A substantial framework for the two leaders to build upon
Dos naciones que juntas representan casi la mitad de la economía mundial han elegido, al menos por ahora, el diálogo sobre la confrontación. Tras meses de escalada arancelaria y controles de exportación que amenazaban con fracturar cadenas de suministro globales, negociadores estadounidenses y chinos alcanzaron en Kuala Lumpur un acuerdo marco que aleja el fantasma de un arancel del 157 por ciento sobre productos chinos. El encuentro entre Trump y Xi en Corea del Sur este jueves determinará si este primer paso se convierte en arquitectura duradera o en otra pausa frágil en una rivalidad que define nuestra era.
- Durante semanas, la maquinaria de la guerra económica avanzó sin freno: listas negras ampliadas, controles sobre minerales de tierras raras y amenazas de aranceles del 100 por ciento que debían entrar en vigor en noviembre.
- Los mercados asiáticos y los futuros bursátiles estadounidenses respiraron aliviados cuando el secretario del Tesoro Scott Bessent anunció que esos aranceles estaban 'esencialmente descartados'.
- El acuerdo marco incluye compras chinas de soja estadounidense —un salvavidas para agricultores de Illinois, Iowa y Minnesota que cosecharon este otoño sin pedidos de su mayor comprador histórico—, retrasos en controles de exportación de tierras raras, cooperación contra el fentanilo y una resolución sobre la venta de TikTok.
- China reconoció un 'consenso preliminar' pero subrayó que defenderá sus intereses; Pekín aún no ha confirmado oficialmente la reunión del jueves, manteniendo la incertidumbre sobre el desenlace final.
Las dos mayores economías del mundo se alejaron del abismo esta semana. Tras meses de amenazas arancelarias en escalada y controles de exportación cada vez más estrictos, los negociadores de Estados Unidos y China salieron de las conversaciones en Kuala Lumpur con lo que denominan un acuerdo marco. El pacto, alcanzado durante la primera escala del recorrido diplomático asiático del presidente Trump, evita un potencialmente devastador arancel del 157 por ciento sobre productos chinos.
El secretario del Tesoro Scott Bessent, que encabezó la delegación estadounidense junto al representante comercial Jamieson Greer, describió el momento con cautela optimista. Tras la quinta ronda de negociaciones presenciales, Bessent señaló que ambas partes habían logrado un 'marco sustancial' sobre el que Trump y Xi Jinping podrán construir cuando se reúnan el jueves en Corea del Sur, y confirmó que los aranceles del 100 por ciento previstos para noviembre estaban 'esencialmente descartados'.
Las tensiones se habían disparado en septiembre, cuando Estados Unidos amplió su lista negra de empresas chinas y China respondió endureciendo sus controles sobre minerales de tierras raras, materiales críticos que procesa en cantidades casi monopólicas. El acuerdo marco contempla un retraso en esos controles chinos, compras sustanciales de soja estadounidense —los agricultores del Medio Oeste habían cosechado este otoño sin pedidos del que fue su mayor comprador—, cooperación inicial para frenar el flujo de precursores de fentanilo y un 'acuerdo completo' sobre la venta de los activos estadounidenses de TikTok.
El negociador chino Li Chenggang adoptó un tono diferente: reconoció los 'altibajos' de las últimas semanas, pero subrayó que China no cederá ante la presión. La agencia estatal Xinhua habló de un 'consenso preliminar' y de que ambas partes seguirán trabajando en los detalles. Ahora todas las miradas apuntan al jueves en Corea del Sur, donde Trump y Xi se encontrarán por primera vez en este segundo mandato en los márgenes de la cumbre APEC. Pekín no ha confirmado aún el encuentro —silencio habitual en la diplomacia china—, pero el tono que emerge de Kuala Lumpur sugiere un camino más constructivo. Si ese marco se convierte en acuerdo vinculante dependerá de lo que ocurra en esa sala el jueves.
The two largest economies in the world stepped back from the brink this week. After months of escalating trade threats—tariffs climbing higher, export controls tightening, the machinery of economic warfare grinding forward—negotiators from the United States and China emerged from talks in Kuala Lumpur with what they're calling a framework agreement. The deal, reached during the first stop of President Trump's week-long diplomatic tour through Asia, averts a potentially catastrophic 157 percent tariff on Chinese goods that had been looming over both economies.
The breakthrough came as a relief to markets across Asia and to investors watching American stock futures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the American delegation alongside trade representative Jamieson Greer, described the moment with cautious optimism. Speaking to reporters in Malaysia after the fifth round of in-person negotiations, Bessent said the two sides had achieved "a substantial framework" for Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to build upon when they meet Thursday in South Korea. He also noted that the 100 percent tariffs Trump had previously threatened—the ones that were supposed to take effect in November—were now "essentially off the table."
The tensions that brought both nations to this point had escalated rapidly in September. The United States expanded its blacklist of Chinese companies, significantly restricting their access to American technology. China responded by tightening its own controls on rare earth minerals—the critical materials that China processes in near-monopoly quantities. That move prompted Trump to threaten the sweeping tariffs. Neither country had provided a complete accounting of what the framework actually contains, but Bessent offered some specifics. The United States expects to receive some form of delay in China's rare earth export controls. China, for its part, has committed to making substantial purchases of American soybean exports. Farmers in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Indiana have been harvesting this fall without orders from China, which was once their largest buyer. The two sides also reached an initial agreement on cooperation to stem the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals into the United States, and they finalized what Bessent called a "complete agreement" on TikTok, the short-form video app whose American assets must be sold to American buyers under U.S. law.
China's lead negotiator, Li Chenggang, who headed the Chinese delegation alongside Vice Premier He Lifeng, struck a different tone in his own remarks. He acknowledged that the "ups and downs" between the two countries over the past month were not what China wanted to see, but he emphasized that China remains firm in defending its interests despite American pressure. A statement from China's state news agency Xinhua reported that both sides had reached a "preliminary consensus" on how to address their respective concerns, and that they had agreed to continue working out specific details while pursuing their internal approval processes.
All eyes now turn to Thursday's meeting in South Korea, where Trump and Xi are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. This will be their first face-to-face encounter during Trump's second term. Beijing has not yet confirmed that the meeting will take place—a silence that is not unusual for the Chinese government, which typically waits until talks are underway before making public announcements. But the tone emerging from the negotiators in Malaysia suggests a more constructive path forward. Whether the framework becomes a binding agreement, and what shape that agreement ultimately takes, will depend on what happens in that room on Thursday.
Citas Notables
We have achieved a substantial framework for the two leaders to meet on next Thursday— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking in Kuala Lumpur
The ups and downs between our countries over the past month are not what China wanted to see, but China remains firm in defending its interests— Li Chenggang, China's lead trade negotiator
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did these negotiations suddenly move forward now, after weeks of escalation?
The framework gives both sides a way to claim they didn't back down. Trump gets to say he forced China to the table and extracted concessions on rare earths and soybeans. China gets to say it stood firm on its core interests while avoiding the worst tariffs. Neither had to surrender; they just found a ledge to stand on.
What's actually in this framework? It sounds vague.
It is vague by design. They've agreed on the broad strokes—delays on rare earth controls, soybean purchases, fentanyl cooperation, TikTok resolution. But the details are left for Trump and Xi to hammer out Thursday. It's a skeleton, not a finished house.
Why does Beijing's silence about the meeting matter?
Because if Xi doesn't show up, the whole framework collapses. The Chinese government doesn't confirm these things until they're certain, which means they're still deciding whether this deal is worth their while. That's leverage, and it's still in play.
What happens to American farmers if this falls apart?
They go back to harvesting without a buyer. China was buying roughly a third of American soybean exports before the trade war. These farmers have been holding on through cycles of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. A failed Thursday meeting sends them back into uncertainty.
Is 157 percent the actual number, or is it negotiating theater?
It's real. That's what Trump threatened if the rare earth controls continued. Whether he would have actually imposed it is another question, but the number was on the table, and both sides knew it would devastate trade. Avoiding it is a genuine win for both economies.