A gap of 10.4 points that has widened sharply in just seven days
En el tramo final de una elección que divide profundamente al Perú, el maestro rural Pedro Castillo amplía su ventaja sobre Keiko Fujimori a diez puntos porcentuales, según el último sondeo del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. La consolidación del electorado en apenas una semana revela un país que, aunque aún no termina de decidirse, se inclina con creciente claridad hacia una visión de cambio radical. Queda un debate, una semana y millones de voluntades por definir.
- En siete días, Castillo saltó de 36.5% a 44.8%, una ganancia de 8.3 puntos que transforma una ventaja ajustada en una brecha difícil de ignorar.
- Fujimori también creció —4.8 puntos en una semana— pero el ritmo de su recuperación no alcanza para cerrar la distancia antes del 6 de junio.
- Los indecisos se redujeron a apenas 5.1%, señal de que el electorado está tomando partido, aunque un 12.8% aún prefiere el voto en blanco como forma de protesta.
- El debate presidencial del 30 de mayo en Arequipa se perfila como el último escenario donde cualquiera de los dos candidatos podría alterar el rumbo de la contienda.
- La carrera no está cerrada: la suma de votos blancos, nulos e indecisos sigue siendo un factor capaz de redefinir el resultado final.
A dos semanas de la segunda vuelta presidencial en Perú, Pedro Castillo lidera con comodidad a Keiko Fujimori según la más reciente encuesta del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos: 44.8% frente a 34.4%, una brecha de 10.4 puntos que se ha ensanchado notablemente en solo siete días. La semana anterior, la ventaja era de apenas 6.9 puntos, lo que convierte este salto en una señal clara de consolidación electoral a favor del candidato de Perú Libre.
Mientras los indecisos se reducen —de 7.8% a 5.1% en una semana— el voto en blanco o nulo se mantiene en 12.8%, recordando que una porción significativa del electorado peruano rechaza ambas opciones. La encuesta, realizada por teléfono entre el 20 y el 21 de mayo con 1,208 personas en los 24 departamentos del país, tiene un margen de error de 2.8 puntos.
El sondeo llega una semana antes del debate presidencial programado para el 30 de mayo en Arequipa, organizado por el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones. Ese encuentro será probablemente la última oportunidad para que Castillo —maestro rural y dirigente sindical que promete redistribución económica y una nueva constitución— y Fujimori —defensora de la continuidad institucional y el modelo de mercado— disputen los votos que aún no están definidos. La tendencia favorece a Castillo, pero el peso del voto de protesta mantiene la incertidumbre sobre el resultado final.
Two weeks before Peru's runoff election, Pedro Castillo has pulled decisively ahead of his rival. The latest survey from the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos shows the Perú Libre candidate commanding 44.8 percent support, while Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular trails at 34.4 percent—a gap of 10.4 percentage points that has widened sharply in just seven days.
A week earlier, Castillo held a narrower 6.9-point advantage, with 36.5 percent to Fujimori's 29.6 percent. In the span of a single week, he gained 8.3 points while she picked up 4.8 points, suggesting a consolidation of voter preference as the June 6 election approaches. The movement reflects a campaign season in motion, with voters making final decisions about which candidate to support.
The poll also captures the state of undecided voters, a group that has shrunk considerably. Just 5.1 percent of respondents remain genuinely uncertain about their choice, down from 7.8 percent the previous week—a decline of 2.7 points that signals voters are settling on their preferences. Another 12.8 percent indicated they plan to cast blank or null ballots, a protest vote that has become a notable feature of Peruvian electoral politics. A small 2.9 percent either refused to declare support for either candidate or said they would not vote on election day, a figure that ticked up slightly from the week before.
The survey was conducted by telephone between May 20 and 21, reaching 1,208 respondents distributed across Peru's 24 departments, 144 provinces, and 404 districts. The sample achieved a provincial representation rate of 94.5 percent, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points in either direction. The timing of the poll is significant: it captures voter sentiment one week before a scheduled presidential debate in Arequipa on May 30, organized by the National Electoral Jury. That debate represents one of the final opportunities for the two candidates to address undecided voters and shape the narrative in the closing stretch.
Castillo, a rural schoolteacher and union organizer, has built his campaign around promises of radical economic redistribution and a new constitution. Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, has positioned herself as a defender of market economics and institutional continuity. The widening gap suggests that in this moment, Castillo's message is resonating more broadly, though the substantial bloc of blank-vote intentions and the remaining undecided voters mean the race is not yet settled. The debate in Arequipa will be watched closely for any shift in momentum before voters go to the polls.
Notable Quotes
The difference between both aspirants for the presidency is 10.4 percentage points, compared to previous polls— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (IEP) poll summary
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
What's striking here is how much movement happened in just one week. How do you explain Castillo gaining eight points so quickly?
It's partly consolidation—voters who were genuinely undecided or leaning toward him finally committing. But it also suggests his message is breaking through in a way it wasn't before. A schoolteacher talking about redistribution and a new constitution resonates differently depending on when people are paying attention.
And Fujimori gained ground too, just not as much. What does that tell us?
She's holding her base—the 34.4 percent represents people who believe in market continuity and institutional stability. But she's not expanding beyond that core. The real question is whether the remaining undecided voters break toward her or toward Castillo, or whether they just vote blank.
That blank vote number is striking. Twelve point eight percent. What does that mean for the actual race?
It's a rejection of both candidates, or at least both options as presented. In Peru, that's a meaningful political statement. It doesn't change who wins, but it signals deep dissatisfaction with the choice itself.
The debate is a week away. Can that move the needle again?
It can, but probably not dramatically. Most voters have already decided. The debate matters for the 5 percent who are genuinely undecided and for shaping how each candidate's base talks about the race afterward. But the trajectory is already set.