El Niño threatens 3 million in Papua New Guinea with severe food shortages

Up to 3 million people across PNG face food shortages and malnutrition risk, with 1.9 million in the Highlands experiencing depleted harvests and reduced meal frequency.
We wept, as these gardens are not only for us to eat but also our income.
Martha John, a 62-year-old farmer in Chimbu province, describing the moment frost destroyed her family's crops and livelihood.

El Niño has brought unprecedented frost and drought to PNG's agricultural heartland, destroying staple crops and leaving farming families with only 2-3 months of food supplies remaining. Oxfam identifies PNG as the Pacific's worst-hit nation, with 1.9 million people in the Highlands alone facing malnutrition risks as water sources dry up and food variety diminishes.

  • Up to 3 million people across Papua New Guinea face food shortages; 1.9 million in the Highlands alone
  • Oxfam identifies PNG as the Pacific's worst-hit country from El Niño
  • Some farming families have only 2-3 months of food supplies remaining
  • Rainfall has been below average for nearly a year; frost and drought have destroyed staple crops
  • A potato farmer lost half his crop, forfeiting approximately US$2,200 in income

El Niño-driven frost and drought have devastated food gardens across Papua New Guinea's Highlands, with Oxfam warning up to 3 million people face hunger as crop failures threaten both sustenance and livelihoods.

The frost came without warning to John Wankar's garden in Tambul, Western Highlands province. He woke one morning last week to find his vegetables and staple crops blackened and destroyed, the plants that fed his family and generated their income reduced to loss. Across Papua New Guinea's Highlands, thousands of farming families woke to similar devastation as El Niño shifted rainfall patterns away from the country and allowed nighttime temperatures to plummet below freezing. The weather system has brought prolonged drought, falling water levels, and killing frosts to some of the nation's most productive agricultural regions—and the consequences are spreading fast.

Oxfam estimates that up to 3 million people across Papua New Guinea now face severe food shortages, with 1.9 million concentrated in the Highlands alone. The aid organization identifies PNG as the Pacific's worst-hit country from the current El Niño pattern. Rainfall has been below average for nearly a year. Combined with frost damage and invasive pests, the impact has been catastrophic for communities that depend almost entirely on subsistence farming. Some households report that their remaining food supplies will last only two to three months. As meals shrink and dietary variety narrows, malnutrition risk rises sharply, particularly among children and the elderly.

In Kundiawa-Gembogl district in Chimbu province, Martha John, 62, described the moment the frost swept through her community. "Last week Wednesday, all our gardens were covered in frost," she said. "We wept, as these gardens are not only for us to eat but also our income. We have been growing potato and selling them in bulks, and all my children and grandchildren depend on this food for eating and also for income." The loss is not merely about hunger—it is about the collapse of the economic foundation that holds these families together. A potato farmer assessed by the National Agriculture Research Institute lost half his crop to frost; under normal conditions, that harvest would have generated more than K10,000 (roughly US$2,200) through local buyers paying K3 per kilogram.

The crisis extends beyond the gardens. Rivers and creeks have dried up across affected regions, forcing communities to search for alternative water sources. Schools in some areas have reduced their operating hours because of heat and water shortages. The National Weather Service director, Jimmy Gomoga, warned that El Niño conditions are expected to influence weather patterns across the country for months to come. Prime Minister James Marape has directed all provinces and districts to assess their vulnerable populations, identify water sources, and prepare for what may be an extended and severe dry season. "This is a time for preparedness, not panic," he said, though the distinction rings hollow for families already rationing meals.

The impact is not confined to Papua New Guinea. Across the Pacific, as many as 4.7 million people face heightened risks of hunger, poverty, and disease. Vanuatu, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Samoa, and Tonga are experiencing worsening drought. Kiribati and Tuvalu brace for flooding and rising sea levels. But it is in the Highlands of Papua New Guinea—where agriculture has sustained communities for generations—that the immediate human toll is most acute. With assessments confirming reduced rainfall, declining water sources, and moisture stress affecting food gardens across multiple provinces, the question facing millions is no longer whether hardship is coming, but how long they will have to endure it.

Last week Wednesday, all our gardens were covered in frost. We wept, as these gardens are not only for us to eat but also our income.
— Martha John, 62, farmer in Kundiawa-Gembogl district, Chimbu province
This is a time for preparedness, not panic. Every district and every province must know its vulnerable areas, know its water sources, protect its people and prepare early.
— Prime Minister James Marape
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Inventor

Why is Papua New Guinea being hit so much harder than other Pacific nations?

Model

Geography and economy. The Highlands are the agricultural heart of the country—most families grow their own food and sell surplus for income. When frost and drought hit there, it's not just one sector failing. It's the entire survival system for millions of people at once.

Inventor

The frost seems almost counterintuitive in a tropical country. How does El Niño cause that?

Model

El Niño shifts rainfall patterns away from the region, which means less cloud cover. Without clouds to trap heat at night, temperatures in the Highlands drop rapidly—sometimes below freezing. It's the absence of moisture that creates the cold, not the presence of it.

Inventor

When Martha John said "we wept," was that about hunger, or something deeper?

Model

Both. But listen to what she emphasized: the gardens feed her children and grandchildren, and they also generate income. When frost destroys the garden, she loses food security and her ability to provide for her extended family. That's not just scarcity—that's the loss of her role as a provider.

Inventor

The government says "preparedness, not panic." Is that realistic?

Model

It's a reasonable call if you have resources and time. But when families have two to three months of food left and water sources are drying up, preparedness becomes a luxury. The real question is whether the government can actually deliver water, seeds, or food aid before the crisis deepens.

Inventor

What happens in three months if conditions don't improve?

Model

That's what keeps officials and aid agencies awake. The weather service says El Niño will persist for months. If it does, you're looking at acute malnutrition, possible disease outbreaks from poor water access, and communities that have exhausted every coping mechanism they have.

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