Colombia's 2026 presidential race intensifies as Petro claims CIA warns of threat to Cepeda

Colombia's presidential race is tightening in ways that scramble the conventional wisdom. Iván Cepeda, the left-wing candidate backed by President Gustavo Petro, has held the polling lead for months—but the latest numbers suggest that lead may be more fragile than it appears. In a runoff scenario, both of his main rivals, the right-wing uribista Paloma Valencia and the ultra-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella, would beat him, according to Atlas Intel polling released this week. In the first round, Cepeda still leads with 38.7 percent, but De la Espriella has 27.9 percent and Valencia 23.5 percent. Head-to-head against either opponent in a second round, however, Cepeda loses: De la Espriella would take 48.8 percent to his 39.8 percent, and Valencia would win 47.1 percent to his 39.6 percent.

The campaign has become a theater of competing allegations and strategic positioning. Cepeda himself has demanded that no government officials campaign on his behalf, after learning that a vice minister in the Technology Ministry had been promoting his candidacy in a WhatsApp group. Yet President Petro has been accused by electoral observers of constant interference in the race, making decisions about party strategy and attacking right-wing candidates. This week, Petro claimed on social media that the CIA possesses concrete intelligence about a potential assassination attempt against Cepeda. He offered no evidence, and he did not mention the death threats that Valencia and De la Espriella actually received over the weekend through their social media accounts. The Interior Ministry condemned those threats and announced security measures, but Petro's focus remained on Cepeda, whom he said was targeted by the "extreme right"—the same faction he blamed, without proof, for the killing of influencer Charlie Kirk and the 2024 attack on Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, the traditional right is consolidating behind Valencia with unusual speed and unity. The Conservative Party, one of Colombia's two historic parties, announced this week that it would officially back her, a decision made unanimously by its leadership. The Party of the U, which had been part of Petro's governing coalition, defected on Monday to support Valencia as well. Cambio Radical, a smaller conservative formation, chose a different path: it freed its members to support either Valencia or De la Espriella, but explicitly barred them from backing Cepeda. The center-left Alianza Verde, by contrast, fractured. A majority of its congressional members moved toward Cepeda, and the party's national leadership approved a commission to negotiate a programmatic agreement with his campaign. But prominent members like Katherine Miranda and Angélica Lozano objected, arguing that the party should support the centrist candidates Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López, both of whom emerged from the Green Party's own ranks. Lozano called the decision "antidemocratic" and "very much in tune with the temperament of President Gustavo Petro."

The border crisis with Ecuador has become a campaign flashpoint. Ecuador's president, Daniel Noboa, has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on Colombian goods starting May 1st, arguing that Petro has failed to combat narcotrafficking groups operating along their shared frontier. Valencia traveled to the international bridge at Rumichaga, which connects the two countries, and stood alongside her mentor, former president Álvaro Uribe. She promised that on her first day in office, she would militarize the highway from Cali to Pasto, call Noboa to say Colombia was ready to fight narcoterrorism, and ask him to lift the tariffs to restore border commerce. She criticized Petro for promoting trade with Venezuela and pledged to work with Nariño's governor, who is aligned with Petro's government. The tariffs, if imposed, would devastate legal commerce in a region that traditionally votes left but has become vulnerable to right-wing appeals because of the diplomatic breakdown.

Roy Barreras, the former senator and candidate of the La Fuerza party, announced this week that this would be his last electoral campaign. He said he would not run for office again, though he intends to stay in the race through the June 21st runoff. His motivation, he said, is to prevent the country's division and ensure the next government inspires confidence rather than fear. Vicky Dávila, a former presidential candidate and longtime editor of Semana magazine, has largely abandoned her own campaign to return to journalism. She lost a right-wing primary in March and agreed to support Valencia, as did other losing candidates like former minister Mauricio Cárdenas and ex-mayor Enrique Peñalosa. But Dávila reactivated her YouTube channel to conduct interviews rather than campaign. She sat down with Uribe, then—more surprisingly—with De la Espriella, whom she had publicly attacked during the primary for his ties to Alex Saab, a financier close to Nicolás Maduro. During that interview, she asked De la Espriella directly about the Saab connection. He denied it, saying he had not spoken to Saab in seven years.

Cepeda has faced criticism for his muted response to a scandal involving a party at the Itagüí prison in Antioquia, where criminal leaders who have been in dialogue with Petro's government were filmed celebrating. When asked about it, Cepeda said the prison authorities should handle the matter, but added: "Do not expect statements from me against the peace." Valencia and other candidates pounced. Sergio Fajardo, the centrist candidate, wrote that "Cepeda's silence is complicit and incoherent." Cepeda has also been reaching out to the center, calling on citizens who identify with the political middle to join his coalition—not as a "light center" of empty equilibrium, he said, but as a center with character and conviction. He has bolstered his campaign with international engagement, meeting twice with Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, and also with Spain's Pedro Sánchez and Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The runoff is set for June 21st, and the race remains volatile.