Everyone who has messed with me in a campaign ends up badly
Iván Cepeda maintains commanding lead (37-44%) across polls, but faces highest rejection rate (32.7%) among voters. Electoral authority investigates ultra-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella's candidacy over alleged fraudulent signatures; major pollster GAD3 suspends operations citing restrictive new regulations.
- Iván Cepeda leads all polls with 37-44% of intended votes; nearest rivals at ~20% and 15%
- 32.7% of voters say they would never vote for Cepeda, highest rejection rate in race
- Electoral authority investigating ultra-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella over alleged fraudulent signatures
- Spanish pollster GAD3 suspends all electoral polling, citing new regulations as operationally unviable
- Three televised debates required by law remain unscheduled; frontrunners avoiding participation
Colombia's 2026 presidential campaign heats up with left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda leading polls while facing pressure from armed groups, electoral irregularities, and heated exchanges with right-wing opponents.
Colombia's presidential campaign is entering its final stretch before the May 31 vote, and the race is defined by a paradox: one candidate dominates the polls while facing the deepest skepticism from voters, while his rivals trade accusations of fraud, paramilitarism, and electoral manipulation in a campaign notable for its absence of televised debate.
Iván Cepeda, the left-wing senator and official government candidate, holds a commanding lead across every major poll. The most recent surveys show him between 37 and 44 percent of intended votes, with his nearest competitors—ultra-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and conservative senator Paloma Valencia—trailing at roughly 20 and 15 percent respectively. In head-to-head matchups for a potential runoff, Cepeda beats every opponent except in one outlier poll where Valencia edges him narrowly. Yet this dominance masks a troubling reality: 32.7 percent of voters say they would never vote for him under any circumstance, the highest rejection rate of any candidate in the race.
The campaign has devolved into personal warfare. Cepeda and Tomás Uribe, son of former president Álvaro Uribe, traded insults on social media this week, with Cepeda calling Uribe a liar and reminding him that his uncle Santiago Uribe was convicted to 28 years in prison for organizing a paramilitary group called Los 12 Apóstoles and for the murder of a bus driver named Camilo Barrientos. Uribe had labeled Cepeda "the heir of the FARC," a slur the right routinely deploys. Meanwhile, Interior Minister Armando Benedetti—who oversees electoral security and is technically barred from campaign involvement—publicly attacked three social media influencers working for de la Espriella, calling them "small-time hustlers" and warning that "everyone who has messed with me in a campaign ends up badly." He later posted crude personal attacks on de la Espriella's appearance, prompting accusations from right-wing senators that the government is illegally interfering in the race.
Electoral authorities are investigating de la Espriella's candidacy itself. The National Electoral Council received a petition alleging that he registered with forged documents and fraudulent signatures of supporters. De la Espriella dismissed the claim as a "legal maneuver" by opponents trying to knock him out of the race, insisting that the National Registry had already verified and validated all his signatures when he registered. The controversy reflects broader tensions over electoral rules: the Spanish polling firm GAD3, which had been conducting surveys for a major broadcaster, announced this week that it is suspending all electoral polling in Colombia, citing new regulations imposed by the electoral authority that make rigorous polling "operationally unviable." Pollsters across the industry have called the new rules a "gag law."
The campaign's most glaring absence is televised debate. Colombian electoral law requires three televised forums of up to 60 minutes each. Seven minor candidates formally requested that the state broadcaster RTVC organize these debates, but the three frontrunners have avoided them. Cepeda says he distrusts traditional media and prefers to speak directly to crowds in public squares. De la Espriella and Valencia say they are willing to debate but won't participate without Cepeda. Valencia has proposed a debate limited to herself and de la Espriella, the two right-wing candidates, to clarify their differences. RTVC's director has invited all candidates to a meeting this week to work out debate logistics, but it remains unclear whether the leading candidates will show up.
The campaign is also shadowed by violence. One senator, Miguel Uribe Turbay, was assassinated last year, allegedly by a dissident FARC faction called the Second Marquetalia. This week, the Uribe political movement circulated an anonymous letter suggesting that the governor of Nariño province was behind the killing—an accusation the prosecutor's office has not made. Miguel Uribe Londoño, the slain senator's father, publicly criticized Álvaro Uribe and Paloma Valencia for what he called irresponsible and disrespectful use of his son's name in their campaign. He also criticized them for suggesting the governor was involved, calling the accusation baseless. Uribe Londoño is himself running for president as an independent after breaking with the Uribe party, which he says tried to push him toward supporting de la Espriella. He is polling below one percent.
With less than four weeks until the first round, the campaign reflects deep polarization and mutual distrust. Cepeda's lead appears solid, but the intensity of opposition to him suggests a runoff is likely. The absence of structured debate means voters are learning about candidates through social media attacks, anonymous letters, and public accusations rather than direct policy comparison. The electoral authority's investigation into de la Espriella, the government minister's public attacks on campaign workers, and the suspension of polling all point to a system under strain.
Notable Quotes
You are a liar, and you are the nephew of the chief of a paramilitary group— Iván Cepeda, responding to Tomás Uribe on social media
All the signatures were verified and validated by the National Registry, and my registration was accepted and backed by the Council of State— Abelardo de la Espriella, responding to candidacy investigation
It is an abuse of the Democratic Center, its leader, and its candidate to use my son Miguel's name in their campaign— Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of slain senator, criticizing Álvaro Uribe and Paloma Valencia
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Cepeda have such a commanding lead if nearly a third of voters say they'd never vote for him?
Because the opposition is split. De la Espriella and Valencia are both competing for the right-wing vote, so they cannibalize each other. Cepeda's 37 to 44 percent is enough to win a first round when the anti-Cepeda vote is divided three ways. But that high rejection rate is real—it means he's polarizing, and if the right consolidates behind one candidate in a runoff, he could lose.
The polls are disappearing. What does that tell you?
That the government is tightening control over information. The new electoral regulations are so restrictive that even professional firms say they can't do their job properly. When you can't measure public opinion reliably, you lose transparency. It benefits whoever is ahead, because nobody can challenge the narrative.
Why won't Cepeda debate?
He says he doesn't trust traditional media—that they're part of the establishment. But it also means he doesn't have to defend his record or his policies on camera. He can control his message through rallies and social media. His opponents are trapped: they look weak if they debate without him, but they also look weak if they refuse to show up.
The minister is attacking campaign workers. Isn't that illegal?
Technically, yes. Ministers aren't supposed to participate in campaigns. But Benedetti is framing it as election security—saying these influencers have ties to criminal groups. It's a thin line between legitimate security concerns and political intimidation. The right sees it as the government using its power to suppress opposition.
What about the investigation into de la Espriella's signatures?
It's murky. He says the registry already validated them. But if they were forged, he shouldn't be running. The problem is that it looks political—like the government is trying to eliminate a rival. Whether it's legitimate or not, it feeds the narrative that the system is rigged.
Is there any chance Cepeda loses?
In a runoff, yes. The Guarumo poll shows Valencia beating him in a second round. But he'd have to finish first on May 31, and right now that looks very likely. The real question is whether the opposition can unite behind one candidate before a runoff, and whether the violence and electoral irregularities undermine confidence in the result.