The market is waiting for conviction it hasn't yet found.
Nifty 50 needs sustained breakout above 24,250 to restore bullish momentum; support at 23,650 could lead to further downside if breached. FIIs have sold Rs 8,828 crore in a single session, with cumulative outflows of Rs 17,140 crore signaling bearish institutional positioning.
- Nifty 50 needs sustained breakout above 24,250 to restore bullish momentum
- FIIs sold Rs 8,828 crore on April 24; cumulative outflows of Rs 17,140 crore over five sessions
- Long-short ratio in index futures declined to 19.28% from 22.66%, signaling short position buildup
- Nifty IT index fell 10.31% while banking held steady, creating range-bound trading
- Support level at 23,650 aligns with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement; break below could lead to 23,300
Technical analyst Sudeep Shah identifies key resistance at 24,250 for Nifty 50 recovery, while FIIs continue net selling. He recommends buying PNB Housing Finance and Glenmark Pharma for next week.
The Indian market is caught between two forces, and the outcome depends on whether traders can push past a narrow band of resistance. Sudeep Shah, who leads technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, laid out the arithmetic plainly: the Nifty 50 needs to break decisively above 24,250 to restore any real bullish momentum. Right now, the index is stuck in a corrective phase, having fallen below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The pullback that began from a low of 22,182 has lost steam. Last week alone, the index dropped 1.87 percent, with the IT sector leading the decline—down 10.31 percent—while banking stocks held relatively steady. That sectoral split is creating a kind of stalemate, keeping the broader market range-bound rather than trending decisively in either direction.
The technical picture is one of fading strength. The daily RSI failed to cross 60 and has slipped below its 9-day average. The MACD histogram has been declining for five consecutive sessions. These are not the signals of a market ready to surge higher. If the index does break below the 23,650 support level—which aligns with the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally—further downside toward 23,300 becomes likely. For now, though, Shah sees the market likely to remain trapped within a range, with stock-specific opportunities emerging rather than broad index strength.
Foreign institutional investors have been a steady source of selling pressure. On April 24 alone, FIIs offloaded Rs 8,828 crore from the cash market, a single-day figure that exceeds the combined outflows of the previous four sessions. Over the past five sessions, cumulative outflows have reached Rs 17,140 crore. This is a sharp reversal from mid-April, when FIIs briefly turned net buyers, investing Rs 1,732 crore between April 15 and 17. The shift back to risk-off sentiment has been swift. On the derivatives side, the long-short ratio in index futures has compressed to 19.28 percent from 22.66 percent just days earlier, signaling a steady accumulation of short positions. The institutional positioning, in other words, is decidedly bearish.
Bank Nifty, which has outperformed the broader market, shows a different character. The index took support near a previous swing low on Friday and mounted a modest recovery, suggesting that buyers are still willing to step in at lower levels. The weekly chart displays a small-bodied candle with shadows on both ends—a pattern that speaks to indecision, a balance between buyers and sellers. The Bank Nifty to Nifty ratio continues to show higher highs and higher lows, reflecting its relative strength. Technically, the index is trading above its 20-day EMA, a positive sign for the near term. The daily RSI sits at 52.39, hovering near its 9-day average, which suggests neutral momentum rather than directional conviction. The 20-day EMA zone around 55,700–55,600 is expected to act as immediate support. On the upside, the 200-day EMA in the 56,600–56,700 range will be crucial resistance. A sustained breakout above 56,700 could trigger a fresh uptrend, potentially pushing the index toward 57,500 and then 58,200 in the short term.
For investors looking for individual stock opportunities, Shah flagged two midcaps. PNB Housing Finance has delivered a strong breakout above its previous swing high of Rs 1,015, having rallied nearly 23 percent from its April 8 low of Rs 835. The RSI is trending higher, indicating strengthening bullish momentum, while a rising ADX points to increasing trend strength. The MACD remains above both the signal and zero lines with an upward slope. Shah recommends accumulation in the Rs 1,040–1,030 zone with a stop-loss at Rs 990, with a near-term target of Rs 1,120.
Glenmark Pharma has broken out from a consolidation range between Rs 2,275 and Rs 2,205, surpassing the previous swing high of Rs 2,298. The widening gap between the directional indicator lines—with DI+ firmly above DI—highlights clear bullish dominance. The rising ratio line in the Glenmark-to-Pharma sector chart indicates consistent outperformance within the sector. Shah recommends accumulation in the Rs 2,310–2,290 zone with a stop-loss at Rs 2,210, targeting Rs 2,470 in the short term.
The broader market setup remains one of caution. Until the Nifty can sustain a move above 24,250, the bulls lack the conviction to drive a sustained rally. The bears, meanwhile, have not yet seized complete control—the support zone at 23,650 remains intact. What comes next depends on whether institutional selling continues to weigh on sentiment, or whether the technical setup at these levels attracts fresh buying interest. For now, the market is waiting.
Citas Notables
The momentum of the pullback rally that began from the recent low of 22,182 has noticeably weakened over the past week.— Sudeep Shah, SBI Securities
A sustained move above 24,250 can revive bullish momentum; below 23,650 could open the door to further downside towards 23,300.— Sudeep Shah, SBI Securities
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the 24,250 level matter so much? It's just a number on a chart.
It's where the market has repeatedly turned back. When an index bounces off a low and then encounters resistance at the same level multiple times, traders begin to treat it as a barrier. If Nifty can break above it decisively, it signals that the selling pressure has been exhausted and buyers are in control. Right now, the market keeps testing it and failing, which is why momentum is fading.
The FIIs sold Rs 8,828 crore in one day. That sounds catastrophic. Is it?
It's significant, but context matters. That single day was worse than the previous four days combined, which suggests a sudden shift in sentiment rather than a gradual exit. The fact that they were net buyers just a week earlier makes this reversal more telling—it shows how quickly institutional conviction can flip when the technical picture deteriorates.
You mentioned the IT sector fell 10.31 percent while banking held up. Why does that matter?
Because both sectors are heavily weighted in the Nifty. When they move in opposite directions, they cancel each other out. The index gets stuck in a range instead of trending. It's like two equally strong hands pulling in opposite directions—nothing moves decisively until one hand lets go.
What would make you confident the bulls are back in control?
A sustained close above 24,250, not just a touch. And it would need to be accompanied by the RSI crossing 60 and staying there, the MACD histogram turning upward, and institutional buying returning. Right now, none of those things are happening together. That's why I'm cautious.
Why recommend PNB Housing and Glenmark specifically when the broader market is uncertain?
Because uncertainty at the index level creates opportunity at the stock level. These two have their own momentum independent of what the Nifty does. PNB Housing has broken above a key resistance level with rising ADX, which means the trend is strengthening. Glenmark is outperforming its sector. They're not betting on the index—they're betting on these specific stocks to continue their own uptrends.
If the market breaks below 23,650, how far down does it go?
The next level of support is 23,300. But that's not the end of the story. If that breaks, you're looking at a retest of the April low around 22,182. The question is whether buyers will step in at these lower levels or whether institutional selling continues to accelerate.