The question is not how much is selling, but who is buying
At a price near $62,700, Bitcoin is undergoing what CryptoQuant's CEO Ki Young Ju describes not as decline but as a generational transfer of ownership — early believers and miners releasing their holdings into the hands of American institutions and ETFs. Since March 2024, institutional buyers have absorbed 1.24 million BTC, more than the estimated holdings of Bitcoin's own creator, yet the price has not meaningfully moved. Whether this structural shift becomes the foundation of the next bull cycle or merely a ceiling depends on a question as old as markets themselves: not how much is being bought, but whether those buying it can sustain the faith.
- Bitcoin has stalled near $62,700 as original holders and miners sell at an accelerating pace, creating visible price pressure despite historic institutional absorption.
- Institutions and ETFs have quietly taken in 1.24 million BTC — nearly half of all exchange-held Bitcoin — yet the market has produced no sustained rally, raising urgent questions about where demand has gone.
- A separate analysis reveals total Bitcoin demand is contracting by 232,000 BTC per month, a dynamic driven by Bitcoin's own internal conditions rather than broader economic weakness.
- Short-term holders from this cycle now control 53% of realized capital, and if the pattern from the previous cycle holds, the market may not bottom until that figure reaches 68%.
- Ju's thesis remains conditionally optimistic: another bull cycle is possible, but only if Wall Street's growing ownership translates into future liquidity rather than a structural cap on upside.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, is watching Bitcoin's current stall near $62,700 and seeing something other than weakness. In a series of posts, he argued that what looks like a distribution phase is actually a generational handoff — early holders and miners selling, yes, but selling into the hands of American financial institutions, ETFs, and a new class of long-term investors.
The numbers are striking. Since January 2023, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust has net-acquired over 711,000 BTC. From March 2024 onward, ETFs and Grayscale combined have absorbed 1.24 million Bitcoin — more than the estimated holdings of Satoshi Nakamoto himself — without producing a lasting price rally. Ju's argument is that what matters is not the selling, but who is absorbing it and whether those buyers can eventually generate greater liquidity than the old guard ever could.
The holder base is also shifting demographically. Investors who bought during this cycle now represent 53% of realized capital, up from 15% two years ago. Ju sees this cohort gradually maturing into long-term holders, noting that in the previous cycle, Bitcoin bottomed only after this group reached 68% concentration — suggesting the current market may still have room to fall before finding its floor.
The picture is complicated by a separate finding from researcher Julio Moreno: total Bitcoin demand is contracting at 232,000 BTC per month, a condition driven by Bitcoin's own dynamics rather than stock market weakness or macroeconomic data. Institutional absorption is historic, yet selling pressure remains intense.
Ju acknowledged one further cost: as traditional finance takes ownership, some of Bitcoin's original cypherpunk ethos will inevitably dilute. He expressed genuine regret about that loss even while arguing for its necessity. His final position is constructive but conditional — another bull cycle will likely come, but only if Wall Street's growing stake becomes a source of future demand rather than a ceiling on what Bitcoin can become.
Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, is watching Bitcoin move through what looks like weakness but might actually be something else entirely: a generational handoff. The price has stalled near $62,700, and old-guard holders and miners are selling. But Ju argues that what matters most is not the selling itself—it's who is buying on the other side.
In a series of posts on X, Ju laid out a thesis that reframes the current market moment. Yes, Bitcoin's original holders and long-time miners are offloading their coins. But those coins are not disappearing into thin air. They are being absorbed by American financial institutions, exchange-traded funds, and a new cohort of long-term investors. The question, in Ju's view, is whether this transfer of ownership can eventually fuel another bull cycle or whether it represents a ceiling on Bitcoin's potential.
The math behind his argument is striking. Since January 2023, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust has purchased 711,206 BTC and sold only 32, netting 711,174 BTC out of circulation. From March 2024 onward, when Bitcoin was also trading around $63,000, ETFs have absorbed 509,102 BTC while Grayscale added another 650,706. Combined, institutional buyers have taken in 1.24 million Bitcoin—nearly half of all Bitcoin held on exchanges—without producing a sustained price rally. For context, Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin's creator, is estimated to hold about 1 million BTC. The institutions have absorbed more than that, yet the price has barely budged.
Ju's core argument hinges on ownership composition. For any asset, he wrote, what truly matters is who holds it. If the new owners are entities capable of bringing even greater liquidity into the market over time, then another rally could arrive at any moment. The average cost basis for Bitcoin investors sits around $53,000. Historically, bear markets end only after prices fall below the realized price—the average price at which all Bitcoin was last moved. Ju previously thought that level would be hard to reach again given institutional inflows and limited selling from Grayscale. But recent price action suggests unusually strong selling pressure.
There is also a demographic shift underway within Bitcoin's holder base. Two years ago, investors who had held Bitcoin for six months to two years represented 15 percent of realized capital. Today, that same cohort—people who bought during this cycle—represents 53 percent. Ju sees this as significant because short-term holders gradually mature into long-term holders. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin bottomed after this cohort reached 68 percent of realized capital. If history repeats, the current holders are evolving toward long-term commitment.
But the picture is not entirely clean. Ju acknowledged a separate analysis from researcher Julio Moreno showing that total Bitcoin demand, including both speculative and spot demand, is contracting at a monthly rate of 232,000 BTC. Moreno argued that the current correction stems directly from Bitcoin's own demand conditions, not from stock market weakness or manufacturing data—stocks are at all-time highs and factory activity is improving. This creates a divided picture: institutional absorption is historic, yet demand is shrinking and selling pressure remains intense.
Ju also acknowledged a cultural cost to this transition. Traditional financial institutions may provide a stronger demand base than Bitcoin's original cypherpunk believers, he wrote, but in that process, some of the original ethos will inevitably dilute. He expressed regret about that loss even as he argued for its necessity.
His final position remains constructive but conditional. Another bull cycle for Bitcoin will almost certainly come, Ju believes, but only if this transfer of ownership becomes a source of future liquidity rather than a cap on upside potential. As an investor, he wrote, he still believes in Bitcoin and thinks it is worth waiting a bit longer. The market will now test whether Wall Street's growing ownership can compensate for the supply leaving the hands of the old guard.
Citações Notáveis
For any asset, what really matters is who owns it. If the people who own it now are entities that can bring even greater liquidity in the future, then we can expect the next rally at any time.— Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant CEO
I still believe in Bitcoin and think it's worth waiting a bit longer.— Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant CEO
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
When you say institutions are absorbing Bitcoin, what does that actually mean for the price right now?
It means the price isn't moving much despite massive buying. That's unusual. Normally, when you pull over a million Bitcoin off the market in a year, the price should reflect that scarcity. But it hasn't. So either the selling pressure from old holders is matching the institutional buying exactly, or something else is happening.
What's the something else?
Demand itself is weakening. Bitcoin demand is contracting at 232,000 coins a month. So institutions are buying, yes, but fewer people overall want Bitcoin right now. The institutions are absorbing supply that would otherwise flood the market, but they're not creating new demand.
Does that mean the bull case is broken?
Not necessarily. Ki's argument is that these new institutional owners will eventually bring their own liquidity. They're not done buying. Once they finish accumulating, once they've built their positions, they'll have the firepower to move the market. The question is whether they're patient enough to wait.
And the old holders? The miners and the OGs?
They're cashing out. Some because they need to, some because they've held for so long that selling feels like the right move. But Ki sees that as healthy—it's a changing of the guard. The people who believed in Bitcoin when it was worth nothing are passing it to institutions that have billions to deploy.
But you said there's a cultural cost.
There is. Bitcoin was built on a certain philosophy—decentralized, anti-institutional. When Wall Street owns most of it, that philosophy gets quieter. Ki admits that openly. He regrets it. But he also thinks it's the price of Bitcoin becoming real money.