Whoever does not debate demonstrates incompetence
Cepeda leads all polls with 37% support; ultraright De la Espriella holds second at 20.4%, while uribista Valencia trails at 15.6%. Former Foreign Minister Murillo withdraws candidacy to back Cepeda; Char family endorses De la Espriella despite his anti-establishment rhetoric.
- Iván Cepeda leads all polls with 37% support in the May 31 first-round vote
- Abelardo de la Espriella holds second at 20.4%, Paloma Valencia third at 15.6%
- Former Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws candidacy to back Cepeda
- Polling firm GAD3 suspends operations due to restrictive new electoral regulations
- Electoral authority investigates De la Espriella's candidacy over alleged fraudulent signatures
Colombia's May 31 presidential election heats up as left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda consolidates polling leads while right-wing rivals clash over debate participation and campaign legitimacy.
Colombia's presidential race is tightening into its final stretch, with the May 31 election now less than four weeks away. The left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda has consolidated a commanding lead across every major poll, drawing 37 percent support in the most recent survey from the Centro Nacional de Consultoría, released in early May. Behind him, the ultraright lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella holds second place at 20.4 percent, while the uribista senator Paloma Valencia trails at 15.6 percent. The gap is substantial enough that Cepeda's campaign has begun the work of coalition-building—the traditional endgame of Colombian politics—pulling in figures from across the fractured center and moderate left.
On Wednesday morning, former Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo walked into a campaign event in central Bogotá and announced he was withdrawing his independent presidential bid to join Cepeda's effort. Murillo, who had served as environment minister under Juan Manuel Santos and later as ambassador to the United States and foreign minister under Gustavo Petro, had launched his own candidacy a year earlier as a self-styled antidote to polarization. His campaign never gained traction in the polls, and his decision to step aside and endorse Cepeda represented the latest in a series of consolidations around the frontrunner. Earlier, the centrist Alianza Verde party had thrown its support behind Cepeda, as had former Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo and his party En Marcha. Murillo's arrival signals confidence in Cepeda's path to a first-round victory. "We have decided to decline my presidential aspiration and adhere to his campaign," Murillo said at the event. "This is a decision that aligns with Colombia's future." He urged supporters to work harder, not to grow complacent, and to aim for victory in the first round itself.
On the right side of the ballot, the picture is far messier. The Char family, one of the Caribbean coast's most powerful political clans, announced plans to formally endorse De la Espriella this weekend in Barranquilla—a significant show of force in a region where electoral power is fiercely contested between left and right. Yet the endorsement sits uneasily with De la Espriella's central campaign message: that he represents the "never" against the "always," the outsiders against the entrenched political establishment. The Char family are very much of the always. De la Espriella has built his candidacy on a promise to break with traditional power brokers, yet he is now accepting the backing of one of Colombia's most traditional power brokers. When pressed on the contradiction, he has offered no clear answer.
Meanwhile, Valencia and De la Espriella have begun trading barbs over debate participation. Valencia proposed a three-person debate between herself, De la Espriella, and Cepeda—effectively cutting out the centrist candidates Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López. De la Espriella declined, saying Valencia had previously rejected a debate moderated by the news anchor Luis Carlos Vélez. Valencia shot back that De la Espriella himself refuses to debate, undermining his claims of democratic commitment. Fajardo, the centrist candidate, seized on the exchange to criticize both of them for wanting to narrow the field. "Whoever does not debate demonstrates incompetence," he said at a press conference where he unveiled a five-point education platform aimed at ensuring birthplace does not determine destiny. His running mate, Edna Bonilla, a former education secretary of Bogotá, added that democracy is built through debate and ideas, not through their avoidance.
The campaign has grown increasingly personal and acrimonious. Cepeda, the left-wing frontrunner, clashed on social media with Tomás Uribe, one of the sons of former president Álvaro Uribe, the intellectual godfather of Colombia's right. Tomás Uribe called Cepeda "the heir of the FARC," a charge the right has leveled repeatedly. Cepeda responded by calling him a liar and reminding him that he is the nephew of Santiago Uribe, Álvaro's younger brother, who was sentenced to 28 years in prison in 2024 for his role in forming and leading a paramilitary group called Los 12 Apóstoles and for the murder of a bus driver named Camilo Barrientos. The exchange underscored the deep historical grievances that continue to shape Colombian politics.
Interior Minister Armando Benedetti, who is technically barred from participating in electoral politics but oversees security for the May 31 vote, took to social media to attack three young influencers close to De la Espriella's campaign. The influencers—Miguel Zárate, Santiago Giraldo, and Vicenth Ramos—had posted videos speculating that Benedetti was secretly backing Valencia because his sister supports her and because he had previously said Valencia would have better odds against Cepeda in a runoff. Benedetti denied the charge and called the three "small-time hustlers" and "criminals" who have worked with criminals. "Everyone who has messed with me in a campaign ends up badly," he said, adding an ominous warning that echoed President Petro's framing of the election as a choice between the "campaign of life" and the "campaign of death." De la Espriella's camp accused Benedetti of threatening the influencers, and several uribista senators, including Paola Holguín, criticized the minister for illegally participating in politics.
One significant development has been the withdrawal of GAD3, the Spanish polling firm contracted by the RCN network, from the Colombian market. The firm cited new electoral regulations governing opinion research as making rigorous polling impossible. The rules, which GAD3 said would invalidate not just telephone surveys but also in-person interviews, online panels, and mixed methodologies, have been widely criticized by pollsters as a "gag law." With GAD3 gone, only four polling firms remain active in the race. The last survey GAD3 released showed Cepeda at 36 percent, De la Espriella at 21 percent, and Valencia at 13 percent—numbers broadly consistent with other recent measurements.
De la Espriella also faces a separate challenge: the electoral authority has opened an investigation into whether he submitted fraudulent signatures when registering his candidacy. A citizen named Marceliano Julio Fonseca filed a complaint alleging that De la Espriella's supporting documents included forged signatures and signatures not in the handwriting of the citizens who supposedly signed them. The electoral authority asked the national registry to examine possible inconsistencies. De la Espriella dismissed the complaint as a "legal trick" by opponents trying to knock him out of the race, insisting that all his signatures had been verified and validated by the registry at the time of his registration. With less than a month until the vote, the race remains fluid on the right, uncertain in the center, and firmly in Cepeda's grasp on the left.
Citas Notables
This is a decision that aligns with Colombia's future. We came here to win in the first round.— Luis Gilberto Murillo, former Foreign Minister, announcing his endorsement of Iván Cepeda
All the signatures were verified and validated by the National Registry at the time, and my registration was accepted and backed by the Council of State.— Abelardo de la Espriella, responding to electoral authority investigation into his candidacy
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why is Murillo's withdrawal so significant? He was polling at almost nothing.
Because it signals that the center has decided the race is over. Murillo was the last major centrist figure still holding out for his own candidacy. His exit means there's no longer a credible alternative to Cepeda on the left or center-left. It consolidates the vote.
But Cepeda already had a huge lead. Does one more endorsement really matter?
Not in terms of raw votes—Murillo's supporters were scattered. What matters is momentum and legitimacy. When figures like Murillo, who positioned himself as above politics, decide to join you, it tells undecided voters that even the skeptics believe you're the inevitable choice.
Let's talk about the Char family backing De la Espriella. That seems to contradict everything he says.
It does. De la Espriella's entire pitch is that he's the outsider, the "never" against the "always." The Char family are the definition of always—they've been in Caribbean politics for decades. But he needs their machinery, their money, their reach in that region. So he takes the endorsement and hopes nobody notices the hypocrisy.
Will people notice?
Some will. But De la Espriella's voters may not care. His base is angry at the establishment, but they're also pragmatic. They want someone who can beat Cepeda. If the Char family helps him do that, the contradiction becomes secondary.
What's the real story with Benedetti and those influencers?
It's a proxy war. De la Espriella's camp is trying to sow doubt about whether the government is rigging things. Benedetti is responding by showing force, by saying: don't mess with us. But in doing so, he's also proving their point—that the government is using its power to intimidate opponents. It's a lose-lose for the administration.
And GAD3 leaving—is that about the law or about something else?
The law is real and genuinely restrictive. But GAD3's exit also removes one source of data that might contradict the narrative Cepeda's team wants to tell. With fewer pollsters, there's less independent verification of what's actually happening in the race. That benefits the frontrunner.