Drought to places that normally receive abundant rain and floods to places that are typically dry.
Beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific, heat is accumulating in patterns not seen in over a century, and scientists are now watching closely to see whether the ocean and atmosphere will conspire into a SuperNiño by late 2026. With an 82 percent probability that El Niño conditions emerge this summer and a 30 to 40 percent chance of reaching historic intensity, the world may be approaching a climate event capable of reshaping rainfall, igniting wildfires, and flooding coastlines across multiple continents. The ocean does not announce its intentions clearly, but the signals it is sending—warm subsurface anomalies, weakening rains over Indonesia, eastward-traveling heat pulses—are the same ones that preceded the catastrophic events of 1997 and 2015. Whether this becomes a moment of reckoning or a near miss, it reminds us that the planet's climate systems are deeply interconnected, and that what stirs in the deep Pacific does not stay there.
- Subsurface Pacific temperatures are already running 2 to 3 degrees above normal—the same fingerprint that preceded the two most destructive El Niños on record.
- NOAA places a 96 percent probability on El Niño persisting through the Northern Hemisphere's autumn and winter, making its arrival near-certain; the open question is how violent it becomes.
- Indonesia and Australia face serious drought and wildfire risk, while South American coastlines brace for flooding—a paradox in which El Niño simultaneously parches and drowns different parts of the world.
- Atlantic hurricane activity is expected to fall while Pacific storm frequency rises, redistributing danger rather than diminishing it.
- Scientists are still waiting for trade winds to weaken—the final trigger—meaning the full shape of this event remains unresolved, held in a tense atmospheric pause.
The Pacific is warming in ways not seen in nearly 150 years, and by late 2026 there is a 30 to 40 percent chance that ocean and atmosphere will lock into what scientists call a SuperNiño—an event intense enough to reshape rainfall across half the globe, drive devastating floods in some regions, and deepen droughts in others.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has already placed an 82 percent probability on El Niño emerging between May and July of this year, rising to 96 percent by autumn and winter. The real concern is not whether it arrives, but how strong it becomes. José Luis Camacho of Spain's State Meteorological Agency puts the odds of SuperNiño intensity at 30 to 40 percent—a level that would rival the historic events of 2015 and 1997.
The ocean is already sending its signals. Subsurface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are running 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal, mirroring the conditions that preceded both of those catastrophic events. Warm water pulses are traveling eastward from Asia toward the Americas, and the rains that normally drench Indonesia and the Philippines have already weakened. What remains is for the trade winds to falter—and when they do, the event will fully unfold.
For a SuperNiño to qualify, sea surface temperatures must exceed 2 degrees above the long-term average. Current projections suggest this event could reach between 2.4 and 2.8 degrees—surpassing the 2015 peak of 2.3 degrees and approaching the extremes of the 1877 event. The consequences would be unevenly distributed: drought and wildfire risk for Indonesia and Australia, intensifying rainfall and flooding along South America's western coast, and a global temperature increase of 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius.
Hurricane patterns would shift rather than simply worsen—fewer storms expected in the Atlantic, more in the Pacific. For Europe and Spain, the direct impact would be minimal; Camacho is clear that local heat waves owe far more to greenhouse gas warming and regional atmospheric systems than to distant Pacific temperatures.
The signals are present. The atmosphere has not yet fully aligned. Scientists are watching, and the world waits to learn whether this gathering heat will become one of the most powerful climate events in recorded history.
The Pacific is warming in ways that haven't been seen in nearly 150 years. By late 2026, there is a 30 to 40 percent chance that the ocean and atmosphere will align into what scientists call a SuperNiño—a weather event so intense it could reshape rainfall patterns across half the globe, trigger devastating floods in some places and crippling droughts in others, and add measurable heat to an already warming planet.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has already laid out the probabilities with unusual certainty. There is an 82 percent chance that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July of this year. By autumn and winter in the Northern Hemisphere, that probability climbs to 96 percent. But the real concern is not whether El Niño arrives—it almost certainly will. The question is how strong it becomes. José Luis Camacho, a spokesperson for Spain's State Meteorological Agency, told reporters that the odds of this event reaching SuperNiño intensity stand between 30 and 40 percent. If it does, it would rival the legendary events of 2015 and 1997, both of which caused extreme droughts and catastrophic flooding across multiple continents.
The warning comes from reading the ocean itself. Beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific, water temperatures are already running 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal—a signal that mirrors the conditions that preceded the two most intense El Niños on record. Francisco Martín, a physicist and science communicator, notes that these subsurface anomalies are "indirect reflections of what is coming." The water in the equatorial Pacific off South America's coast is already running a full degree warmer than expected. Across the tropical Pacific, heat is accumulating in the deep layers. Meanwhile, the usual rains that drench Indonesia and the Philippines have weakened or stopped entirely. Warm water pulses, called Kelvin waves, are traveling eastward from Asia toward the Americas. All that remains, Camacho explains, is for the trade winds to weaken—and when they do, the full event will unfold.
El Niño itself is a straightforward phenomenon in its mechanics, though global in its reach. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific rise by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius for a month or longer. But temperature alone is not enough. The trade winds that normally blow from east to west must weaken, or westerly winds must push into the lower atmosphere. The result is a disruption of ocean circulation that ripples outward. El Niño typically appears every three to seven years and lasts between 12 and 18 months. For a SuperNiño to develop, water temperatures must climb more than 2 degrees above the long-term average. The 1877-1878 event saw temperatures rise between 2.8 and 3.5 degrees. The 2015-2016 event reached 2.3 degrees. Current projections suggest this year's event could add between 2.4 and 2.8 degrees.
The global consequences would be severe and unevenly distributed. Indonesia faces the prospect of drought and heightened wildfire risk across its tropical forests. Australia could experience widespread drought, particularly if winter and spring rains fail and the Southern Hemisphere summer arrives with water deficits. On the opposite side of the Pacific, the western coast of South America could see rainfall intensify from October onward, bringing flooding to regions accustomed to aridity. Colombia's northern highlands might face water shortages instead. The pattern is paradoxical: El Niño brings drought to places that normally receive abundant rain and floods to places that are typically dry.
Hurricane patterns would shift as well. The Atlantic basin typically sees fewer hurricanes during El Niño years, while the Pacific sees more. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 55 percent probability that Atlantic hurricane activity will fall below normal during the June-to-November season, with perhaps six hurricanes expected. In the Pacific, the odds favor above-average activity at 70 percent, with as many as 14 hurricanes possible. The global temperature would climb by an additional 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius, and atmospheric humidity would increase.
For Europe and Spain specifically, the impact would be minimal. Weather patterns across the continent are driven primarily by other atmospheric systems—the polar jet stream, subtropical high-pressure systems, and the mechanisms of global warming itself. The current heat waves scorching Europe owe far more to these local and regional patterns than to distant Pacific temperatures. Camacho is direct on this point: "We cannot blame El Niño for what happens in Spain." Spain will likely experience a warmer-than-normal summer, but that warming stems from the planet's overall temperature rise, not from the Pacific. The contribution of greenhouse gases to global warming now exceeds the influence of El Niño itself.
What remains uncertain is whether the 30 to 40 percent probability will materialize. The ocean is sending signals, but the final outcome depends on atmospheric conditions that have not yet fully aligned. Scientists are watching closely. If this SuperNiño does arrive, it will be one of the most powerful on record, reshaping weather and water availability for hundreds of millions of people across the Pacific basin and beyond.
Citas Notables
These warm anomalies are indirect reflections of what is coming— Francisco Martín, physicist and science communicator
We cannot blame El Niño for what happens in Spain— José Luis Camacho, Spanish State Meteorological Agency
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the ocean temperature matter so much if it's just a few degrees?
Because those few degrees change how water moves and where rain falls. When the Pacific warms that much, it disrupts wind patterns that have been stable for months. The consequences cascade—droughts in one hemisphere, floods in another.
You mentioned this could be the strongest since the 1870s. What made those earlier events so destructive?
The 1877-1878 event coincided with widespread crop failures and famine across multiple continents. We have better warning systems now, but the underlying physics is the same. More heat in the ocean means more energy in the atmosphere.
If Europe barely feels El Niño, why should Europeans care?
Because the global food system is interconnected. When Australia and Indonesia face drought, grain prices rise everywhere. When South America floods, coffee and other crops suffer. The impacts travel through trade and supply chains.
Is this connected to climate change, or is it separate?
It's both. El Niño is a natural cycle that has occurred for millennia. But the baseline temperature of the ocean is higher now because of greenhouse gases. So even a natural El Niño event unfolds on top of a warmer planet.
What would change if this doesn't reach SuperNiño intensity?
The difference between a strong El Niño and a SuperNiño might be the difference between severe drought in Indonesia and catastrophic drought. Between manageable flooding in Peru and devastating floods. Tenths of a degree matter when you're talking about water and agriculture.
When will we know for certain?
The trade winds are the key. Once they weaken significantly, the warm water will spread across the Pacific and the event will be locked in. We should have clarity within weeks.