The responsibility to the country demands we turn to institutions
As Colombia's May 31 presidential election approaches, a contest once seemingly settled is revealing itself as something far more uncertain — a mirror of the country's unresolved tensions between left and right, institution and accusation, peace and its discontents. Iván Cepeda leads from the left with a commanding but softening grip, while Paloma Valencia has emerged from the right with a velocity that transforms a foregone conclusion into a genuine reckoning. In the space between them, old wounds — guerrilla negotiations, unsolved murders, narco allegations — are being reopened not to seek truth, but to shape power.
- Valencia quadrupled her polling support in a single month, collapsing what had been Cepeda's comfortable lead into a statistical tie in any hypothetical runoff.
- Former president Uribe leveled a murder accusation against Cepeda without evidence, forcing the frontrunner to publicly demand that politics yield to judicial process rather than press spectacle.
- The right-wing coalition is fracturing from within, as ultra-conservative De la Espriella and Valencia trade accusations over endorsements and ideological purity, risking a split that could hand Cepeda the presidency.
- A U.S. federal investigation into President Petro's alleged narco ties has been weaponized domestically, with Valencia calling for full prosecution while Cepeda's camp warns of foreign interference in Colombian democracy.
- Cepeda is broadening his coalition toward the center, absorbing liberal reformist Juan Fernando Cristo and his party in an alliance framed around social progress and institutional correction.
Colombia's presidential race is tightening with uncomfortable speed. Iván Cepeda, the left-wing frontrunner, holds 34.5 percent in the latest polling — a slight decline — while Paloma Valencia, the uribista senator, has surged from 4.1 percent in February to 22.2 percent in March following her party primary victory. In a hypothetical runoff, the two are separated by less than half a point, well within the margin of error.
The campaign has grown ugly. Former president Álvaro Uribe accused Cepeda of bearing responsibility for the assassination of senator and presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, linking him to the Second Marquetalia dissident faction through two peace negotiators who later defected. Uribe offered no evidence. Cepeda responded by demanding that any accusations be brought before the courts rather than aired in the press — a deliberate posture of institutional restraint that cast Uribe as a man weaponizing an unsolved murder. Uribe also revived old claims about Cepeda's name appearing in the seized files of a deceased FARC commander, allegations that Colombia's Supreme Court had already dismissed as unreliable.
On the right, the coalition is showing cracks. De la Espriella, the ultra-conservative outsider who had been the strongest challenger before Valencia's surge, is now publicly attacking her for accepting establishment endorsements. Valencia defended herself by insisting she has traded no ministerial posts for support. The friction reflects a deeper anxiety: with Valencia now viable in a runoff, De la Espriella risks being squeezed out entirely.
Cepeda, meanwhile, absorbed liberal reformist Juan Fernando Cristo into his camp this week under the banner of an 'Alliance for Life,' a gesture toward the center designed to broaden his coalition beyond the left. The international dimension has also sharpened: U.S. federal prosecutors are reportedly investigating President Petro for alleged narco ties, which Petro denied flatly. Valencia called for the investigation to proceed; Cepeda's debate chief warned it amounted to foreign interference. The accusation, unproven, has become a domestic weapon.
Both leading candidates have refused to resign their Senate seats, turning the legislature into a secondary campaign arena. The race remains Cepeda's to lose — but Valencia's momentum has made the outcome genuinely uncertain for the first time.
Colombia's presidential race is tightening as the May 31 election draws closer, with the left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda holding a commanding but vulnerable lead while his right-wing rivals scramble to consolidate their fractured base. Cepeda sits atop the latest polling at 34.5 percent, a slight dip from his previous 35.4 percent, according to the Centro Nacional de Consultoría survey released this past weekend. But the real story is the surge of Paloma Valencia, the uribista senator who quadrupled her support in a single month—from 4.1 percent in February to 22.2 percent in March—after winning her party's internal primary on March 8. In a hypothetical runoff between the two, the margin collapses to near-statistical irrelevance: Cepeda at 43.3 percent, Valencia at 42.9 percent, with a margin of error of 3 percent.
The campaign has turned vicious. Former president Álvaro Uribe, who remains the ideological godfather of the right-wing Centro Democrático party, has accused Cepeda of orchestrating the assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay, a senator and presidential candidate murdered in what authorities suspect was a hit by the Second Marquetalia, a dissident faction that broke from the FARC peace accord. Uribe offered no evidence. He claimed Cepeda, who served as a mediator in the original peace negotiations, bore responsibility because two negotiators—Jesús Santrich and Iván Márquez—later defected and founded the Second Marquetalia. On Saturday, Cepeda responded with a terse public statement demanding that Uribe present his accusations and evidence to the courts, not the press. "The responsibility to the country demands that we turn to institutions and allow justice to clarify the facts based on verifiable evidence," Cepeda wrote on X. It was a calculated move: by insisting on judicial process rather than engaging in the mud, Cepeda positioned himself as the institutionalist while Uribe appeared to be weaponizing an unsolved murder for political gain.
Uribe's attack also resurfaced an old grievance. He questioned why Cepeda's name appeared in the seized computers of deceased FARC commander Raúl Reyes, suggesting Cepeda had organized mobilizations for the guerrillas. Cepeda's campaign clarified that the march in question, on March 6, 2008, was organized to honor victims of state crimes—not to support the FARC. The Interpol certified the email mention; Colombia's Supreme Court later dismissed the files as unreliable. The accusation, recycled now in the heat of the campaign, carried the stale odor of a conspiracy theory that had already been litigated and discarded.
Meanwhile, the right-wing coalition is fracturing. Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultra-conservative lawyer who had been the strongest challenger to Cepeda before Valencia's surge, is now clashing publicly with Valencia over endorsements. De la Espriella, who has positioned himself as an outsider independent of traditional politics, criticized Valencia for accepting support from former ministers and establishment figures. "All those people came knocking on my door and I didn't let them in, because this is extreme coherence," he said, adding that one cannot claim independence while accepting money from everyone. Valencia shot back that her campaign welcomes all comers but has not traded ministerial posts for endorsements. "I have not compromised a single ministry, a single position, and people know me for my transparency and clean hands." The tension reflects a deeper anxiety on the right: with Valencia now viable in a runoff, De la Espriella risks being squeezed out of the second round entirely.
Cepeda, meanwhile, is consolidating his own coalition. Juan Fernando Cristo, a former interior minister and liberal reformist who had been running his own campaign, formally endorsed Cepeda this week and declined his own presidential bid. Cristo, who leads the small En Marcha party, framed the alliance as the "Alliance for Life" and called for Colombia to deepen social reforms while correcting course on failed policies like the government's "total peace" strategy, which attempted to negotiate simultaneously with all armed groups. Cepeda, in turn, praised the liberal tradition as compatible with progressivism, a rhetorical gesture toward the center that signals his campaign's ambition to build a broad coalition.
The international dimension of the race has also intensified. The New York Times reported that two U.S. federal prosecutors are investigating President Gustavo Petro for alleged ties to drug traffickers. Petro denied the allegations flatly on X: "Never in my life have I spoken with a drug trafficker." He pivoted to attack, claiming that the far right—not the left—maintains ties to narcotraffickers. Valencia, the uribista candidate, called for U.S. authorities to pursue the investigation fully, a move that drew sharp criticism from María José Pizarro, Cepeda's debate chief, who questioned whether this represented foreign interference in Colombian affairs. The accusation, unproven and originating from U.S. sources, has become a weapon in the domestic campaign, with the right using it to undermine the incumbent government that Cepeda represents.
With less than three months until the first round, both Cepeda and Valencia have refused to resign their Senate seats, insisting they will continue legislative work while campaigning. The Congreso has become a secondary battleground: Valencia used a recent session to attack the government's handling of health and security, citing 40,000 homicides under Petro's watch. Cepeda accused her of using the chamber for campaign purposes rather than governance. Both accusations carried weight. The electoral commission has begun declaring results in 19 departments and eight special peace constituencies, with officials reporting a 99.8 percent correspondence between preliminary counts and official tallies—a sign of technical competence, though the government's repeated demands to audit the electoral software have sown lingering doubts about the integrity of the process. The race remains Cepeda's to lose, but Valencia's momentum and the right's consolidation mean the outcome is no longer predetermined.
Citações Notáveis
The responsibility to the country demands that we turn to institutions and allow justice to clarify the facts based on verifiable evidence.— Iván Cepeda, in response to Uribe's accusations
I have not compromised a single ministry, a single position, and people know me for my transparency and clean hands.— Paloma Valencia, defending her campaign against De la Espriella's criticism
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Cepeda's response to Uribe's murder accusation matter so much? It's a serious charge either way.
Because he chose the courts over the microphone. In a polarized moment, that choice signals something about how he'd govern—whether he trusts institutions or just uses them as props.
But doesn't that also look weak? Like he's avoiding a fight?
In Colombia right now, it might look like strength. The country has seen enough strongmen who settle scores in public. Cepeda's saying: this is too serious for Twitter.
Valencia's numbers jumped from 4 percent to 22 percent in one month. How does that happen?
She won the internal primary on March 8. That gave her legitimacy within the right-wing base, media coverage, and momentum. But also—Cepeda's still at 34 percent. She's catching up, not overtaking.
In a runoff, they're basically tied.
Within the margin of error, yes. Which means the first round matters enormously. If Cepeda doesn't win outright, anything can happen in round two.
What about the U.S. investigation into Petro?
It's a gift to the right, whether it's real or not. It lets them say the government is corrupt without having to prove anything. Petro denies it, but the accusation sticks.
So the race is really about whether voters trust institutions or want to punish the left?
Exactly. Cepeda represents continuity with Petro. Valencia represents a return to the old right. De la Espriella represents something angrier. The outcome depends on which of those three stories voters believe.