The gap had compressed from twenty points to six
En las semanas previas a la segunda vuelta del 6 de junio, Perú contempla cómo una elección que parecía decidida se convierte en una contienda abierta: el maestro rural Pedro Castillo ve reducirse su ventaja de veinte puntos a poco más de seis frente a Keiko Fujimori, hija del expresidente encarcelado. La encuesta del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, levantada tras el primer debate presidencial en Chota, revela que las fracturas históricas del país —entre ricos y pobres, entre sierra y ciudad— siguen siendo el verdadero campo de batalla de esta democracia.
- Lo que parecía una victoria casi segura para Castillo se ha convertido en una carrera reñida: su ventaja se desplomó de 20 puntos a apenas 6.2 en solo dos semanas.
- El primer debate presidencial en Chota actuó como catalizador, acelerando la toma de decisión de los indecisos y redirigiendo votos hacia Fujimori.
- La brecha económica define el mapa electoral: Fujimori domina con 51.4% entre los votantes más acomodados, mientras Castillo retiene 44.3% en los sectores más pobres, aunque ha perdido terreno en todos los segmentos.
- Los indecisos se reducen al 8.6%, señal de que el electorado se está consolidando y de que el margen para cambiar el resultado se estrecha con cada día que pasa.
- Con un mes por delante y cada punto porcentual en disputa, ninguno de los dos candidatos puede proclamar la victoria como inevitable.
La carrera presidencial peruana dio un vuelco dramático en los primeros días de mayo. Una nueva encuesta del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos mostró a Pedro Castillo, el candidato izquierdista de Perú Libre, con 36.2 por ciento de intención de voto, mientras Keiko Fujimori de Fuerza Popular había escalado hasta el 30 por ciento. La diferencia, de apenas 6.2 puntos, contrastaba con la ventaja de 20 puntos que el mismo instituto le había otorgado a Castillo apenas dos semanas antes.
El momento de la encuesta no era casual. Realizada entre el 3 y el 5 de mayo mediante llamadas a teléfonos celulares en 24 departamentos del país, capturó el estado de ánimo del electorado justo después del primer debate presidencial celebrado en Chota, en la región de Cajamarca. Ese encuentro pareció mover a los votantes indecisos: su proporción cayó del 13.5 al 8.6 por ciento, señal de que la segunda vuelta del 6 de junio comenzaba a tomar forma definitiva.
Las cifras reflejaban, una vez más, las fracturas profundas de la sociedad peruana. Fujimori concentraba el 51.4 por ciento del apoyo en los sectores de mayores ingresos, mientras que en los estratos más pobres su respaldo se hundía al 19 por ciento. Castillo, en cambio, mantenía su base más sólida en esas comunidades de menores recursos, con el 44.3 por ciento, aunque había retrocedido en todos los segmentos económicos sin excepción.
Con los indecisos como factor cada vez menos determinante y ambos candidatos afianzando sus bases, la elección había dejado de ser un resultado anunciado para convertirse en una disputa genuina donde cada décima de punto podría inclinar la balanza.
Peru's presidential race tightened sharply in early May, according to a new survey from the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. Pedro Castillo, the leftist candidate from Perú Libre, held 36.2 percent support, while Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular had climbed to 30 percent—a gap of just 6.2 percentage points. Two weeks earlier, the same pollster had given Castillo a commanding 20-point lead, with 41.5 percent to Fujimori's 21.5 percent. The shift marked a dramatic reversal in momentum as the two candidates prepared for a June 6 runoff.
The poll, conducted by telephone between May 3 and 5, surveyed 1,218 voters across Peru's urban and rural areas, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. The timing was significant: the survey captured public sentiment immediately after the first presidential debate, held in the Andean city of Chota in Cajamarca region. That debate appeared to have moved voters, particularly those still making up their minds. The share of undecided voters shrank from 13.5 percent to 8.6 percent in just two weeks, suggesting the race was crystallizing as the runoff approached.
The numbers told different stories across Peru's economic divides. Fujimori maintained her strongest support among the country's wealthiest voters, commanding 51.4 percent in the A/B income bracket. She also held 32.8 percent in the middle-class C sector. But in the poorest segments, labeled D/E, her support collapsed to just 19 percent. Castillo, by contrast, showed his deepest roots in those lower-income communities, where he held 44.3 percent—still a plurality but notably weaker than his 41.5 percent from the previous survey. He had lost ground in every income segment. In the A/B bracket, he managed only 23.8 percent, and in the C sector, 31.8 percent.
The poll's methodology reflected Peru's modern electoral landscape. Rather than in-person interviews, the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos conducted the survey by calling cell phone numbers selected through random probability sampling. The sample was distributed across 24 departments, 146 provinces, and 421 districts, achieving a provincial representativeness level of 95 percent. The work was financed by the newspaper La República and registered with Peru's electoral authority under resolution number 1209-2018-DCGI/JNE.
With undecided voters now a shrinking force and both candidates consolidating their bases, the race had entered its final month as a genuine contest. Castillo retained an advantage, but Fujimori's surge suggested the outcome was no longer predetermined. Every percentage point would matter in a runoff where the margin had compressed from twenty points to six.
Citas Notables
The poll captured public sentiment immediately after the first presidential debate in Chota, with the timing suggesting the debate moved voters.— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos survey methodology
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
What changed between late April and early May to shift the race so dramatically?
The first presidential debate in Chota happened right in that window. That's when voters actually saw the two candidates face each other and make their case. Before that, Castillo had been running on his name and his message without much direct confrontation.
But Castillo still leads. Why would a debate help Fujimori close the gap if he won?
Debates don't always have clear winners and losers. What matters is whether they move undecided voters. In this case, nearly five percentage points of undecided voters made a choice in two weeks. Some of them may have gone to Fujimori, or they may have simply decided to show up and vote rather than stay home.
The income breakdown is striking—Fujimori dominates the wealthy, Castillo dominates the poor. Is that unusual for Peru?
Not unusual at all. Peru has always had sharp class divisions in voting. But what's notable here is that Castillo lost support even among the poor—he dropped from 41.5 to 44.3 in the D/E segment. That's not a gain, it's a loss. He's bleeding votes everywhere.
So Fujimori's path to victory runs through the middle class?
It has to. She can't win on the wealthy vote alone. She needs to hold her ground in the C sector and convince enough working-class voters that she's not a threat. The debate may have helped her seem more reasonable than Castillo's campaign had portrayed her.
What does a 6.2-point lead mean with a margin of error of 2.8 points?
Mathematically, it means the race is tighter than the headline suggests. Castillo could be ahead by as little as 3.4 points or as much as 9 points. It's still his race to lose, but it's no longer a landslide.