The state's habit of voting out whoever held power
On a Sunday morning in early May 2021, India turned its attention to five regions where weeks of voting had concluded and the counting of ballots was set to begin. From the riverine plains of West Bengal to the coastal territories of Puducherry, the results would answer not merely who would govern, but whether the country's political center of gravity was shifting — testing the durability of regional strongholds, the reach of a rising national party, and the resilience of traditions that had long defined how Indians choose their leaders.
- West Bengal's eight-phase election — the longest in its history — had become a referendum on whether the BJP could achieve the unthinkable: transforming three assembly seats into a governing majority against a deeply entrenched Mamata Banerjee.
- Tamil Nadu was navigating its first election without the two titans who had defined its politics for generations, leaving both the AIADMK and DMK to prove they could stand on their own in a post-Jayalalithaa, post-Karunanidhi era.
- Kerala's Left Democratic Front was attempting to shatter a decades-old tradition of anti-incumbency, with exit polls suggesting that Pinarayi Vijayan's crisis management through floods and a pandemic may have earned voters' rare consecutive trust.
- In Puducherry, political collapse had already arrived before the votes were counted — a Congress government had imploded weeks earlier, and exit polls now pointed toward a BJP-aligned alliance filling the vacuum.
- Across all five regions, the results were poised to answer a single overarching question: whether the BJP's expansion into India's east and south was a durable realignment or a temporary surge against weakened opponents.
On a Sunday morning in early May, counting centers across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry prepared to reveal the arithmetic of power from elections held over the preceding weeks. The results would not only determine who governed these regions but signal something larger about the direction of Indian politics.
West Bengal had consumed the most attention. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, which had won 211 of 293 seats in 2016, was fighting for a third consecutive term while hemorrhaging prominent figures to the BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party — holding just three seats and barely ten percent of the vote — had mounted an unprecedented campaign, with exit polls suggesting it could cross 100 seats and approach an outright majority. The grueling eight-phase election, the longest in the state's history, reflected just how fiercely contested the ground had become.
Tamil Nadu was navigating unfamiliar terrain: its first election without Jayalalithaa or Karunanidhi, the two figures who had dominated its politics for decades. Chief Minister Edapaddi K. Palaniswami of the AIADMK faced M. K. Stalin of the DMK, and exit polls gave Stalin a clear majority. In Puducherry, the contest had effectively been decided before it began — Congress MLAs had resigned weeks earlier, collapsing the government and forcing the chief minister out. An alliance of the AIADMK, BJP, and NR Congress was now favored to take power.
Kerala offered a test of one of Indian politics' most durable traditions: the state's habit of voting out its incumbent government. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the Left Democratic Front were seeking a historic consecutive term, and exit polls suggested they might succeed — a verdict that would imply voters had rewarded the LDF's stewardship through devastating floods and the ongoing pandemic. The Congress-led United Democratic Front, which had campaigned with the Gandhi family's involvement, was counting on the old rhythm to reassert itself.
In Assam, the BJP-led alliance was positioned to become the first non-Congress government to win back-to-back terms in the state, though exit polls suggested a somewhat reduced majority. The campaign had leaned heavily on the BJP's signature issue of illegal immigration, framing the contest as a choice between security and what it characterized as Congress-era permissiveness.
As the counting began, the five regions together posed a question that extended well beyond their borders: whether the BJP's push into traditionally non-saffron territory represented a lasting realignment, whether regional parties retained the strength to resist it, and whether the Congress — once the undisputed center of Indian political life — still held meaningful ground in the country's east and south.
Across five regions of India, ballot counters were preparing their tables on a Sunday morning in early May, ready to tally votes that would reshape the political map of the country's east and south. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and the union territory of Puducherry had all held elections in recent weeks—some stretched across multiple phases, others compressed into a single day—and now the arithmetic of power was about to be revealed.
In West Bengal, the contest had consumed the state for months. The ruling Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee, had won 211 of the 293 seats it contested in 2016 and was fighting to hold power for a third consecutive term. But the party had hemorrhaged during the campaign season, losing prominent figures to the opposition BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which held only three seats in the current assembly and commanded just over 10 percent of the vote, was making an unprecedented push into Bengal. Exit polls suggested the party could cross 100 seats—possibly even secure an outright majority—and capture around 40 percent of the vote. The eight-phase election had been the longest in the state's history, a grueling stretch that reflected the intensity of the contest. All eyes were on whether Banerjee could hold her ground or whether the BJP would achieve what seemed unthinkable just years before.
Tamil Nadu presented a different kind of transition. For the first time in living memory, the state was voting without two towering figures who had shaped its politics for decades: J. Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi. The incumbent chief minister, Edapaddi K. Palaniswami, represented the AIADMK, the party Jayalalithaa had led. His challenger was M. K. Stalin, the son of Karunanidhi and the face of the DMK. Exit polls had given the DMK a clear majority, suggesting Stalin would become the next chief minister. The AIADMK, in power since 2011, was hoping to win a third term despite internal instability and the weight of incumbency. In Puducherry, the political ground had shifted even before voting ended. Congress MLAs had resigned weeks before the election, collapsing the ruling coalition and forcing Chief Minister V. Narayanasamy to step down ahead of a trust vote in late February. Exit polls now predicted victory for an alliance of the AIADMK, BJP, and the NR Congress.
Kerala presented a test of a political tradition that had held for decades: the state's habit of voting out whoever held power. The Left Democratic Front, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, was seeking to break that pattern and win a historic consecutive term. Exit polls suggested it might succeed. The Congress-led United Democratic Front, which had campaigned hard with the Gandhi family's involvement, was banking on the old rhythm reasserting itself. The LDF had won 91 of 140 seats in 2016, leaving the UDF with 47. The BJP had won a single seat. If the exit polls held, it would suggest that Vijayan's government—which had steered the state through devastating floods and the ongoing Covid-19 crisis—had earned enough public confidence to survive.
In Assam, the BJP-led alliance was confident of retaining power and becoming the first non-Congress government to win consecutive terms in the state. The alliance, which included the Asom Gana Parishad, the United People's Party Liberal, and the Gana Suraksha Party, had won 86 of 126 seats in 2016. Exit polls suggested they would secure between 70 and 80 seats this time, with the Congress-led Grand Alliance predicted to win 45 to 55. The campaign had been marked by the BJP's focus on immigration, with the party repeatedly accusing previous Congress governments of harboring illegal Muslim immigrants for political gain. Voting had stretched across three phases in late March and early April, with turnout ranging from nearly 80 percent to over 82 percent across the three days.
As the morning wore on and counting centers across these five regions prepared to begin their work, the shape of Indian politics hung in the balance. The results would determine not just who governed these regions, but what they suggested about the trajectory of power in the country as a whole—whether the BJP's expansion into traditionally non-saffron territory would continue, whether regional parties could hold their ground, and whether the Congress, once the dominant force in Indian politics, retained any purchase on power in these crucial states.
Citas Notables
The BJP, through the election campaign, sought to politicize the issue of immigrant influx in Assam, often accusing previous Congress governments of harboring illegal Muslim immigrants in exchange for political support.— Campaign narrative in Assam
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does West Bengal matter so much more than the others?
Because it's the biggest shock. The BJP has been a fringe player there—three seats, barely noticed. Now exit polls say they could win a majority. If that happens, it's not just a state election result. It's proof the party can remake the political map anywhere.
And Mamata Banerjee—she's been losing people to the BJP?
Yes. During the campaign, prominent Trinamool figures defected. When that starts happening, it signals something deeper than normal electoral competition. It suggests people inside the party itself are losing faith.
What about Tamil Nadu? Why does it feel different?
Because the two men who defined the state for generations are both gone. Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi shaped everything—the culture, the language politics, the way power worked. Now their successors are fighting without them. It's a generational hinge.
And Kerala is trying to break its own rule?
Exactly. For decades, Kerala votes out whoever's in power. It's almost mechanical. But the exit polls say the Left government might survive. That would mean the state is saying something new—that this government earned another chance.
What does Assam's focus on immigration tell you?
It tells you the BJP found an issue that works there. Immigration, Muslim immigrants specifically—it's the frame they've built the campaign around. Whether voters agreed with that frame is what the results will show.