102 municipalities already facing water shortage before the dry season begins
Each year, as the Caribbean sky begins its seasonal negotiation between drought and storm, Cuba pauses to rehearse its relationship with catastrophe. This May, the island launched Meteoro 2026—its 40th such exercise—under the guidance of President Díaz-Canel, gathering civil defense officials, meteorologists, and health authorities to measure the nation's readiness against a horizon of converging pressures: a severe drought gripping 102 municipalities, a hurricane season carrying a 40 percent probability of direct cyclone impact, and an economy strained by decades of sanctions. The exercise is less a simulation than a mirror, asking a society to look honestly at its vulnerabilities before nature forces the question.
- Cuba enters hurricane season already weakened—102 municipalities are classified in hydrological drought, with storage reservoirs holding only 56 percent of national capacity after a rainfall year that fell well below historical norms.
- Meteorologists warn of a 40 percent probability of cyclone impact and a 75 percent chance of tropical storm contact, even as El Niño conditions may suppress the worst of the season's fury.
- Díaz-Canel framed the exercise against what he described as deliberate economic strangulation by the United States, including executive orders targeting Cuba's energy supply and penalizing foreign entities that engage with the island.
- Health officials flagged the need for local epidemiological vigilance, disinfectant availability, and tighter screening of international arrivals at ports and airports as part of the disaster response framework.
- New hydrological tools—automated monitoring stations, updated flood mapping, and a computer system for water runoff forecasting—are being deployed to sharpen the country's ability to manage water crises before and after storms.
- Officials called for creative, zone-by-zone implementation of civil defense plans, acknowledging that Cuba's constraints demand not just preparation, but improvisation with rigor.
Every Friday since the start of 2026, Cuba has observed a National Defense Day. This May, that ritual took on its largest form: the launch of Meteoro 2026, the 40th edition of the country's annual disaster preparedness exercise. Led by President Miguel Díaz-Canel and conducted under the auspices of the Ministry of Revolutionary Armed Forces, the drill engaged the full arc of Cuban governance—from senior defense officials to local emergency responders. Raúl Castro sent greetings to participants, urging rigor and care.
The exercise arrives at a moment of compounding environmental stress. Cuba's most recent hydrological year closed with rainfall at just 89 percent of the historical average, leaving 102 of the country's 168 municipalities in a state of hydrological drought. Reservoirs hold barely more than half their capacity. The western and central provinces have been hit hardest, with only the rains brought by Hurricane Melissa offering meaningful relief to the east. Against this backdrop, meteorologists project eleven tropical cyclones for the coming season, five of which may reach hurricane strength—and a 40 percent probability that one will make landfall on Cuban soil.
Responding to these realities, water resource officials announced a suite of new tools: a computer system for short-term runoff forecasting, updated flood-zone mapping, and expanded automated monitoring. Public health authorities emphasized local epidemiological readiness, disinfectant access, and screening of international travelers arriving by sea and air.
Díaz-Canel used the occasion to situate Cuba's preparedness within its broader political circumstances, describing recent U.S. executive orders—targeting Cuba's energy supply and penalizing foreign partners—as acts of economic coercion that complicate every aspect of the island's functioning. He called on officials not to be paralyzed by those constraints, but to use Meteoro 2026 to refresh their plans, specify every detail, and execute them zone by zone. In a country that has rehearsed disaster for four decades, the president suggested, the real measure is not the drill itself—but what happens when the storm is no longer hypothetical.
Every Friday since the start of the year, Cuba has held a National Defense Day. On this particular Friday in May, the country launched Meteoro 2026—the 40th iteration of a disaster preparedness exercise designed to test how well the government and its people can respond when nature strikes. The drill, which rippled out across the entire nation from the Ministry of Revolutionary Armed Forces, was led by Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, the president of Cuba's National Defense Council. Raúl Castro, the elder statesman of the revolution, sent his greetings to all participants and urged them to conduct the exercise with care and rigor.
The timing was not incidental. Cuba faces a convergence of environmental pressures that make such preparation urgent. Ramón Pardo Guerra, the head of the National Civil Defense General Staff, explained that Meteoro 2026 serves as a cornerstone for readying both the government apparatus and ordinary Cubans. The exercise offers a chance to identify weak points in the system, refine surveillance networks, and ensure that the population and emergency responders are equipped to handle disaster and recovery.
The meteorological picture is complicated. Celso Pazos Alberdi, director of Cuba's Institute of Meteorology, reported that conditions favor the rapid development of an El Niño-Southern Oscillation event, which would suppress rainfall during Cuba's wet season and dampen tropical cyclone activity. The forecast calls for eleven tropical cyclones to form this season, with five potentially reaching hurricane strength and two possibly intensifying into major hurricanes. The probability that a cyclone will strike Cuba stands at 40 percent—slightly above the historical average. For tropical storms, the risk climbs to 75 percent.
But the more immediate crisis is drought. The hydrological year that ended in April saw Cuba receive 1,184 millimeters of rain, just 89 percent of the historical norm—a figure officials characterized as very low. Of Cuba's 168 municipalities, 68 experienced dry conditions, 19 moderately dry, 15 severely dry, and 34 extremely dry. Only Hurricane Melissa's rains provided meaningful relief to the eastern provinces. As of the exercise date, the country had accumulated 409 million cubic meters of water in storage—56 percent of national capacity—but 102 municipalities were already classified as experiencing hydrological drought. The western provinces from Pinar del Río through Matanzas, and from Ciego de Ávila into Camagüey, faced the worst conditions. Argelio Fernández Richelme, director of hydrology and hydrogeology at the National Institute of Water Resources, outlined preparations for the cyclone season: a new computer system for short-term water runoff forecasting, updated observation points, better mapping of flood-prone areas, and more automated monitoring stations.
Public health officials also briefed the exercise. Carilda Peña García, the deputy minister of public health, stressed the importance of epidemiological analysis at the local level to make timely decisions, ensuring surveillance capacity, and making disinfectant available in pharmacies and accessible locations. She flagged the critical need to screen international travelers and vessels arriving at ports and airports, and to strengthen primary health care.
Díaz-Canel opened the exercise by addressing what he called Cuba's complex situation—a product, he said, of what he characterized as genocidal and criminal policy from the United States government. He referenced two recent executive orders: one imposing an energy blockade on Cuba, another extending sanctions and economic coercion to any entity willing to work with the island. Against this backdrop, he said, Meteoro 2026 continues a long tradition of civil defense preparation and vulnerability reduction. He called on officials to be creative given the constraints, to use the exercise to refresh plans, and to ensure that every detail was specified, implemented, and executed zone by zone. That, he suggested, was the real test.
Citações Notáveis
This exercise gives us the chance to keep evaluating our vulnerabilities, improve surveillance systems, and strengthen how the population and emergency forces prepare for disaster response and recovery.— Ramón Pardo Guerra, head of the National Civil Defense General Staff
Every detail must be specified, implemented, and executed zone by zone. That is the real test of this exercise.— Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, President of Cuba's National Defense Council
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Cuba run this drill every year? What's the actual risk?
The island sits in the hurricane belt and faces water scarcity. Meteoro tests whether the government can coordinate across all levels—from the capital down to individual neighborhoods—when disaster hits. It's not theoretical.
The drought sounds serious. 102 municipalities without enough water—what does that mean for ordinary people?
It means rationing, failed crops, stress on hospitals and schools. The meteorologists are saying this year might be drier still because of El Niño. The exercise is partly about making sure people know where to get water and what to do if supplies run out.
I noticed the president mentioned the U.S. blockade during the drill. Why bring that up?
Because it shapes everything. Cuba can't easily import fuel, spare parts, or technology. When a hurricane hits or drought deepens, the country has fewer resources to respond. The exercise has to account for that scarcity.
So this isn't just about hurricanes?
No. It's about hurricanes, drought, disease outbreaks, and doing all of it with limited money and imports. The drill is a way to say: here's what we can actually do with what we have.
What happens if the exercise reveals major gaps?
The officials go back and rewrite the plans. They update which areas flood, where people should evacuate, how to distribute water. It's meant to be honest about vulnerabilities, not a show.