Some companies are pushing decisions further down the road, wanting to understand better what comes next.
Em um momento em que a geopolítica redesenha os cálculos do setor aéreo, a Embraer observa companhias aéreas pausarem decisões de compra diante da guerra no Irã e do encarecimento do combustível — não por desespero, mas por prudência. Francisco Gomes Neto, presidente da fabricante brasileira, apresentou esse quadro na cúpula anual da IATA no Rio de Janeiro: a carteira de pedidos permanece robusta, cobrindo quase cinco anos de entregas, mas a hesitação nas margens do mercado revela como a incerteza global pesa sobre compromissos de longo prazo. É a diferença entre um mercado que recua e um mercado que respira fundo antes de seguir em frente.
- A guerra no Irã elevou os custos de combustível de aviação e instalou uma névoa de incerteza sobre decisões que, em tempos mais calmos, seriam rotineiras.
- Companhias aéreas com opções de compra em mãos estão adiando seu exercício — não cancelando, mas esperando que o horizonte se torne mais legível.
- A Embraer responde com movimentos concretos: fechou acordos com a Finnair e a Azorra e mantém campanhas de vendas ativas, com olhos voltados para o Farnborough Airshow em julho.
- A meta de 95 a 100 entregas em 2027 depende menos de uma resolução geopolítica e mais de avanços contínuos na cadeia de suprimentos, ainda marcada por gargalos herdados da pandemia.
- A empresa renegocia contratos antigos de margens estreitas e aposta em novos acordos mais rentáveis para fortalecer sua posição financeira à medida que a demanda se consolida.
Francisco Gomes Neto, presidente da Embraer, apresentou na cúpula anual da IATA no Rio de Janeiro um retrato de mercado marcado por avanços e hesitações simultâneas. A carteira de pedidos da fabricante brasileira se estende por quase cinco anos, e as campanhas de vendas seguem ativas — mas algo mudou. Companhias aéreas que detêm opções de compra estão optando por esperar, pressionadas pela incerteza gerada pela guerra no Irã e pelo aumento nos preços do combustível de aviação. Não é pânico, disse Gomes Neto. É prudência.
A empresa não ficou parada. Fechou acordos recentes com a Finnair, para dezoito aeronaves, e com a arrendadora Azorra, para mais quinze. A família E2, mais eficiente no consumo de combustível, é o principal argumento comercial num momento em que custos operacionais pesam cada vez mais nas decisões das aéreas. Novos fechamentos são esperados no Farnborough Airshow, no Reino Unido, no próximo mês.
Para 2026, a Embraer projeta entre oitenta e oitenta e cinco entregas comerciais. A ambição para 2027 é chegar a noventa e cinco ou cem — um salto que depende, sobretudo, da continuidade na melhora da cadeia de suprimentos, ainda afetada por gargalos pós-pandemia. Gomes Neto foi claro: a resolução das tensões geopolíticas importa menos do que a fluidez industrial.
Nas margens, a empresa trabalha para deixar para trás contratos fechados em condições menos favoráveis, apostando que a demanda aquecida sustentará preços melhores nos novos acordos. Sobre se 2026 igualará 2025, o executivo admitiu não saber — mas demonstrou convicção de que o setor de aviação comercial permanecerá sólido. A pergunta que fica é se a cautela atual se aprofundará ou se dissolverá conforme o cenário geopolítico encontrar algum equilíbrio.
Francisco Gomes Neto, the chief executive of Embraer, sat down at the International Air Transport Association's annual summit in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday with a measured assessment of the aircraft market: business is moving forward, but with visible hesitation creeping in at the edges.
The Brazilian planemaker has not seen airlines cancel orders or slow their active sales campaigns. The order book stretches nearly five years into the future. Yet something has shifted. Airlines that held options to purchase additional aircraft—commitments made in better times—are now choosing to wait. They want to see how the situation unfolds. The war in Iran has unsettled fuel markets, pushing aviation costs higher, and that uncertainty is making executives cautious about locking in new commitments.
Gomes Neto described the dynamic plainly: some companies that could be exercising their purchase options are pushing those decisions further down the road, wanting to understand better what comes next. It is not panic. It is prudence. The difference matters.
Embraer is not sitting idle. The company closed recent deals with Finnair for eighteen aircraft and with the lessor Azorra for fifteen more, building on what was a strong year in 2025. The E2 family of jets, which burns fuel more efficiently than older models, is the centerpiece of the company's pitch to a market where operating costs have become a sharper concern. Several sales campaigns are underway, and Gomes Neto expects to close some agreements at the Farnborough Airshow in the United Kingdom next month.
The production outlook reflects cautious optimism. Embraer plans to deliver eighty to eighty-five commercial aircraft this year. For 2027, the company has set an internal target of ninety-five to one hundred deliveries—a meaningful increase that would require the supply chain to keep improving. Gomes Neto emphasized that hitting those numbers depends far more on smoothing out the bottlenecks that have plagued manufacturing since the pandemic than on any resolution of geopolitical tensions. Those supply chain constraints have been easing gradually, he said, though they remain a constraint.
Margins are another priority. Embraer has been renegotiating some older contracts that were locked in at lower profit levels, and the company is banking on stronger demand for new deals to support better pricing going forward. If airlines do eventually exercise their options, or if new orders materialize, the company wants to ensure those sales are more profitable than the agreements signed in leaner times.
When asked whether 2026 would match 2025's performance, Gomes Neto was honest: he did not know. But he was animated about the year ahead. The commercial aviation sector itself, he believed, would remain solid. The question is whether the caution now visible in purchase decisions will deepen or fade as geopolitical uncertainty settles.
Citações Notáveis
Some companies that could be exercising their purchase options are pushing those decisions further down the road, wanting to understand better how the situation will unfold.— Francisco Gomes Neto, Embraer CEO
Production targets depend more on supply chain improvements than on resolution of geopolitical tensions.— Francisco Gomes Neto, Embraer CEO
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why are airlines hesitating now when Embraer's order book is so full?
Because options are different from firm orders. An option is a right to buy later, not an obligation to buy now. When fuel costs spike and the future looks murky, that right suddenly feels less urgent.
But the company says it hasn't seen cancellations or slower sales campaigns.
Exactly. This is not a crisis. It's a pause. Airlines aren't walking away from Embraer. They're just not rushing to commit to more aircraft when they're still absorbing higher operating costs.
What does the Iran situation have to do with aircraft orders?
Fuel prices. The conflict has pushed aviation fuel costs up, which directly hits airline margins. When margins tighten, executives become more conservative about future capital spending.
So supply chain problems are actually less of a worry than geopolitics?
For production targets, yes. Gomes Neto was clear: hitting 95 to 100 deliveries in 2027 depends on supply chains smoothing out, not on Iran. The geopolitics just affects whether airlines want to buy more planes.
What's the play with renegotiating old contracts?
Embraer locked in deals at lower prices when times were tougher. Now they want to reset those terms and ensure new sales come at better margins. It's about profitability, not just volume.
Does he sound worried?
No. Cautious, yes. But he's animated about the year. He just knows the easy growth is behind him.