Neither candidate had built genuine enthusiasm; both were leading by ruling out alternatives.
Con dos semanas antes de las elecciones presidenciales colombianas del 29 de mayo de 2022, una encuesta de alta confiabilidad reveló no tanto una preferencia colectiva como una profunda ambivalencia: Gustavo Petro encabezaba la intención de voto con 36.64%, pero tanto él como su principal rival, Federico Gutiérrez, cargaban tasas de rechazo que superaban o rivalizaban con su propio respaldo. En el umbral de una decisión histórica, el electorado colombiano parecía moverse menos por convicción que por descarte, eligiendo no al candidato más amado, sino al menos rechazado.
- Petro lidera con claridad numérica —36.64% frente al 21.40% de Gutiérrez— pero su ventaja coexiste con un rechazo del 25.92%, señal de que su apoyo tiene límites estructurales.
- Gutiérrez enfrenta una paradoja más aguda: su tasa de rechazo del 37.66% supera su propio nivel de respaldo, lo que convierte cada voto a su favor en una apuesta contra la corriente.
- Un bloque de indecisos del 14.39% y un 6.19% dispuesto a votar en blanco mantienen el resultado final en suspenso, con capacidad real de alterar el orden de llegada.
- Rodolfo Hernández, con 10.90%, y Sergio Fajardo, con 6.06%, fragmentan aún más un electorado que no ha consolidado mayorías en torno a ninguna figura.
- La encuesta, con 8.000 personas y un nivel de confianza del 97.3%, ofrece un retrato fiable de un país que parece elegir no entre visiones de futuro, sino entre el menor de los males disponibles.
A dos semanas de las elecciones presidenciales del 29 de mayo en Colombia, la última encuesta de TYSE —firma dirigida por el exdirector del Registro Civil, Carlos Ariel Sánchez Torres, y el especialista electoral Alfonso Portela Herrán— ofreció una imagen más compleja que la de una simple carrera entre favorito y perseguidor. Gustavo Petro, candidato de la coalición Pacto Histórico, lideraba con 36.64% de intención de voto entre los 8.000 encuestados, con un nivel de confianza del 97.3% y un margen de error inferior al 2.7%. Federico Gutiérrez, del Equipo Colombia, lo seguía a distancia con 21.40%.
Pero los números más reveladores no eran los de respaldo, sino los de rechazo. Gutiérrez enfrentaba una oposición activa del 37.66% —mayor que su propio apoyo—, mientras que Petro, pese a su ventaja, era rechazado por el 25.92% del electorado. Ninguno de los dos había logrado construir una coalición de entusiasmo genuino; ambos lideraban, en parte, porque los votantes habían descartado a los demás.
El panorama se complicaba aún más con un bloque de indecisos del 14.39% y un 6.19% dispuesto a votar en blanco, cifras suficientes para reconfigurar el resultado final. Rodolfo Hernández sumaba 10.90% y Sergio Fajardo un 6.06%, fragmentando todavía más un electorado sin mayorías consolidadas. Con menos de quince días para el cierre de campaña, Colombia se perfilaba como un país que no elegía entre proyectos, sino entre la opción menos objetable —una distinción que, en política, suele pesar tanto como la convicción.
Two weeks before Colombia's presidential election, a new survey painted a portrait of a race shaped less by enthusiasm than by rejection. Gustavo Petro, the leftist candidate from the Historic Pact coalition, held a commanding lead at 36.64 percent of likely voters, according to the final TYSE poll released Monday. His nearest competitor, Federico Gutiérrez of the Team Colombia coalition, trailed significantly at 21.40 percent. But the numbers told a more complicated story than a simple frontrunner advantage.
The poll, conducted by TYSE Technology and Electoral Services—a firm led by Carlos Ariel Sánchez Torres, a former national civil registry director, and Alfonso Portela Herrán, an electoral specialist—surveyed 8,000 people with a confidence level of 97.3 percent and a margin of error below 2.7 percent. The sample size and methodology suggested a reliable snapshot of voter sentiment heading into the May 29 vote.
Yet beneath Petro's lead lay a volatile electorate. The survey asked respondents not just whom they would support, but whom they would actively refuse to vote for. The results revealed deep reservations about both frontrunners. Gutiérrez faced rejection from 37.66 percent of voters—a higher rejection rate than his own support level. Petro, while more broadly acceptable, still faced opposition from 25.92 percent. Neither candidate had built a coalition of genuine enthusiasm; both were leading partly because voters had ruled out alternatives.
The undecided bloc remained substantial at 14.39 percent, a pool large enough to shift the race's trajectory in the final stretch. Another 6.19 percent indicated they would cast blank votes, a protest option that further fragmented the electorate. Rodolfo Hernández, a third-place candidate, drew 10.90 percent support, while Sergio Fajardo, the fifth candidate, registered 6.06 percent. The distribution suggested a race where no single candidate had consolidated broad support, and where the final outcome would depend heavily on how undecided voters broke and whether rejection rates would translate into actual votes against particular candidates.
With less than a fortnight remaining, the campaign faced a Colombian electorate that seemed to be choosing not between visions but between the least objectionable option. Petro's lead was real and substantial, but the high rejection rates for both him and his main rival suggested that the election's outcome would be determined as much by who voters wanted to keep out as by who they wanted to put in.
Citações Notáveis
The survey asked respondents not just whom they would support, but whom they would actively refuse to vote for— TYSE Technology and Electoral Services poll methodology
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Petro's lead feel less decisive than the numbers suggest?
Because 36 percent in a five-candidate race isn't a mandate—it's a plurality. More telling is that Gutiérrez has a higher rejection rate than his own support. Voters aren't rallying behind Petro; they're ruling out Gutiérrez.
So the undecided voters are the real story?
Partly. But also the blank votes and the third-place candidate. That 14 percent undecided plus 6 percent blank votes plus Hernández's 10 percent—that's 30 percent of the electorate still in motion. The race isn't settled.
What does it mean that Petro faces 25.92 percent rejection?
It means a quarter of voters have already decided they won't support him, no matter what happens in the next two weeks. That's a ceiling. He can't win those voters back. His path to victory depends on consolidating the undecided and on Gutiérrez's rejection rate actually translating into votes against him.
Is this poll reliable?
The methodology is solid—8,000 people, 97.3 percent confidence, under 2.7 percent margin of error. But polls measure intent, not behavior. What matters is whether people actually vote as they say they will, and whether the undecided break the way the pollsters expect.
What should we watch for in the final two weeks?
Whether Petro can hold his lead or whether Gutiérrez's rejection rate softens as voters focus on the choice before them. And whether that 14 percent undecided moves as a bloc or fragments further.