Colombia's 2026 Presidential Race: Cepeda Leads as Right Fractures Over Valencia

Colombia's presidential race is fracturing along unexpected lines as the May 31 election approaches. The Green Party, once a coherent centrist force, has split irreconcilably over whom to support. The party's national leadership voted 32-to-1 to accept Senator Jonathan Ferney Pulido Hernández's request to leave the coalition, marking a symbolic end to what had been a unified political home. But the real rupture came over the party's decision to negotiate a programmatic agreement with leftist candidate Iván Cepeda—a move that prompted Senator Katherine Miranda to publicly denounce the party for blocking support for two of its own founding figures, centrist candidates Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López. "It's an undemocratic decision," Miranda said, choosing instead to back right-wing Paloma Valencia. Senator Angélica Lozano called it "the sad final chapter" of the party. Most Green lawmakers, however, have sided with Cepeda, who leads every poll.

Cepeda maintains a commanding position. The latest surveys show him at 34 to 35 percent, with a runoff advantage over every rival. Against Valencia, the numbers tighten to near-parity—43.3 percent for Cepeda versus 42.9 for Valencia, within the margin of error. Valencia herself has surged dramatically since winning the right's primary election on March 8, jumping from 4.1 percent to 22.2 percent in one poll. She has consolidated support from former ministers and mayors of previous administrations, signaling that traditional conservative machinery is coalescing behind her. Yet the right remains fractured. Ultra-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella, polling second at around 21 percent, has rejected any alliance with traditional parties, accusing Valencia of accepting endorsements from the old political establishment. "Extreme coherence," he called his refusal. Valencia shot back that she has made no ministerial promises and that her hands are clean.

Meanwhile, journalist Vicky Dávila has executed a striking political reversal. She abandoned her own presidential bid after losing the right's primary and initially committed to campaigning for Valencia. Instead, she has reactivated her YouTube channel to conduct interviews—first with former president Álvaro Uribe, then, more provocatively, with de la Espriella himself. "The journalist's heart in me is itching," she told Uribe. In her interview with de la Espriella, she explicitly stated she was not representing any political project, only asking questions. The conversation touched on de la Espriella's alleged ties to Venezuelan businessman Alex Saab, which de la Espriella denied, saying he had not spoken to Saab in seven years.

Cepeda faces mounting pressure from multiple directions. Former president Uribe, without presenting evidence, has accused him of orchestrating the assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay and of plotting to kill Uribe himself. Uribe's claim rests on Cepeda's role as a mediator in the FARC peace accord, from which dissidents Jesús Santrich and Iván Márquez later broke away to form the Second Marquetalia, now suspected in the Turbay killing. Cepeda has demanded that Uribe present his accusations to the courts rather than the press. "Responsibility to the country demands we turn to institutions and let justice clarify the facts based on verifiable evidence," Cepeda wrote. He has also faced criticism for his muted response to a scandal involving a party held in Itagüí prison for leaders of criminal bands negotiating with the government. When asked about it, Cepeda said authorities should investigate but added, "Don't expect statements against the peace." Rivals Sergio Fajardo and Paloma Valencia both attacked his silence as complicit and incoherent.

International scrutiny has added another layer of complexity. The New York Times reported that two U.S. federal prosecutors are investigating President Gustavo Petro for possible ties to drug traffickers. Petro denied the allegations on social media, writing that he has never spoken to a drug trafficker and has spent a decade exposing links between narcotics kingpins and Colombian politicians. His debate chief, Senator María José Pizarro, questioned whether the investigation represented foreign interference. Valencia, however, called on U.S. authorities to pursue the matter fully—a move that drew accusations from the left of inviting external pressure on Colombia's sovereignty.

The electoral machinery itself has become a point of contention. The government, through Interior Minister Armando Benedetti, has requested access to audit the source code and software used for vote counting, citing concerns about potential fraud. The National Registry has resisted, arguing that exposing the code would make the system vulnerable to hacking. An electoral observation mission reported a 99.8 percent correspondence between preliminary counts and final tallies in the March legislative elections, offering some reassurance about integrity. The ballot order was determined by lottery: Cepeda appears first, de la Espriella fifth, Valencia twelfth. With forty-six days until the first round, the race remains volatile. Cepeda's lead appears durable, but the fracturing of traditional coalitions and the intensity of personal attacks suggest that the final weeks could still reshape the contest.