Castillo's lead is real but not insurmountable.
Con menos de tres semanas para la segunda vuelta presidencial en Perú, una encuesta de Datum revela que Pedro Castillo amplía su ventaja sobre Keiko Fujimori en un escenario que, como tantas elecciones antes, refleja las tensiones profundas de una nación que busca definir su rumbo. El margen de 5.5 puntos porcentuales habla de una preferencia real, pero no definitiva: en la política, como en la historia, los números son instantáneas, no destinos.
- Castillo suma impulso al subir 1.5 puntos hasta el 45.5%, mientras Fujimori cede terreno y cae al 40.1% en la medición del 18 al 20 de mayo.
- La pregunta directa —¿a quién votaría mañana?— arroja resultados casi idénticos, lo que sugiere que las preferencias están tomando forma pero aún no se han solidificado del todo.
- El voto en blanco escala al 9.1%, una masa crítica de electores que podría inclinar la balanza si alguno de los candidatos no logra convencer a los indecisos.
- Con la segunda vuelta a menos de tres semanas, la ventaja de Castillo es real pero no blindada: Fujimori conserva capacidad de movilización y el margen sigue siendo reversible.
A tres semanas de la segunda vuelta presidencial en Perú, una nueva encuesta de Datum muestra a Pedro Castillo, candidato de Perú Libre, con una ventaja de 5.5 puntos sobre Keiko Fujimori de Fuerza Popular: 45.5% frente a 40.1% en intención de voto. El sondeo, encargado por Perú21 y realizado entre el 18 y el 20 de mayo, marca un avance de punto y medio para Castillo respecto a la medición anterior, mientras Fujimori retrocede casi un punto.
Cuando la encuesta planteó una pregunta más inmediata —¿a quién votaría si la elección fuera mañana?— los resultados se mantuvieron prácticamente iguales: Castillo con 44.9% y Fujimori con 40.1%. Esa coherencia entre ambas mediciones sugiere una preferencia estable, aunque el espacio entre los dos candidatos deja margen para movimientos de último momento.
El voto en blanco, factor de peso en la política peruana, trepó al 9.1%, una porción del electorado lo suficientemente grande como para alterar el resultado si alguno de los candidatos no logra consolidar su base. El liderazgo de Castillo es concreto, pero no definitivo: Fujimori ha demostrado capacidad para mover votos, y los indecisos siguen siendo una variable abierta con la recta final apenas comenzando.
Three weeks before Peru's presidential runoff, a new Datum survey captures a race that remains fluid but tilted toward the left. Pedro Castillo, the Peru Libre candidate, has extended his advantage to 5.5 percentage points, registering 45.5% in voting intention while Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular holds 40.1%. The poll, conducted between May 18 and 20, shows movement in Castillo's direction—he gained a point and a half since the previous measurement—while Fujimori slipped nearly a full point.
The survey, commissioned by Perú21, also tested a more immediate question: whom would you vote for tomorrow? The results tracked closely with the overall intention figures. Castillo drew 44.9% support under that framing, while Fujimori remained at 40.1%. The consistency between the two measures suggests the preference is reasonably stable, though the gap between them leaves room for late movement.
Blank votes—a significant factor in Peruvian elections—climbed to 9.1%, a notable share of the electorate that could theoretically shift the outcome if either candidate fails to consolidate support. With the runoff less than three weeks away, the race remains competitive. Castillo's lead is real but not insurmountable. Fujimori has shown she can move votes, and the undecided and protest vote remain large enough to matter. The Datum numbers suggest momentum, but they do not yet suggest inevitability.
Citações Notáveis
When asked whom they would vote for tomorrow, voters favored Castillo at 44.9% versus Fujimori at 40.1%— Datum survey findings
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Why does a five-point lead matter this close to the vote? Isn't that within normal movement?
It matters because it's consistent. The poll tested the same preference two different ways and got nearly identical results. That suggests it's not noise—it's a real preference, not a statistical artifact.
What about the blank votes at 9.1%? That seems high.
It is. In Peru, blank votes are often a protest against both candidates, or a sign of genuine indecision. That's nearly one in ten voters who haven't committed. Either candidate could theoretically reach them, but it's also a risk—those votes don't help either of them.
Castillo gained 1.5 points. Is that movement or margin of error?
Movement. Datum is a serious firm. A point and a half in a few days, combined with Fujimori dropping nearly a point, suggests real shift in the electorate's thinking.
What does the "vote tomorrow" question tell us that the intention question doesn't?
It tests whether people are truly decided or just answering. When both questions track so closely, it suggests people know who they'll vote for. They're not wavering between the two answers.
So Castillo is winning?
Castillo is leading. Winning happens on election day. This is a snapshot from mid-May. Three weeks is a long time in politics.