Thermal generation multiplied nearly six times in four months
Beneath the relentless sun of an unprecedented heat wave, El Salvador finds itself caught in a familiar human bind: the more relief its people seek, the greater the cost they must bear. From January to April 2026, the country's dependence on oil-fired thermal power grew nearly sixfold, pushing electricity prices to $135 per megawatt-hour as crude oil surpassed $100 a barrel. It is a story as old as industrial civilization — nature's extremes pressing against the limits of infrastructure and budget — and one that may deepen before it eases.
- A punishing heat wave has driven air conditioning demand to levels that El Salvador's cheaper energy sources cannot meet alone, forcing the grid into costly overdrive.
- Thermal generation — the most expensive and fossil-fuel-dependent option — surged nearly six times over in just four months, now shouldering 10 percent of national electricity demand.
- The price of each megawatt-hour of thermal power climbed more than $50 since January, reaching $135 in April, with crude oil trading above $100 a barrel offering no relief in sight.
- Authorities face a stark dilemma with no easy exit: sustain expensive thermal output or risk blackouts during peak demand hours as summer approaches.
- Monthly data from the country's Unit of Transactions shows an unbroken upward climb in thermal reliance, signaling that household electricity bills and national energy budgets may face further strain.
El Salvador's power grid is under simultaneous pressure from the sky and the market. In April 2026, thermal plants generated 66.66 gigawatt-hours — their highest output in nearly a year — as an intense heat wave pushed air conditioning demand far beyond what the country's cheaper energy sources could absorb. Total national consumption reached 635.94 gigawatt-hours, a 5.5 percent increase over the same month the previous year.
The speed of the shift is what makes the situation alarming. In January, thermal generation contributed just 11.74 gigawatt-hours, barely 2 percent of national supply. By March it had reached 38.34 gigawatt-hours, and by April it covered more than 10 percent of demand — a nearly sixfold multiplication in four months. Each step of that climb came with a rising price tag.
Thermal electricity depends on crude oil, and crude has grown expensive. With barrels trading above $100, the cost per megawatt-hour of thermal power reached approximately $135 in April — more than $50 higher than in January, when the same unit cost $85.28. For a nation managing tight energy finances, the arithmetic offers little comfort.
With no sign of temperatures easing and oil markets remaining volatile, El Salvador must choose between absorbing the cost of thermal generation or risking blackouts during peak hours. The steady monthly climb recorded through April suggests the country may not yet have seen the worst of it, leaving both household electricity bills and broader energy policy under mounting pressure as summer unfolds.
El Salvador's power grid is running hot—literally and financially. In April, the country's thermal power plants generated 66.66 gigawatt-hours of electricity, the highest output since May of the previous year, driven by a punishing heat wave that sent air conditioning demand through the roof. The numbers tell the story of a nation caught between necessity and expense.
Total electricity consumption across the country reached 635.94 gigawatt-hours in April, a jump of 5.5 percent compared to the same month a year earlier, when plants had delivered 602.49 gigawatt-hours. Thermal generation—the expensive kind, dependent on burning fossil fuels—accounted for just over 10 percent of that total demand. But the trajectory matters more than the snapshot. In January, thermal plants contributed only 11.74 gigawatt-hours to the grid, representing less than 2 percent of the nation's power supply. By March, that figure had climbed to 38.34 gigawatt-hours, or 5.58 percent of demand. In four months, thermal generation had multiplied nearly six times over.
The cost of this escalation is steep and getting steeper. Thermal power depends on crude oil, and crude has become expensive. Barrels were trading above $100 apiece, pushing the price of a megawatt-hour of thermal electricity to approximately $135 in April. That represents the highest cost since May of the previous year—a jump of more than $50 per megawatt-hour compared to January 2026, when the same unit of power cost $85.28. For a country already managing tight energy budgets, the math is unforgiving.
The heat wave is not a temporary inconvenience. As long as temperatures remain elevated and oil prices stay volatile, El Salvador faces a difficult choice: rely on expensive thermal generation to meet demand, or risk blackouts during peak hours. The data from the country's Unit of Transactions shows no sign of relief. Each month from January through April tracked a steady climb in thermal reliance, suggesting that the worst may not yet be behind. The question now is whether this pattern will persist through the summer months ahead, and what that means for household electricity bills and the nation's energy infrastructure.
Citações Notáveis
Thermal energy generation is more expensive because it depends on petroleum, whose price has surged above $100 per barrel— Unit of Transactions (UT)
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does El Salvador need thermal power at all? Don't they have other options?
They do—hydro, solar, wind. But a heat wave means two things at once: less water for hydroelectric dams, and massive air conditioning demand. Thermal plants are the backup, the safety valve. The problem is they're expensive and they run on oil.
So the heat wave created a double bind.
Exactly. The hotter it gets, the more power people need. The less water flows to dams. And the only way to fill that gap is to burn more fuel. It's a trap.
And oil prices made it worse.
Oil went above $100 a barrel. That directly feeds into the cost of thermal electricity. In January it was $85 per megawatt-hour. By April it was $135. That's not a small swing for a country like El Salvador.
What happens if this continues through summer?
Electricity bills rise. Households and businesses feel it immediately. The utility has to decide whether to pass costs along or absorb them. Either way, something gives.