The economy is losing momentum rather than gaining it
Em uma segunda-feira de sinais mistos, o mercado financeiro brasileiro refletiu a tensão entre um crescimento ainda presente nos números trimestrais e um enfraquecimento visível no ritmo mensal da atividade econômica. O Ibovespa recuou modestamente, acumulando perdas semanais que revelam a cautela dos investidores diante dos efeitos defasados da política monetária restritiva e do arrefecimento dos estímulos fiscais. Como tantas vezes na história econômica, o presente carrega os custos das decisões do passado — e o futuro próximo promete cobrar essa conta com juros.
- O IBC-Br de março recuou 0,7% na comparação mensal, com serviços, indústria e agropecuária cedendo terreno simultaneamente — um sinal de que a desaceleração não é setorial, mas sistêmica.
- O Ibovespa fechou em 176.975 pontos com queda de 0,17%, mas o dado mais revelador foi a perda acumulada de 3,7% nas últimas cinco sessões, indicando uma retirada gradual e deliberada dos investidores.
- No cenário externo, o petróleo Brent disparou 2,6% para US$ 112,10, impulsionado por ameaças de Trump ao Irã e pela sinalização iraniana de cobrar pedágios no Estreito de Ormuz — pressão adicional sobre inflação e margens corporativas no Brasil.
- O dólar recuou frente ao real, oferecendo um raro alívio cambial em meio a um ambiente de aversão ao risco, mas sem reverter o tom defensivo que dominou o dia.
- Analistas da Suno Research alertam que os efeitos contracionistas da política monetária ainda estão se propagando pela economia, e que a desaceleração do crescimento nos próximos trimestres é um cenário cada vez mais provável.
O mercado acionário brasileiro iniciou a semana em compasso de espera. O Ibovespa oscilou perto da estabilidade ao longo do dia e fechou em 176.975 pontos, com perda de 0,17% — um recuo contido, mas que se somou a uma sequência de cinco sessões que apagou 3,7% do índice. O clima era de cautela, e os dados divulgados na segunda-feira ajudaram a explicar o porquê.
O IBC-Br, índice do Banco Central que serve como prévia do PIB, trouxe leituras ambíguas para março. No acumulado do primeiro trimestre, a atividade cresceu 1,3% frente ao trimestre anterior, e 1,8% na comparação anual — números positivos, mas sem entusiasmo. O problema estava na variação mensal: março recuou 0,7% em relação a fevereiro, com serviços caindo 0,8%, indústria e agropecuária cedendo 0,2% cada. O conjunto revelou uma economia perdendo fôlego, não ganhando.
A leitura dos analistas foi direta: os juros altos adotados para conter a inflação estão começando a cobrar seu preço, enquanto os estímulos do governo perdem força. A combinação aponta para uma desaceleração nos próximos trimestres — perspectiva que pesou sobre o humor dos investidores.
No cenário externo, o petróleo seguiu trajetória oposta. O Brent subiu 2,6% para US$ 112,10, o maior nível em duas semanas, após o presidente Trump renovar ameaças ao Irã e Teerã anunciar um novo órgão para administrar o Estreito de Ormuz, sinalizando possíveis pedágios sobre o tráfego marítimo na região. A tensão geopolítica adicionou pressão sobre custos e inflação globalmente. O único alívio veio do câmbio: o dólar recuou frente ao real, mas não foi suficiente para mudar o tom predominantemente defensivo do dia.
The Brazilian stock market opened the week on uncertain footing. The Ibovespa, the country's primary equity benchmark, started near flat but finished the day at 176,975 points—a modest loss of 0.17%. The decline extended a rougher stretch: over the previous five trading sessions, the index had shed 3.7% of its value, a cumulative retreat that signaled investor caution heading into the week.
The weakness in São Paulo reflected broader economic signals emerging from Brazil's activity data. The Central Bank's economic activity index, known as the IBC-Br, released its March reading on Monday. The headline numbers offered mixed signals. Over the first quarter of the year, economic activity had expanded 1.3% compared to the final three months of 2025. Measured year-over-year, the gain was 1.8%—positive, but modest. Yet when analysts looked at the month-to-month change, adjusting for seasonal patterns that typically repeat at the same time each year, the picture darkened: March had contracted 0.7% from February.
That monthly decline carried real weight because it revealed where the pressure points were. Services—the largest sector in Brazil's economy—had retreated 0.8%. Industrial output fell 0.2%. Agriculture, a cornerstone of Brazilian exports, also slipped 0.2%. None of these were catastrophic moves, but together they painted a picture of an economy losing momentum rather than gaining it.
Analysts at Suno Research offered a diagnosis: the economy was beginning to feel the delayed effects of the Central Bank's restrictive monetary policy—the rate hikes deployed over recent months to combat inflation. At the same time, the government's stimulus measures, which had provided some lift to activity, were fading. The combination suggested that economic growth would likely decelerate in the quarters ahead, a prospect that weighed on investor sentiment.
Globally, oil markets moved in the opposite direction. Brent crude, the international benchmark, opened the week above $110 per barrel and climbed 2.6% to $112.10—its highest level in two weeks. U.S. crude, the WTI contract, rose even more sharply, gaining 3.33% to close at $104.38. The strength in energy prices reflected geopolitical tensions: U.S. President Donald Trump had renewed threats against Iran over the weekend, and Iran's security apparatus responded by announcing a new body to manage the Strait of Hormuz, signaling intent to impose tolls on shipping through one of the world's most critical oil passages. The prospect of supply disruptions and higher energy costs added to the pressure on equity markets globally and in Brazil, where imported oil affects both inflation and corporate profitability.
The currency market, by contrast, moved in Brazil's favor. The dollar weakened against the real, a rare bright spot in an otherwise cautious session. Yet the overall tone remained defensive: investors were pricing in slower growth ahead, geopolitical risk, and the lag effects of monetary tightening that would take months to fully work through the economy.
Citas Notables
Economic deceleration expected in coming quarters as restrictive monetary policy effects compound and government stimulus measures fade— Rafael Perez, Suno Research
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did the stock market fall if the quarterly growth number was positive?
Because investors look ahead, not backward. The quarterly growth was real, but the monthly data showed March itself contracting. That's the signal that momentum is shifting—the economy is slowing down, not speeding up.
And the government stimulus measures—why do they matter so much?
They've been propping up activity artificially. Once they fade, you see what the underlying economy actually looks like. Right now, it looks tired.
What about the oil prices rising? Shouldn't that help Brazil?
Not necessarily. Brazil imports oil. Higher prices mean higher costs for businesses and consumers. The geopolitical risk—Trump's threats, Iran's response—that's creating uncertainty everywhere, including here.
So the market is bracing for worse ahead?
Yes. The restrictive monetary policy—the rate hikes—they take time to filter through. We're only now starting to see the real damage to activity. Analysts expect it to get worse before it stabilizes.
Is there anything positive in this picture?
The dollar fell, which is good for Brazilian borrowers and exporters. But it's a small comfort against the larger headwinds.