approval. Until then, the May numbers stand as a snapshot of trade before the storm. Brazil's exporters, already watching American demand weaken, now face the prospect of a wall of duties that could reshape the entire geography of their business. The pivot toward China, already underway, may accelerate sharply.
Citações Notáveis
The May figures did not yet reflect what was coming— reporting on the timing of the tariff announcement
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why did exports to the U.S. fall so much harder than overall exports rose?
The U.S. is a wealthy, selective market. When American demand softens, it hits hard and fast. Meanwhile, Brazil found other buyers—Canada and Central America especially. But those gains couldn't offset what was lost in America.
Is China really buying more, or is Brazil just desperate to sell there?
Both. China's economy is still growing, and it needs what Brazil has—soy, oil, minerals. But Brazil is also shifting its entire trade orientation because the U.S. is becoming unreliable. The 24% jump in imports from China shows Brazil is also buying more Chinese goods. It's a deepening relationship, not just a sales push.
The tariffs haven't happened yet, but the damage is already showing in May's numbers. Why?
Markets move on expectation. Traders and importers know what's coming. They're already adjusting orders, hedging bets, looking for alternatives. The formal announcement just confirmed what everyone suspected.
What happens if those tariffs actually go through on July 15?
Roughly $10 billion in annual exports could face duties up to 37.5%. That's not a small adjustment—that's a structural shock. Some Brazilian exporters will absorb the cost and lose margin. Others will try to find new markets or renegotiate. But there's no easy escape. You can't just redirect soy shipments overnight.
Is Brazil's trade surplus large enough to absorb this kind of hit?
The surplus is $32.6 billion for five months, so roughly $78 billion annualized. A $10 billion hit is significant but not catastrophic. The real danger is if the tariffs trigger a broader retreat from Brazilian goods—if other countries follow the U.S. lead, or if the uncertainty itself freezes investment and trade flows.