a conflict that had already claimed roughly 260,000 lives
In the weeks before Colombia's presidential election, the National Liberation Army announced a ten-day suspension of hostilities — a gesture that speaks to the enduring human longing for peace even amid decades of armed conflict. The ELN, a guerrilla force that has shaped and scarred Colombian life for generations, extended this ceasefire as both a practical pause and a signal to whoever would next hold power: negotiation remains possible. With roughly 260,000 lives already claimed by Colombia's internal war, the next president will inherit not only a nation at a crossroads, but an armed organization offering, however cautiously, an open door.
- The ELN's ten-day ceasefire, timed precisely to bracket both the May 29 election and a potential June 19 runoff, carries the weight of a country that has never fully escaped its own armed shadow.
- Past attempts at peace collapsed in 2019 when an ELN bombing killed more than twenty police cadets, leaving negotiations frozen and trust in ruins.
- The group's decentralized command structure makes any agreement fragile — no single leader can guarantee that all units will honor a ceasefire or comply with demands to stop kidnapping and mining.
- Frontrunner Gustavo Petro and center-right candidate Federico Gutierrez both face the same inheritance: a guerrilla organization that finances itself through extortion and trafficking, yet is publicly signaling willingness to talk.
- Colombia's defense ministry stayed silent on the announcement, and skeptics see the ceasefire as political theater — a way to appear reasonable before votes are cast, with war resuming once they are counted.
On a Monday in May, Colombia's National Liberation Army announced it would suspend armed operations for ten days, from May 25 through June 3 — a window carefully drawn to cover both the presidential election on May 29 and a possible runoff on June 19. The group said it reserved the right to defend itself if attacked, but the gesture carried a message beyond the tactical: the ELN was willing to negotiate peace with the next government, whoever that turned out to be.
The announcement followed a familiar pattern. The ELN, a leftist guerrilla organization operating in Colombia for decades, had declared a similar pause during legislative elections just two months prior. But this time the stakes felt larger. The two leading candidates — left-wing Gustavo Petro and center-right Federico Gutierrez — would each inherit a conflict that has killed approximately 260,000 people, and an armed group signaling, however cautiously, that it was ready to talk.
The history behind that signal is heavy. Peace negotiations with outgoing President Iván Duque collapsed in 2019 after an ELN bombing killed more than twenty police cadets in Bogotá. Duque demanded the group stop kidnapping, release hostages, and abandon anti-personnel mines — conditions the ELN struggled to meet in part because its command is so fragmented that no central authority can enforce compliance across all its units.
That decentralization is what makes the ELN a harder problem than the FARC, which signed a peace agreement in 2016. The ELN sustains itself through kidnapping, extortion, drug trafficking, and illegal mining — activities not easily abandoned without some alternative path to legitimacy. Colombia's defense ministry offered no immediate response to the ceasefire declaration, and past governments have dismissed such moves as electoral theater. Whether this moment would prove different was a question only the next president — and the ELN itself — could answer.
On Monday, Colombia's National Liberation Army announced it would lay down its weapons for ten days, a gesture timed to the country's presidential election cycle. The ceasefire would hold from May 25 through June 3, the group said in a statement, though it made clear it reserved the right to fight back if the military attacked first. Colombians were heading to the polls on May 29 to choose their next president, the person who would govern the country until 2026. If no candidate cleared fifty percent of the vote that day, a runoff would follow on June 19—and the ELN's ceasefire window was designed to cover both contests.
The announcement carried a familiar rhythm. The ELN, a leftist guerrilla organization that has operated in Colombia for decades, regularly suspends hostilities around elections. It had done the same just two months earlier during legislative voting. This time, the group also signaled something broader: it was willing to sit down and negotiate peace with whoever won the presidency. That message seemed directed at the two frontrunners in the polls—Gustavo Petro, a left-wing candidate, and Federico Gutierrez, who occupied the center-right. One of them would inherit a conflict that had already claimed roughly 260,000 lives.
The ELN's overture came with a complicated history attached. The group had attempted peace talks with the outgoing president, Iván Duque, but those negotiations had frozen in 2019 after an ELN bombing killed more than twenty police cadets in Bogotá. The attack hardened the government's position. Duque had demanded that the ELN stop kidnapping civilians, release hostages it held, and cease laying anti-personnel mines—demands the group found difficult to meet, partly because its command structure was so fragmented that no single leader could enforce such orders across all its units.
The ELN was widely considered more radical and more decentralized than the FARC, the other major guerrilla organization in Colombia. The FARC had signed a peace agreement in 2016, but the ELN remained outside that framework. The group financed itself through kidnapping, extortion, drug trafficking, and illegal mining—activities that would be hard to abandon without some alternative source of revenue or legitimacy. The incoming president would face the question of whether negotiating with such an organization was possible, and if so, on what terms.
Colombia's defense ministry did not immediately comment on the ceasefire announcement. In the past, the government had dismissed such declarations as tactical moves designed to shape the election itself—a way of appearing reasonable to voters while maintaining the group's capacity to wage war once voting ended. Whether the ELN's latest move would be seen as a genuine step toward peace or as political theater remained to be seen. What was clear was that the next government would inherit not just a conflict, but a guerrilla organization signaling it was ready to talk.
Citações Notáveis
The ELN reserved the right to use force to defend itself from attacks by the army— ELN statement
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does the ELN declare ceasefires around elections? What's the strategic value?
It's partly about optics—showing restraint during a democratic moment. But it's also practical. Elections draw international attention, and violence during voting looks worse. The group gets to appear statesmanlike while keeping its structure intact.
The statement says they reserve the right to defend themselves. Doesn't that undermine the ceasefire?
It does, in a way. It's a loophole. They're saying they won't initiate attacks, but if the military moves against them, all bets are off. It's a ceasefire with conditions.
Why did talks with Duque fail so completely?
The 2019 bombing was the breaking point. You kill over twenty police cadets and trust evaporates. But the deeper problem is structural—the ELN doesn't have a unified command. Even if leaders wanted to stop kidnapping or mining, they couldn't enforce it across all their units. That made Duque's demands impossible to meet.
So the next president inherits an impossible situation?
Not impossible, but genuinely difficult. The ELN is signaling openness to talks, which is something. But they're also a decentralized organization with deep roots in criminal economies. Any peace agreement would have to address how they transition away from those activities.
What's different about the ELN compared to the FARC?
The FARC was more hierarchical, more ideologically coherent. The ELN is more fragmented, more radical in some ways, and more embedded in local criminal networks. The FARC could sign a deal and enforce it. The ELN would struggle with that.