More than half the electorate had stayed home from the first round.
En las semanas finales antes de la segunda vuelta presidencial chilena del 19 de diciembre de 2021, el país se encontraba ante una encrucijada histórica: el joven izquierdista Gabriel Boric lideraba las encuestas frente al conservador José Antonio Kast, pero la verdadera batalla no se libraría entre los ya convencidos, sino en el vasto territorio de los indecisos y los ausentes. Chile, como tantas democracias contemporáneas, descubría que el destino político no lo escriben los convencidos, sino quienes aún no han decidido si vale la pena participar.
- Boric lidera con hasta 40% frente al 33% de Kast, pero entre 15 y 28% de los votantes permanece sin decidir, una franja suficiente para invertir cualquier pronóstico.
- El 47% de abstención en la primera vuelta convierte a los no votantes en el actor más poderoso de la elección, y ambas campañas lo saben.
- La incorporación de una alta funcionaria del gobierno de Piñera al equipo de Kast enciende sospechas sobre la neutralidad del Estado y revela la movilización abierta del establishment conservador.
- Kast viaja a Estados Unidos para reunirse con empresarios y el senador Marco Rubio, buscando proyectar una imagen de estadista internacional y contrarrestar su etiqueta de candidato extremista.
- La carrera se ha convertido en una competencia por conquistar a los ausentes: Boric apuesta a movilizar a quienes no votaron, mientras Kast consolida el voto de centroderecha de Sichel y corteja al mundo financiero.
A menos de tres semanas de la segunda vuelta del 19 de diciembre, Gabriel Boric encabezaba las encuestas con entre 39 y 40 por ciento de intención de voto, mientras José Antonio Kast oscilaba entre 24 y 33 por ciento según el sondeo. Sin embargo, la magnitud de los indecisos —hasta 28 por ciento— mantenía el resultado genuinamente abierto.
Kast había ganado la primera vuelta del 21 de noviembre por apenas dos puntos porcentuales, en una elección marcada por la indiferencia: el 47 por ciento de los chilenos habilitados para votar no lo hizo. Esa cifra transformó la segunda vuelta en una batalla por los ausentes más que por los convencidos.
El mapa de alianzas complicaba el panorama. Los votantes de Franco Parisi, tercer lugar con 12,8 por ciento, favorecían a Boric en una proporción de tres a uno. En cambio, quienes habían apoyado a Sebastián Sichel se inclinaban mayoritariamente hacia Kast, con 53 por ciento de preferencia. Ambos candidatos sabían que la composición del electorado el día de la votación lo cambiaría todo.
Kast, por su parte, sumó a Paula Daza —exsubsecretaria de Salud del gobierno de Piñera— a su equipo, lo que desató acusaciones de que la administración vigente abandonaba cualquier pretensión de neutralidad. Más llamativo aún fue su viaje a Estados Unidos, donde se reunió con empresarios del sector financiero, tecnológico y energético, y mantuvo un encuentro privado con el senador republicano Marco Rubio. El periplo parecía diseñado para desactivar la imagen de candidato extremista que sus adversarios le habían construido en Chile.
Con el tiempo agotándose, la contienda se definía en ese espacio difuso entre la convicción y la abstención. Boric tenía las encuestas; Kast tenía el respaldo del establishment. Los indecisos y los que aún no habían decidido si participar escribirían el desenlace.
Less than three weeks before Chile would choose its next president, Gabriel Boric held a commanding lead in the polls. The leftist candidate from the Broad Front coalition was drawing between 39 and 40 percent support in surveys released just days before the December 19 runoff, while his conservative opponent, José Antonio Kast, trailed at somewhere between 24 and 33 percent depending on which pollster you consulted. But those numbers told only part of the story. Somewhere between 15 and 28 percent of voters remained genuinely undecided, a pool large enough to reshape the entire race.
Kast had won the first round on November 21, narrowly edging Boric by just two percentage points—27.9 percent to 25.8 percent. It was a thin victory in a contest marked by disengagement: fewer than half of eligible voters had bothered to show up. In a country where voting is optional, that 47 percent turnout meant more than 50 million Chileans had stayed home. Both campaigns now understood that the second round would be decided not by converting each other's voters, but by reaching into that vast pool of the absent and the undecided.
The arithmetic of coalition-building revealed the stakes. When pollsters asked first-round voters where they might go, the picture grew more complicated. Among those who had supported Franco Parisi, the centrist businessman who finished third with 12.8 percent, roughly 37 percent said they would vote for Boric in the runoff, while only about 12 percent indicated they would support Kast. But voters who had backed Sebastián Sichel, the establishment candidate from the ruling Chile Vamos coalition, showed the opposite tendency: 53 percent leaned toward Kast, while just 16 percent favored Boric. The remaining voters in both camps remained genuinely uncertain.
Boric's strategy was straightforward. He announced he would spend the final weeks trying to persuade that 53 percent of the electorate that had sat out the first round to come vote for him on December 19. His campaign operated from a position of strength, but also with the knowledge that polls could shift dramatically if the composition of the voting population changed.
Kast, meanwhile, was making moves that suggested some anxiety about his position. His campaign brought on Paula Daza, who had served as deputy health secretary under former president Sebastián Piñera, to join his team full-time. Her departure from government to work explicitly for the conservative candidate sparked immediate controversy. Opposition figures read it as a signal that the sitting administration was throwing its weight behind Kast, despite official claims of neutrality. The move underscored how much was at stake: the establishment was visibly mobilizing.
But Kast's most striking maneuver came when he traveled to the United States in the final stretch of the campaign. He scheduled meetings with representatives from the financial, technology, and renewable energy sectors, planning to present his economic program to American business leaders. The trip also included a private meeting with U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, a prominent Republican. The timing and the choice of interlocutors suggested a deliberate effort to reshape his image abroad—and perhaps at home. In Chile, Kast had been branded by opponents as an extremist, a characterization that dogged his campaign. A tour through American boardrooms and congressional offices seemed designed to launder that reputation, to show that serious international figures took him seriously as a potential leader.
With less than three weeks remaining, the race had become a contest over who could move the unmoved. Boric held the polling advantage, but Kast had the machinery of the state and the backing of the financial establishment. The undecided voters, the abstainers, the ones who had not yet made up their minds—they would decide whether Chile's next president would come from the left or the right.
Citas Notables
Boric announced he would spend the final weeks trying to persuade the 53 percent of the electorate that had sat out the first round to come vote for him— Gabriel Boric's campaign strategy
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Kast's trip to the United States matter so much in a Chilean election?
Because he's trying to change the story about who he is. At home, he's been painted as an extremist. Meeting with American senators and tech executives tells voters—especially moderate ones—that he's acceptable to serious international figures. It's a credibility play.
But wouldn't that backfire? Wouldn't it look like he's taking orders from Washington?
That's the risk. But his campaign calculated that the benefit of appearing mainstream and internationally connected outweighs the nationalist critique. He's behind in the polls and needs to move undecided voters. A meeting with Marco Rubio signals stability and alignment with the U.S., which matters to Chile's business class.
What about Boric's advantage in the polls—is it actually as solid as it looks?
Not entirely. Yes, he leads 39 to 33 in one poll, 40 to 24 in another. But 15 to 28 percent of voters are genuinely undecided. That's a huge swing vote. And the first round showed only 47 percent turnout. If Boric can mobilize non-voters, he wins. If Kast can suppress turnout or flip undecideds, he has a path.
The Sichel voters seem to be breaking for Kast. Doesn't that worry Boric's team?
It should. Sichel represented the establishment center-right. When 53 percent of his voters say they'll vote for Kast, that's a consolidation of the right. But Parisi voters—the populist center—are splitting toward Boric. It's a race for which coalition can hold together.
So this is really about turnout and persuasion in the final weeks?
Exactly. Both campaigns know the election will be decided by people who either didn't vote in round one or haven't made up their minds. It's not about converting true believers. It's about reaching the disengaged and the uncertain.