Don't expect statements from me against peace
In the weeks before Colombia's May 31 presidential election, frontrunner Iván Cepeda finds himself navigating a tension as old as politics itself: the distance between principle and power. His refusal to criticize a prison celebration hosted by criminal negotiators — framed as loyalty to peace — has opened a wound his rivals are pressing hard. The polls still favor him in the first round, but the runoff numbers tell a more cautionary tale, reminding us that leading a race and winning it are two very different things.
- Cepeda's deflection on the Itagüí prison party — 'don't expect statements from me against peace' — handed his opponents a weapon they have not put down, with rivals calling his silence complicit and incoherent.
- First-round polling gives Cepeda a commanding 35–38%, but both far-right De la Espriella and uribista Valencia now beat him in hypothetical runoffs, marking the first time either rival has led him head-to-head.
- Valencia's support exploded from 4% to 22% in three weeks following her primary win and a wave of establishment endorsements, while De la Espriella attacked her for accepting that very support, fracturing the conservative bloc weeks before voting.
- Cepeda formalized an alliance with liberal reformist Juan Fernando Cristo, reaching toward the political center under the banner Alianza por la Vida, even as Cristo openly criticized the government's 'total peace' strategy.
- The campaign's atmosphere darkened further as former president Uribe accused Cepeda of plotting his assassination without evidence, and U.S. federal prosecutors were reported to be investigating sitting president Petro for alleged drug trafficking links — allegations Petro denied.
Iván Cepeda, the leftist senator leading Colombia's presidential race, broke his silence this week on the prison party thrown by criminal gang leaders in Itagüí, Antioquia — men who have been negotiating with the government for three years. His answer was brief and costly. He said prison authorities should handle it, then added: 'Don't expect statements from me against peace.' The deflection ignited immediate backlash. Right-wing candidate Paloma Valencia accused him of complicity on social media, asking what peace he meant while violence remained high. Sergio Fajardo called the silence 'accomplice and incoherent,' noting that four years ago, Cepeda himself demanded public debate.
The controversy arrives as Cepeda's polling advantage begins to show cracks. He still leads the first round at 35–38%, but new Atlas Intel data shows both De la Espriella and Valencia defeating him in runoff scenarios — the first time either rival has polled ahead of him head-to-head. Valencia's rise has been especially sharp, jumping from 4.1% to 22.2% in three weeks after winning her party primary and attracting endorsements from former government heavyweights. De la Espriella, positioning himself as a true outsider, attacked her for accepting that establishment support, saying he had turned away the same figures at his door. The civility between the two right-wing candidates has collapsed with less than two months to go.
Cepeda has responded by broadening his coalition. He formalized an alliance with Juan Fernando Cristo, a former interior minister who had been running his own campaign before withdrawing last week. Cristo endorsed Cepeda's reform agenda while openly criticizing the government's simultaneous negotiations with all armed groups, calling the results disappointing, and warning against a proposed constitutional assembly. The partnership, named Alianza por la Vida, marks Cepeda's first formal reach toward the political center.
The campaign has also been darkened by graver accusations. Former president Uribe, without evidence, accused Cepeda of orchestrating the assassination of a senator through his role in the FARC peace process. Cepeda demanded the claims be taken to court. Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that two U.S. federal prosecutors are investigating President Petro for possible links to drug traffickers — allegations Petro denied flatly, calling them an attack on Colombia's sovereignty. With the ballot order now set and voting on May 31, the race remains genuinely open: Cepeda holds the lead, but the questions accumulating around his silence and his government's credibility may yet determine whether that lead holds when it matters most.
Iván Cepeda, the leftist senator leading Colombia's presidential race, broke his silence this week on a subject that has shadowed his campaign: a party thrown by criminal gang leaders inside Itagüí prison in Antioquia. The gathering involved heads of high-impact criminal structures who have been negotiating with the government for the past three years. When pressed by reporters, Cepeda offered a deflection that would haunt him. "I believe the prison authorities should handle that," he said. "But don't expect statements from me against peace."
The videos of the prison celebration had surfaced just days after the government announced it was canceling arrest warrants for spokespeople of these same criminal organizations. The revelation sparked outrage, and the dialogue table with the gang leaders was temporarily suspended. Cepeda's terse response—framing any criticism as an attack on peace itself—ignited a firestorm from his rivals. Paloma Valencia, the right-wing uribista candidate, posted on X that Cepeda's silence was complicit. "What peace is he talking about?" she wrote. "The same one that has benefited criminals while the country faces high levels of violence." Sergio Fajardo, another presidential contender, piled on, calling Cepeda's silence "accomplice and incoherent," and noting the irony that four years ago, when Fajardo and Cepeda campaigned together for Petro, they demanded public debate. Now, with power in hand, "silence is total."
The criticism arrives at a precarious moment for Cepeda's candidacy. While he still leads in first-round polling—ranging from 35 to 38 percent across recent surveys—the numbers in potential runoff scenarios tell a different story. According to Atlas Intel, both De la Espriella, the far-right populist, and Valencia would defeat Cepeda in a second round. De la Espriella would win 48.8 percent to Cepeda's 39.8 percent. Valencia would take 47.1 percent against Cepeda's 39.6 percent. It marks the first time either rival has polled ahead of the frontrunner in a runoff matchup, signaling a fundamental shift in the race's dynamics as May 31 approaches.
The electoral landscape itself has been reshuffled by recent developments. The ballot order was determined by lottery this week, with Cepeda drawing the top spot—a small advantage that may matter little if runoff scenarios continue to deteriorate. De la Espriella landed in position five, Valencia in position twelve. The ballot will feature fifteen slots, with the final one reserved for blank votes. Meanwhile, Valencia's campaign has surged dramatically. The Centro Nacional de Consultoría found her support jumping from 4.1 percent just three weeks earlier to 22.2 percent, a gain that reflects both her victory in the March 8 internal party primary and the arrival of heavyweight endorsers from previous administrations.
Tensions are now fracturing the right itself. De la Espriella, who has positioned himself as a true outsider rejecting traditional party machinery, has attacked Valencia for accepting support from establishment figures and former government officials. "All those people came knocking on my door, and I didn't let them in, because this is extreme coherence," he said. "You can't be independent when you're taking money from everyone." Valencia shot back that she welcomes all supporters but has made no ministerial promises in exchange for backing. The two had previously maintained civility, with De la Espriella even offering to campaign for Valencia in a runoff against a leftist opponent. Now, less than two months from voting, the conservative bloc is splintering.
Cepeda, meanwhile, has moved to shore up his coalition beyond the ruling Pacto Histórico. This week, he formalized an alliance with Juan Fernando Cristo, a former interior minister and liberal reformist who had been running his own campaign. Cristo, who declined his presidential bid last week, endorsed Cepeda's push for deeper social reforms while cautioning against some of the government's recent moves. He criticized the "peace total" strategy of negotiating simultaneously with all armed groups, saying it had not produced expected results. He also warned against a proposed constitutional assembly, calling it "inconvenient and inopportune." The alliance, branded as the Alianza por la Vida, represents Cepeda's first formal partnership with forces outside the ruling coalition—a signal that he is reaching toward the political center even as his left flank remains secure.
The campaign has also been roiled by accusations and counteraccusations involving the sitting president. Former president Álvaro Uribe, without presenting evidence, accused Cepeda of plotting to have him killed, claiming Cepeda had orchestrated the assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay, a senator and presidential candidate, through his role as a mediator in the FARC peace accord. Cepeda demanded that Uribe present his evidence to the courts rather than make accusations in public. The government, for its part, faces its own credibility test: two U.S. federal prosecutors are investigating President Gustavo Petro for possible links to drug traffickers, according to reporting by The New York Times. Petro denied the allegations flatly, writing on X that he has never spoken to a drug trafficker and that he spent a decade of his life exposing the ties between narcos and politicians. His allies, including senator María José Pizarro, questioned whether the investigation represented foreign interference in Colombia's sovereignty.
With the first round just weeks away, the race remains fluid. Cepeda holds the lead, but his vulnerability in runoff scenarios, combined with the fracturing of the right and the ongoing questions about the government's peace negotiations, suggests that the final outcome remains genuinely uncertain. The ballot is set. The candidates are locked in. Now comes the test of whether Cepeda's first-round advantage can survive a potential second round, or whether the doubts about his silence on the prison party and other governance questions will prove decisive.
Notable Quotes
The silence of Cepeda is complicit and incoherent— Sergio Fajardo, rival presidential candidate
Colombia must deepen and accelerate social reforms, but must also correct course on policies that failed, like peace total— Juan Fernando Cristo, former interior minister, upon endorsing Cepeda
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Cepeda refuse to criticize the prison party? It seems like a straightforward governance failure.
Because he's trapped between two audiences. Criticizing the party means criticizing the government's peace negotiations—and he's the government's chosen successor. But silence reads as complicity to voters who are already skeptical of those negotiations.
So the silence is strategic, not principled?
It's both. He genuinely believes the peace process, however messy, is worth protecting. But strategy and principle have become indistinguishable for him. That's the problem.
The polls show him winning the first round but losing runoffs. How does that happen?
First-round voters are fragmented across many candidates. In a runoff, they consolidate. Right now, the right is split between De la Espriella and Valencia. If either makes it to round two, the anti-left vote unites behind them.
Is Cepeda's alliance with Cristo a sign of weakness?
It's a sign he's reading the room. He's reaching for the center because his left-flank support is solid but not enough. Cristo brings credibility on reform and governance—things Cepeda needs after weeks of being silent on hard questions.
What happens if the U.S. investigation into Petro gains traction before May 31?
It becomes the story. Not because the allegations are proven, but because it feeds the narrative that the government is chaotic and untrustworthy. Cepeda can't escape that gravity.