Seeing it confirmed by Powell himself sent shockwaves through equities worldwide.
Nos mercados financeiros, onde a confiança viaja mais rápido do que os fatos, uma sinalização de Jerome Powell sobre um aumento de juros de meio ponto percentual foi suficiente para reverberar do Atlântico até a Bolsa de São Paulo. Na sexta-feira, o Ibovespa encerrou em queda de 2,86%, aos 111.077 pontos, acumulando cinco sessões consecutivas de perdas e a pior semana em seis meses. O episódio lembra que, em economias interligadas, as decisões de um banco central distante podem redefinir o horizonte de investidores a milhares de quilômetros de distância.
- A sinalização de Powell sobre um aumento de 0,50% nos juros americanos em maio transformou uma expectativa difusa em certeza, detonando vendas em cadeia nas bolsas de Nova York, Europa e São Paulo.
- Vale despencou 5,8% — seu pior dia desde novembro — arrastada pela fraqueza do minério de ferro na China, enquanto CSN afundou 7,7% e Petrobras recuou entre 3,9% e 5% com o recuo do petróleo.
- O adiamento em três semanas do julgamento do TCU sobre a privatização da Eletrobras frustrou o calendário do governo e adicionou uma camada de incerteza doméstica ao cenário já turbulento.
- Natura aprofundou suas perdas, caindo mais 3,4% após um tombo de 15,6% dois dias antes, com a empresa projetando queda de receita e compressão de margens no primeiro trimestre.
- Analistas reconhecem oportunidades de longo prazo nas ações brasileiras, mas alertam que a volatilidade deve persistir nos próximos dias, com possibilidade de reversões bruscas em qualquer direção.
A Bolsa de São Paulo encerrou a sexta-feira em forte queda, com o Ibovespa recuando 2,86% para 111.077 pontos — o menor fechamento desde meados de março e a maior perda semanal em seis meses. O volume financeiro somou 28,8 bilhões de reais em um pregão marcado por cinco sessões consecutivas de baixa.
O estopim veio de Washington. Jerome Powell, presidente do Federal Reserve, confirmou que um aumento de meio ponto percentual nos juros americanos estaria na mesa para a reunião de maio. A declaração não era exatamente uma surpresa — o mercado já precificava esse movimento —, mas ouvi-la diretamente do chairman deu concretude ao cenário e provocou ondas de venda ao redor do mundo. Wall Street caiu entre 2,6% e 2,8%, e o índice europeu STOXX 600 recuou 1,8%. São Paulo, que havia ficado fechada na quinta-feira por feriado, abriu o pregão precisando absorver dois dias de pressão de uma só vez.
Os setores mais pesados do índice concentraram as maiores perdas. Vale despencou 5,8%, pressionada pela fraqueza do minério de ferro na bolsa de Dalian diante de dúvidas sobre a demanda chinesa. CSN caiu 7,7%, e Petrobras recuou entre 3,9% e 5% com o petróleo em baixa. Os grandes bancos também cederam: Itaú Unibanco perdeu 2% e Bradesco, 1,4%. Entre as demais ações, Locaweb, Iguatemi e Cogna registraram quedas superiores a 5%.
Dois eventos domésticos agravaram o clima. A Eletrobras caiu entre 4% e 5% após o Tribunal de Contas da União adiar por três semanas o julgamento sobre sua privatização, frustrando o cronograma do governo. Já a Natura aprofundou perdas recentes ao projetar queda de receita e compressão de margens no primeiro trimestre, levando o Citi a rebaixar o papel e cortar seu preço-alvo.
Apenas três ações conseguiram fechar no azul: Copel, Raia Drogasil e Ambev. Analistas como Pedro Serra, da Ativa Investimentos, e Lucas Monteiro, da Quantitas, reconheceram que o movimento pode se estender por mais alguns dias, mas enxergam oportunidades de longo prazo nas ações brasileiras — desde que o investidor esteja preparado para navegar a volatilidade que ainda está por vir.
São Paulo's stock market collapsed on Friday, shedding 2.86% as traders absorbed the weight of signals from across the Atlantic. The Ibovespa closed at 111,077 points—its lowest finish since mid-March and the steepest single-day drop since November. The damage extended beyond one bad session: the index had now fallen for five consecutive trading days, and the week itself marked a 4.39% decline, the sharpest weekly loss since October. Trading volume reached 28.8 billion reais.
The immediate trigger was clear. Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, had indicated that a half-percentage-point rate increase would be on the table when the central bank convened in May. The statement crystallized what markets had already begun to price in, but seeing it confirmed by Powell himself sent shockwaves through equities worldwide. Wall Street's major indices fell between 2.6% and 2.8%, extending losses from the previous day. Europe's STOXX 600 dropped 1.8%. São Paulo, which had been closed for a holiday when American markets tumbled Thursday, was playing catch-up—but the selling continued with fresh momentum.
Three sectors bore the brunt of the retreat. Vale, the mining giant, plummeted 5.8%, its worst day since early November and its eighth loss in nine sessions, as iron ore prices weakened on the Dalian exchange amid concerns about Chinese demand. Steel producers followed: CSN fell 7.7%, the steepest decline since late September. Petrobras, both preferred and ordinary shares, dropped 3.9% and 5% respectively, as crude oil retreated 1.6%. Banks, another pillar of the index, also retreated: Itaú Unibanco fell 2%, Bradesco 1.4%.
The damage was not confined to the heavyweights. Locaweb shed 6.3%, Iguatemi 5.4%, Cogna 5.3%. Eletrobras, the state-controlled power company, fell 4% to 5% after Brazil's Court of Accounts postponed by three weeks a ruling on its privatization—a setback that dashed government hopes of completing the capital raise by May, though the energy minister projected conclusion by July. Natura, the cosmetics maker, extended its losses, falling another 3.4% after a 15.6% plunge two days earlier, as the company guided investors toward a 12.7% to 13.3% decline in first-quarter net revenue and warned that adjusted Ebitda margins would compress to between 7% and 7.3%. Citi downgraded the stock and cut its price target.
Only three stocks in the index managed to finish higher. Copel rose 1.6%, Raia Drogasil advanced 0.2%, and Ambev gained 0.1%. Klabin, the pulp producer, was essentially flat, though the company announced a $30-per-ton price increase for short-fiber cellulose in China starting May 1.
Analysts offered measured perspective on what comes next. Pedro Serra, head of research at Ativa Investimentos, noted that markets were not simply catching up to Thursday's American losses but extending the move—a natural rhythm that could persist for days. Lucas Monteiro, a multimarket trader at Quantitas, framed Powell's statement as confirmation rather than surprise; the half-point hike had already been the consensus bet, but having it articulated by the Fed chair made it concrete. Serra saw long-term opportunities in Brazilian equities but expected volatility to persist in the near and medium term, with the possibility of sharp reversals in either direction.
Domestically, investors were also monitoring statements from Roberto Campos Neto, president of Brazil's central bank, and the shifting political landscape. The combination of tighter monetary conditions in the world's largest economy, weakness in commodity prices, and domestic uncertainty had created a moment of genuine unease—not panic, but the kind of careful reassessment that precedes either a sustained decline or a sudden reversal.
Notable Quotes
We are seeing not just the catch-up from the previous day's losses but the continuation of that movement.— Pedro Serra, head of research, Ativa Investimentos
It is not a new reality, but a more concrete reality. So it is natural that the market carries this weight for a few days.— Lucas Monteiro, multimarket trader, Quantitas
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did a statement from Powell in Washington hit São Paulo so hard? Wasn't the market already expecting a rate hike?
It was expecting it, yes, but there's a difference between betting on something and hearing it confirmed by the person who controls it. Powell made it concrete. That shifted it from probability to policy.
And the timing—why did it hurt so much worse on Friday?
Because Thursday, when the American market fell, São Paulo was closed for a holiday. So Friday was the first chance to react. But it wasn't just catch-up. The selling continued, which meant traders were processing not just Thursday's losses but the broader implications of what Powell said.
Vale dropped 5.8%. That's a huge company. What was that about?
Iron ore prices fell in China. Demand is weakening there. Vale is the world's largest iron ore exporter, so when China sneezes, Vale gets pneumonia. And it had already lost eight of its last nine sessions, so the stock was fragile.
What about the banks? They fell too.
Higher interest rates in America make emerging market assets less attractive. Money flows out. And there's a broader risk-off mood—when investors get nervous, they sell everything, not just the obvious victims.
Did anything go up?
Almost nothing. Copel, Raia Drogasil, Ambev—three stocks. Klabin announced a price increase for pulp, but even that barely moved. The mood was too dark.
What do analysts think happens next?
They expect volatility but not necessarily a long decline. Serra at Ativa said he sees long-term opportunities but short-term chop. It could reverse sharply. Nobody thinks this is the start of a months-long bear market—not yet, anyway.