A margin so decisive that even with all other candidates combined, they could not close the gap.
No Brasil de 2022, às vésperas de uma eleição que muitos descrevem como um momento de escolha civilizatória, as pesquisas começam a esboçar um destino: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, ex-presidente que governou o país em tempos de ascensão e depois enfrentou prisão e reabilitação judicial, lidera com folga suficiente para encerrar a disputa já no primeiro turno. A saída de rivais importantes estreitou o campo e amplificou sua vantagem, revelando não apenas preferências eleitorais, mas algo mais profundo — a forma como diferentes grupos sociais imaginam o futuro do país.
- Com 48% das intenções de voto contra 27% de Bolsonaro, Lula ultrapassa o limiar necessário para vencer no primeiro turno, tornando a eleição, ao menos por ora, uma corrida com resultado antecipado.
- A retirada de Sergio Moro e João Doria reorganizou o tabuleiro e deixou o campo oposicionista fragmentado, sem um polo capaz de concentrar o voto anti-Lula.
- A força do ex-presidente não é uniforme: mulheres, jovens de 16 a 24 anos, negros e católicos o apoiam com margens expressivas, sugerindo uma coalizão ampla e socialmente diversa.
- Mesmo sem ser apresentado em lista — quando os eleitores precisam lembrar o nome espontaneamente — Lula sobe de 30% para 38%, seu melhor desempenho desde que o Datafolha começou a medir a corrida, em maio de 2021.
- O cenário ainda é fluido: 4% dos eleitores estão indecisos e 7% pretendem votar em branco ou nulo, sinalizando que uma parcela do eleitorado ainda não encontrou onde se reconhecer.
Uma pesquisa Datafolha divulgada nesta quinta-feira mostrou Lula com 48% das intenções de voto e Bolsonaro com 27% — margem de 21 pontos, suficiente para uma vitória já no primeiro turno. O levantamento ouviu 2.556 eleitores em 181 municípios entre os dias 25 e 26 de maio, com margem de erro de dois pontos percentuais.
Foi a primeira sondagem realizada após a saída de Sergio Moro e João Doria da disputa, o que redesenhou o campo e deixou o restante dos candidatos em posições modestas. Ciro Gomes apareceu em terceiro lugar com 7%, empatado com a soma de brancos e nulos. André Janones e Simone Tebet marcaram 2% cada; outros nomes não chegaram a 1%.
A liderança de Lula se confirmou também na chamada pesquisa espontânea, em que o eleitor indica seu candidato sem ver uma lista: 38% o mencionaram sem ser induzidos, ante 22% de Bolsonaro. Em março, essa proporção era de 30% a 23% — o crescimento representa o melhor resultado do petista desde o início do monitoramento pelo instituto.
O perfil dos apoiadores revela uma base demograficamente diversa. Entre as mulheres, Lula venceu por 49% a 23%. Entre jovens de 16 a 24 anos, a diferença foi ainda maior: 58% contra 21%. Eleitores negros o escolheram em 57% dos casos, e católicos em 54% — números que apontam para uma coalizão consolidada, não para uma liderança frágil.
O Datafolha alertou que a comparação direta com pesquisas anteriores é limitada, pois os cenários mudaram com as desistências. Ainda assim, a tendência é clara: a poucos meses do pleito, Lula chega ao período decisivo da campanha no momento de maior força desde que a corrida começou a ser medida.
A new poll released on Thursday painted a stark picture of Brazil's presidential race: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the former president, held a commanding 21-point lead over the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, enough to claim victory in the first round of voting if the election were held that day. The Datafolha survey showed Lula at 48 percent support against Bolsonaro's 27 percent—a margin so decisive that even with all other candidates combined, they could not close the gap.
This was the first measurement taken by the institute after two major challengers stepped aside. Sergio Moro, backed by União Brasil, and João Doria, the PSDB candidate, had both withdrawn from the race in the weeks prior, reshaping the field. The poll, conducted over two days between May 25 and 26, surveyed 2,556 voters aged 16 and older across 181 municipalities. The margin of error was two percentage points in either direction.
The remaining field was fragmented. Ciro Gomes, a perennial candidate, registered 7 percent—the second-highest share. Seven percent also went to voters who said they would cast blank ballots or annul their votes. André Janones and Simone Tebet each pulled 2 percent. Pablo Marçal and Vera Lúcia garnered 1 percent each. A half-dozen other candidates, including Felipe d'Avila, Sofia Manzano, Leonardo Péricles, and General Santos Cruz, failed to register even 1 percent. Four percent of respondents remained undecided.
Lula's strength extended beyond the standard question. When asked unprompted—without being shown a list of names—38 percent of voters spontaneously named him as their choice, compared to 22 percent for Bolsonaro. In a similar survey conducted in March, those figures had been 30 percent and 23 percent respectively. Datafolha noted this represented Lula's highest unprompted support since the institute began tracking the race in May 2021.
The former president's coalition was built on distinct demographic foundations. Women favored him by a margin of 49 to 23 percent. Among voters aged 16 to 24, the gap was even wider: 58 percent backed Lula against 21 percent for Bolsonaro. Black voters chose Lula at 57 percent, while Catholics supported him at 54 percent. These numbers suggested Lula had consolidated support across multiple constituencies—a sign of durability rather than a narrow coalition.
Datafolha cautioned that this survey was not directly comparable to its March measurement, which had employed different scenarios and included candidates who had since exited the race. The institute, which had been commissioned by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, registered the poll with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court under number BR-05166/2022. The timing of the release—just months before the general election—meant these numbers would shape how candidates, media, and voters themselves understood the race's trajectory and what remained possible.
Notable Quotes
Lula's 48 percent support represents his highest unprompted preference since Datafolha began tracking the race in May 2021— Datafolha Institute
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a 21-point lead matter so much in a first-round context? Couldn't that still tighten?
In Brazil's system, you need 50 percent of valid votes to win outright in the first round. Lula's at 48, which is close, but the math is what matters—everyone else combined is at 40. Even if some undecided voters break toward Bolsonaro, Lula's cushion is structural, not fragile.
The poll came right after Moro and Doria dropped out. Did their supporters automatically go to Lula?
Not automatically, but the timing matters. Those were center-right candidates who might have split the anti-Lula vote. Their exit probably clarified the race for voters who were still sorting out their choices. The unprompted numbers—38 percent for Lula without being shown names—suggest people had already made up their minds.
What strikes you about the demographic breakdown?
The breadth of it. Women, young people, Black voters, Catholics—these aren't overlapping slices of the same group. Lula is winning across different parts of society. That's harder to reverse than if he were dependent on one demographic.
Is 48 percent actually enough to win first round?
No, technically he'd need 50 percent of valid votes. But Datafolha's saying if the election were today, he'd win. That suggests enough blank votes or abstentions that his 48 percent of those surveyed would cross the threshold. The math works, but it's tight.
What about Ciro Gomes at 7 percent? Could he be a spoiler?
Unlikely. He's been a fixture in Brazilian politics for years and never breaks through. At this point, he's more a placeholder for voters still deciding than a genuine alternative.