The ceasefire itself remains precarious if tanker operators attempt unauthorized passages
Amid a ceasefire that neither side fully trusts, Donald Trump has begun sharing a draft peace framework with allies — including Israel — in an effort to prevent a fragile arrangement with Iran from collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions. The proposal touches on the oldest levers of geopolitical pressure: frozen wealth, open waterways, and the specter of nuclear capability. What hangs in the balance is not merely a diplomatic document but the question of whether two adversaries, each convinced the other seeks their ruin, can find language precise enough to hold.
- A ceasefire agreed in April is fraying at the edges — Iranian strikes on a US base in Kuwait and American operations near the Strait of Hormuz signal how quickly the situation can escalate into open conflict.
- The draft deal offers Iran $12 billion in unfrozen assets and relief from port blockades, but Israel rejects it outright for deferring hard nuclear commitments, and Iran is pushing for toll rights over the strait that Washington calls a red line.
- Trump threatened to 'blow up' Oman if it facilitates Iran's proposed navigational fee arrangement, leaving a key regional mediator furious and the strait's future status unresolved.
- Pakistan's foreign minister is flying to Washington to help break the deadlock, while Iran's deputy foreign minister in Moscow insists frozen assets must be released unconditionally — the two sides are not yet speaking the same language.
- Inside Iran, over 6,000 people have been arrested since February, and Supreme Leader Khamenei is warning officials not to let deal disagreements fracture the country — a sign of how much internal pressure the negotiations are generating.
- Oil markets rose modestly but have not yet priced in a full breakdown, suggesting the world is watching a negotiation that could still succeed — or unravel entirely if a single tanker attempts an unauthorized passage through the strait.
Donald Trump has begun circulating a draft peace agreement with Iran among close allies, including Israel, in a bid to stabilize a ceasefire that has already shown dangerous cracks. On the same day the draft was being shared, Tehran struck a US airbase in Kuwait in retaliation for American operations near the Strait of Hormuz — a stark illustration of how little margin for error remains.
The agreement's core terms are relatively clear: the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports, release roughly $12 billion in frozen assets, and restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. A broader 60-day window would follow for nuclear negotiations, including IAEA oversight, a pause on enrichment, and Iran's formal renunciation of nuclear weapons development. But Vice President JD Vance acknowledged the talks remain stuck on 'a couple of language points' — chiefly Iran's uranium stockpile and enrichment capacity. Israel has rejected the draft entirely, viewing its deferral of nuclear commitments as a fundamental flaw.
The sharpest flashpoint is the Strait of Hormuz itself. Iran is seeking to charge fees for what it calls navigational services, negotiating a side arrangement with Oman to formalize this. Trump responded by threatening to 'blow up' Oman if it cooperated — a remark that left Omani diplomats furious, even as their newspapers stayed silent. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has meanwhile reasserted control of the waterway, stopping or turning back vessels attempting to pass without permission. Washington has responded by sanctioning Iran's newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority and warning any country that participates in the toll system.
The human dimension of the conflict is severe. Amnesty International has documented more than 6,000 arrests inside Iran since the US-Israeli offensive began in February, sweeping up protesters, journalists, lawyers, and members of minority communities. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with parliament closed, has urged officials to hold together and frame the negotiations as resistance to foreign pressure — even as economic grievances mount at home.
Pakistan and Qatar are working as indirect mediators, and Pakistan's foreign minister is traveling to Washington to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio. China is pushing for UN Security Council ratification of any final deal. Trump told his cabinet he needed a few more days to decide whether to sign a memorandum of understanding. Whether those days will be enough — before a tanker tests the strait, or a strike tips the balance — remains the central, unresolved question.
Donald Trump has begun circulating a draft peace agreement with Iran among his closest allies, including Israel, as both sides scramble to keep a fragile ceasefire from unraveling entirely. The move signals an attempt to accelerate negotiations that have stalled on several critical points, even as fresh military incidents threaten to derail the entire process. On Thursday alone, Tehran launched strikes against a US airbase in Kuwait in response to American strikes on what Washington described as an Iranian drone operation near the Strait of Hormuz—a reminder of how quickly the situation can spiral.
The draft agreement itself is not dramatically different from versions already circulating through Middle Eastern capitals. Its core elements are straightforward: the United States would lift its blockade on Iranian ports, release approximately $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and open the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping. The timeline is ambitious—officials envision commercial traffic returning to pre-war levels within 30 days, with broader nuclear negotiations to begin and potentially stretch across 60 days. Those nuclear talks would address Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, impose a time-limited pause on further enrichment, and establish International Atomic Energy Agency oversight. Iran would formally renounce nuclear weapons development.
Yet the agreement remains deeply contentious. Vice President JD Vance acknowledged on Thursday that negotiators were close to a deal but remained stuck on "a couple of language points"—specifically the question of Iran's uranium enrichment and the size of its existing stockpile. For Israel, the draft is fundamentally unacceptable because it defers any firm Iranian nuclear commitments and requires a permanent ceasefire that would include Lebanon. The agreement also sidesteps the thorniest issue of all: how much Iran can charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
This last point has become a flashpoint. Iran is attempting to negotiate a separate arrangement with Oman that would impose fees for what it calls "navigational services." Trump responded with a threat on Wednesday, saying he would "blow up" Oman if it struck such a deal with Tehran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' navy, meanwhile, has reasserted its control of the waterway, requiring ships to seek permission before passage and intercepting vessels attempting to transit with their transponders disabled. Two ships were stopped in place this week; two others were forced to turn back. Pakistan's foreign minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, is scheduled to fly to Washington on Friday to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio in an effort to break the deadlock.
The ceasefire itself, agreed on April 8, remains precarious. If oil tanker operators begin attempting unauthorized passages through the strait, the entire agreement could collapse. Oil prices rose 2 percent on Thursday morning but remained below $100 a barrel, suggesting markets are not yet pricing in a full breakdown. In Moscow, Iran's deputy foreign minister, Ali Bagheri, reiterated demands that frozen assets be released unconditionally into Iranian bank accounts. Washington has countered by imposing sanctions on Iran's newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority and threatening to sanction any country—including Oman—that cooperates with Tehran's toll system.
Inside Iran, the political ground is shifting. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has warned officials not to allow disagreements over the deal to fracture the country, telling them to focus on addressing public economic concerns while parliament remains closed. He framed the negotiations as part of a broader American and Israeli strategy to "bring the country to its knees." The human cost of the conflict has been severe: Amnesty International reports that Iranian authorities have arrested more than 6,000 people since the US and Israeli offensive began on February 28, including protesters, journalists, lawyers, human rights defenders, and members of ethnic and religious minorities.
Oman, traditionally viewed as a Western-aligned mediator in Middle Eastern disputes, has found itself caught between the two sides. Senior diplomats there were reportedly shocked and furious at Trump's threat, though Omani newspapers have not reported the incident. The country does not favor an arrangement that would give Iran heavy-handed control over strait navigation, yet it has been in talks with Tehran about the waterway's future. Pakistan and Qatar continue to serve as indirect mediators between Washington and Tehran, but the window for agreement is narrowing. Trump told his cabinet on Wednesday that he needed a few more days to consider the draft before deciding whether to sign a memorandum of understanding. China is pressing for UN Security Council ratification of any final agreement. The question now is whether those few days will be enough to bridge gaps that have proven remarkably resistant to compromise.
Citas Notables
It's hard to say exactly when or if the president is going to sign the memorandum of understanding. We're going back and forth on a couple of language points.— Vice President JD Vance
The US and Israel are seeking to bring the country to its knees. The enemy's blind plan is to create division and destruction in order to compensate for its military defeats.— Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much that it could sink an entire peace deal?
Because roughly a third of the world's seaborne oil passes through it. If Iran can charge tolls or deny passage, it controls global energy prices. If the US insists on free navigation, Iran feels stripped of leverage. It's the physical manifestation of the whole conflict—who gets to decide what happens in that waterway.
Trump threatened to "blow up" Oman. Is that a real threat or theater?
It's hard to know. But Oman is a small country that has spent decades building a reputation as a neutral mediator. The threat itself—whether serious or not—damages that role. Diplomats there are furious. You don't recover from that kind of language easily.
The draft agreement defers Iran's nuclear commitments. Why would Trump accept that?
Because getting a ceasefire in place is the immediate goal. The nuclear question gets punted to a 60-day negotiation window. It's a way to claim victory now and deal with the harder problem later. But Israel sees it as capitulation—Iran gets sanctions relief and asset releases before making any real nuclear concessions.
What happens if a tanker captain decides to run the strait without asking Iran's permission?
That's the real danger. One unauthorized passage could trigger an Iranian response, which triggers a US response, and the ceasefire collapses. The whole agreement is built on restraint that neither side has fully committed to yet.
Why is Khamenei warning against division inside Iran?
Because there's genuine debate about whether negotiating with Trump is wise. Some see it as necessary; others see it as surrender. If that internal argument becomes public and heated, it weakens Iran's negotiating position and makes compromise harder to sell to the Iranian public.
What does 6,000 arrests tell us about the state of things inside Iran?
It tells you the government is frightened. Protesters, journalists, lawyers—they're all being swept up. It's not just about controlling dissent over the war; it's about controlling the narrative around these negotiations. The government needs to manage what Iranians think about any deal.