The surge suggests she's consolidating the right-wing vote in a way De la Espriella couldn't.
Sexual harassment allegations emerge against Vice Minister of Equality Acxan Duque, with candidate Paloma Valencia demanding urgent protective measures for the alleged victim. Latest polls show Iván Cepeda leading with 34-35% support, while Paloma Valencia surges to 16-22%, creating a competitive three-way race on the right.
- Iván Cepeda leads with 34-35% support; Paloma Valencia surged to 16-22%; Abelardo de la Espriella at 21%
- Sexual harassment allegations against Vice Minister Acxan Duque for sending explicit images without consent
- Ballot lottery placed Cepeda in position 1, Valencia in position 12, De la Espriella in position 5
- U.S. federal prosecutors investigating President Petro for alleged drug trafficking links
- Election scheduled for May 31, 2026; less than three months remain
Colombia's May 31 presidential election heats up with sexual harassment allegations against a government official, ballot position lottery results, and intensifying campaign tensions between left-wing frontrunner Iván Cepeda and right-wing candidates Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella.
Colombia's presidential race is entering its final stretch with less than three months until voting day on May 31, and the campaign has begun to show its teeth. A sexual harassment scandal erupted when Paloma Valencia, the right-wing candidate from the Centro Democrático party, publicly denounced allegations that Vice Minister of Equality Acxan Duque sent explicit images to a government employee without consent. Valencia demanded urgent action from prosecutors and human rights authorities to protect the alleged victim, requesting that she be allowed to work from home while investigations proceed. The accusation marks an early flashpoint in what is shaping up to be a bruising general election.
The ballot itself took shape this week when electoral officials conducted a lottery to determine candidate positions. Iván Cepeda, the left-wing frontrunner from the Pacto Histórico, drew the first spot—a symbolic advantage in a fifteen-candidate field. Abelardo de la Espriella, the ultraconservative lawyer, landed in position five. Valencia secured spot twelve. The lottery is a routine procedural matter, but in a tight race, even small advantages carry weight. The ballot will include fifteen positions, with the final slot reserved for blank votes.
The polling numbers tell the story of a race in flux. Cepeda maintains a commanding lead with between 34 and 35 percent support across recent surveys, though his margin has narrowed slightly from earlier measurements. But the real movement is happening on the right side of the spectrum. Valencia has experienced a dramatic surge, jumping from just 4 percent in early February to between 16 and 22 percent by late March—a five-fold increase in a matter of weeks. De la Espriella, who had been the dominant right-wing candidate, has begun to lose ground, dropping from 26 percent to 21 percent. In head-to-head runoff scenarios, Cepeda defeats both rivals, though a hypothetical matchup between Cepeda and Valencia shows the race tightening considerably, with some polls registering a statistical tie within the margin of error.
The surge in Valencia's support has created visible tension between the two leading right-wing candidates. De la Espriella has criticized Valencia for accepting endorsements from traditional political parties and former government officials, accusing her of abandoning the independent posture he claims to represent. Valencia has pushed back, insisting she has not promised ministerial positions in exchange for support and pointing to her reputation for transparency. The friction reflects a genuine competition for conservative voters, with the stakes rising as the election approaches. De la Espriella has even offered to campaign for Valencia in a runoff against a left-wing opponent—an offer that now seems less likely given their deteriorating relationship.
Cepeda faces his own challenges. Former president Álvaro Uribe has leveled serious accusations against him, claiming without evidence that Cepeda orchestrated the assassination of former senator Miguel Uribe Turbay and has plotted against Uribe himself. Cepeda has responded by demanding that Uribe present his evidence to the courts rather than making accusations in the press. The dispute centers on Cepeda's role as a mediator in peace negotiations with the FARC, and Uribe's assertion that dissidents from those talks—specifically Jesús Santrich and Iván Márquez, who founded the Second Marquetalia armed group—are responsible for the murder. Uribe also dredged up an old controversy about Cepeda's name appearing in captured FARC computers, a matter that courts have previously dismissed. Cepeda has characterized the attacks as political persecution and misinformation.
The campaign has also been roiled by international scrutiny. The New York Times reported that two U.S. federal prosecutors are investigating President Gustavo Petro for possible links to drug traffickers. Petro categorically denied the allegations, stating he has never spoken with a narcotrafficker and pointing out that no Colombian investigation supports such claims. He counterattacked by noting his decades-long record of exposing connections between traffickers and politicians. Valencia has called for a thorough investigation by American authorities, while Cepeda's campaign manager María José Pizarro questioned whether the probe represents foreign interference in Colombian affairs.
Beyond the scandals and accusations, the race is being shaped by endorsements and coalition-building. Juan Fernando Cristo, a former interior minister and liberal politician who had been running his own campaign, formally backed Cepeda this week, framing it as an alliance for life and social reform. Cristo emphasized the need to deepen social reforms while correcting course on policies like the government's "total peace" strategy, which attempted to negotiate simultaneously with all armed groups. Former vice president Óscar Naranjo endorsed Sergio Fajardo, the centrist candidate, calling him a leader capable of reconciling the country. Meanwhile, four former defense ministers and thirty-two retired generals signed a letter supporting Valencia, citing concerns about security and territorial control by illegal armed groups. These endorsements reflect the broader struggle for legitimacy across the political spectrum, with each camp seeking to claim the mantle of competence and patriotism.
Citas Notables
The responsibility to the country demands that we turn to institutions and allow justice to clarify the facts based on verifiable evidence.— Iván Cepeda, responding to Álvaro Uribe's assassination accusations
I have not committed a single ministry, a single position, and people know me for my transparency and clean hands.— Paloma Valencia, defending herself against charges of trading positions for endorsements
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why has Paloma Valencia's support jumped so dramatically in just a few weeks?
The legislative elections in early March seem to have been a turning point for her. She won the right-wing primary, which gave her campaign momentum and visibility. That victory signaled to traditional conservative politicians and military figures that she was a viable alternative to De la Espriella, and endorsements followed. The surge suggests she's consolidating the right-wing vote in a way De la Espriella couldn't.
But Cepeda still leads by a significant margin. Is he vulnerable?
In a first-round vote, no—he's commanding. But the runoff scenarios are what worry his team. Against Valencia specifically, the numbers are uncomfortably close. If De la Espriella's voters migrate to Valencia in a second round, the dynamics shift entirely. That's why both sides are fighting so hard right now.
The sexual harassment allegation against the government official—does that hurt Cepeda or help Valencia?
It helps Valencia because she's the one who exposed it. It shows her as willing to challenge the government, even though her party is traditionally aligned with the right. It's a way for her to claim independence and moral authority. For Cepeda, it's a liability because it reflects poorly on the administration he's closely associated with.
What about Uribe's accusations that Cepeda was involved in a senator's assassination?
They're serious charges, but they lack evidence. Uribe is making them in the court of public opinion rather than actual courts, which suggests he knows they won't survive judicial scrutiny. Cepeda's response—demanding proof and insisting on legal proceedings—is the stronger position. But the accusations themselves create noise and doubt, which can affect voters even if they're baseless.
Is the international investigation into Petro's alleged drug ties a real threat to Cepeda's campaign?
It's a distraction more than a direct threat to Cepeda personally. But it undermines the government he's running to succeed. It gives the right ammunition to argue that the left is corrupt or compromised. Cepeda has to distance himself from Petro's vulnerabilities while still claiming credit for the administration's achievements—a difficult balance.
What does the endorsement from Juan Fernando Cristo actually mean for Cepeda's chances?
It signals that the center-left is consolidating behind him. Cristo represents a different tradition—liberal, reformist, pragmatic—than the Pacto Histórico's more radical wing. His backing suggests Cepeda can appeal beyond his base. But it also means Cepeda is moving toward the center, which might alienate some of his more ideological supporters.