AI reshapes retail: 90% of food sales may bypass brands by 2040

The emotional connection is the only thing that saves you.
A brand executive explains why younger consumers will abandon products without deeper ties to them.

En las salas de conferencias de Barcelona, donde el comercio minorista global se reúne para imaginar su futuro, emerge una verdad incómoda: la inteligencia artificial no solo está transformando cómo compramos, sino disolviendo la confianza que las marcas tardaron décadas en construir. Para 2040, más del 90% del volumen de alimentos envasados podría venderse sin que el nombre de la marca importe, dejando a las empresas ante una pregunta existencial sobre qué significa, en la era de la información perfecta, ganarse la lealtad de un ser humano.

  • La IA ha desplazado al vendedor humano en el momento decisivo de la compra, entregando al consumidor información perfecta y quitándole a las marcas su principal ventaja histórica.
  • La Generación Alpha no recuerda marcas sin un vínculo emocional, lo que convierte la nostalgia y el prestigio heredado en activos que se evaporan ante sus ojos.
  • Empresas como Worten han apostado todo al comercio electrónico, pero descubren que el tráfico digital mengua y que ninguna IA propia puede aún reemplazar su dependencia de Google.
  • Volkswagen revela el síntoma más agudo del cambio: los clientes visitan el concesionario menos de una vez antes de comprar un coche, llegando con la decisión ya tomada.
  • La respuesta que emerge no es tecnológica sino profundamente humana: escucha activa, confianza construida por empleados con conocimiento real y experiencias físicas que ningún algoritmo puede replicar.

En un congreso celebrado en Barcelona en el marco de ShopTalk Europe, un grupo de directivos del sector minorista se enfrentó a una predicción que pocos estaban dispuestos a ignorar. Marc Coloma, CEO de Heura Foods, advirtió que para 2040 más del 90% de los productos de alimentación envasados se venderán sin depender del reconocimiento de marca. La razón es generacional y estructural: la Generación Alpha, los niños nacidos a partir de 2010, no retiene el nombre de una marca salvo que esta haya construido un vínculo emocional genuino.

El evento, organizado por Expansión con la colaboración de BBVA y presentado por Olga Escriu, puso sobre la mesa el impacto de la inteligencia artificial en el corazón del comercio. La IA ha colonizado el momento de la decisión de compra: los consumidores acceden hoy a información perfecta, comparan precios en segundos y leen valoraciones al instante. Para las marcas, esto crea una paradoja cruel: más información disponible significa menos diferenciación posible. Coloma lo ilustró con una imagen provocadora: en pocos años, un Casio y un Rolex podrían ser equivalentes a los ojos del consumidor, porque las prioridades habrán cambiado por completo.

Heura Foods ha respondido apostando por el valor científico de sus ingredientes vegetales y por el conocimiento humano necesario para mejorarlos, consciente de que la calidad del producto ya no basta por sí sola. Fernando Siles Martin, responsable de marketing digital de Worten España, reconoció que su empresa sigue dependiendo de Google para gestionar el tráfico hacia su tienda online, sin que ningún sistema de IA propio haya podido asumir esa función. Worten cerró todas sus tiendas físicas en España en 2021 y se especializó en la venta de grandes electrodomésticos online, una apuesta que funcionó, pero que también reveló otra paradoja: la ausencia de tiendas físicas obliga a invertir más en las que quedan y en los servicios que ofrecen.

Porque el espacio físico conserva una ventaja que ningún algoritmo ha logrado replicar: la capacidad de escuchar activamente, de generar confianza a través del conocimiento del empleado y de ofrecer una experiencia directa con el producto. Pedro Mateos, responsable de experiencia de cliente en Volkswagen, lo describió como la clave para competir con la IA en fidelización. La red de concesionarios de la marca alemana opera sobre un principio de confianza que resulta especialmente valioso en sectores donde lo que se compra hoy requiere servicio mañana. Hace una década, un cliente visitaba el concesionario tres veces antes de comprar un coche; ahora llega habiendo tomado ya la decisión. El tsunami tecnológico, concluyó Mateos, apenas está mostrando su punta.

In a Barcelona conference room not far from the ShopTalk Europe retail congress, a group of industry executives gathered to discuss a future that most of them found unsettling. By 2040, Marc Coloma, the CEO of Heura Foods, told the assembled crowd, more than nine in ten units of packaged food sold in stores will not come from recognizable brands. The shift is already visible in how younger consumers behave. Generation Alpha—children born in 2010—cannot recall a brand from six months ago unless that brand has built something deeper: an emotional connection, a reason to care beyond the product itself.

This prediction, shared at an event organized by Expansión in collaboration with BBVA and presented by Olga Escriu, a BBVA executive overseeing business solutions in Catalonia, marks a turning point for retail. The industry has been reshaped at dizzying speed by artificial intelligence, and now faces a future that touches every company, large and small. The problem is structural. AI has taken over the moment when customers decide what to buy. Consumers now have access to perfect information—they can compare prices, read reviews, understand specifications instantly. For brands, this creates a paradox: it has become harder, not easier, to build relationships that matter. Coloma offered a stark comparison. In a few years, he suggested, a Casio watch and a Rolex will be functionally equivalent in the eyes of consumers, because people will have moved on to other priorities. They will be more conscious, more expert, less swayed by heritage or prestige.

Heura Foods, which makes plant-based meat in a category crowded with private-label competitors, has chosen a different path. Rather than fight on brand alone, the company is betting on extracting more value from its raw materials—organic, plant-based ingredients—and on the scientific knowledge required to improve them. That work, Coloma argued, still requires humans. But in the competitive world of retail, product quality has long since stopped being the only lever. Visibility matters. Search engine optimization matters. The ability to appear first when a customer searches online matters enormously.

Fernando Siles Martin, who runs digital marketing for Worten España, an electronics retailer, acknowledged a hard truth. His company still relies on Google to manage the traffic flowing to its online store. No AI system has yet emerged that could reliably take over that function and move it entirely in-house. Meanwhile, the traffic itself is declining. Worten made a decisive bet on e-commerce years ago. In Spain, the company has operated no physical stores since 2021, when it closed half of them and sold the rest to Media Markt. The shift was not simply about abandoning brick-and-mortar; it was about specialization. Worten focused on selling large appliances online, a market that was emerging at the time. That strategy worked. But it also revealed a paradox: the disappearance of physical stores reduces a company's presence, yet forces it to invest more heavily in the stores that remain and in the services they offer.

Because despite the supremacy of AI, the physical space still holds an advantage. It is the one place where human beings can offer something a algorithm cannot: active listening, trust built through employee knowledge, direct experience with a product in hand. Pedro Mateos, who oversees customer experience and digital transformation at Volkswagen, described this as the recipe for competing with AI when it comes to customer loyalty. The German automaker's vast network of dealerships operates on a principle of trust. That matters especially in industries where what you buy today requires service tomorrow.

Mateos offered a revealing statistic. A decade ago, customers visited a dealership three times before buying a car. Now they visit fewer than once. The decision has already been made before they walk through the door. This forces Volkswagen to work on multiple fronts simultaneously: the physical point of sale, where the salesperson's value must be made visible; and the online point of sale, where the brand must earn a reputation as a trusted authority. The technological tsunami washing over retail, Mateos concluded, is only beginning. We are seeing the tip of the iceberg.

In a few years, a Casio watch and a Rolex will be functionally equivalent in the eyes of consumers, because people will have moved on to other priorities.
— Marc Coloma, CEO of Heura Foods
The technological tsunami washing over retail is only beginning. We are seeing the tip of the iceberg.
— Pedro Mateos, Volkswagen director of customer experience and digital transformation
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Inventor

So if 90% of food sales won't come from brands by 2040, what exactly will they come from?

Model

Private labels, mostly. Store brands. Retailers will own the relationship with the customer directly, and they'll use AI to figure out what that customer wants before the customer even knows. Brands become invisible.

Inventor

But Heura is a brand. How does a company like that survive?

Model

By doing something a private label can't easily copy. Heura is betting on scientific innovation in plant-based ingredients—knowledge that takes years to build. They're saying: we're not competing on brand love anymore. We're competing on what we know how to do that others don't.

Inventor

That sounds exhausting. Constantly innovating just to stay relevant.

Model

It is. But the alternative is worse. If you're just another name on a shelf, and the customer can't remember you six months later, you're already gone. The emotional connection is the only thing that saves you.

Inventor

What about the physical store? Is that really still an advantage?

Model

It's the last place where a human can do something AI can't—listen to you, understand your specific situation, build trust. Volkswagen knows customers make their decision online now, but they still need that dealership because you can't buy a car and never talk to a person. The service after the sale matters.

Inventor

So the future is: AI handles the decision, humans handle the relationship?

Model

Exactly. And companies that understand that distinction will survive. The ones that don't will disappear.

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