Book now or pay more later as summer approaches
In a season when the world's skies are shadowed by geopolitical fire, Ryanair's Michael O'Leary delivered a quiet but pointed counsel to travelers: the window of affordable fares is open now, but not for long. Jet fuel, that invisible engine beneath every journey, has doubled in price over two months as conflict tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz — and what begins as a disruption in distant waters eventually lands in the cost of a seat from Lisbon to London. The airline's strong annual profits offer a moment of stability, but O'Leary's gaze is fixed not on what was earned, but on what uncertainty lies ahead.
- Jet fuel prices have doubled in two months, driven by Middle East military tensions and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a shock that strikes directly at 30% of every airline's operating costs.
- A strange, temporary calm has settled over ticket prices, with fares on major routes dipping 10% as nervous passengers delay bookings — but industry insiders see this as the quiet before the summer surge.
- Ryanair has hedged 80% of its fuel needs through March 2027 at $67 per barrel, giving it a competitive shield while rivals remain exposed to spot prices now trading above $140.
- The remaining 20% of unhedged fuel purchases represents a live vulnerability, and O'Leary has openly acknowledged it could weigh on results if prices hold at current levels.
- Passengers are booking later than ever, compressing the airline's forecasting window and making the summer peak season a high-stakes, last-minute equation for the entire industry.
Michael O'Leary appeared before investors on Monday with a dual message: Ryanair had delivered a strong year — profits up 40% to 2.3 billion euros — but the road ahead demands caution. Jet fuel prices have doubled in two months, a direct consequence of escalating conflict in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Since fuel accounts for roughly 30% of an airline's operating costs, the pressure on ticket prices is both inevitable and already in motion.
For the moment, the market is behaving counterintuitively. Ticket prices on major routes have actually fallen around 10%, as passengers rattled by headlines about fuel shortages and inflation have pulled back on bookings. O'Leary reads this as a temporary pause, not a trend. Once summer demand reasserts itself, he expects fares to climb steadily through the season — and his advice to travelers is simple: book now.
Ryanair has positioned itself carefully against the volatility. The airline locked in fuel coverage for 80% of its needs through March 2027 at $67 per barrel, a rate below last year's, giving it a meaningful cost advantage over European competitors still exposed to the open market. The remaining 20%, however, is trading at $140 per barrel — a live risk O'Leary did not shy away from acknowledging.
Despite the turbulence, the airline has no plans to cut capacity. European fuel supplies are confirmed stable through at least mid-July, drawing from West Africa, the Americas, and Norway. Passengers, meanwhile, are booking closer to their travel dates than usual, making forecasting harder. As for profit guidance for fiscal 2027, O'Leary declined to offer any — the geopolitical landscape, from the Middle East to Ukraine to potential air traffic control disruptions, leaves too much unresolved. The summer, he said, will tell the story.
Michael O'Leary stood before investors on Monday with a straightforward message: if you're planning to fly this summer, book now. The Ryanair CEO was presenting the airline's annual results—a strong set of numbers, with profits jumping 40% to 2.3 billion euros in the fiscal year ending March 31—but his attention was fixed on what comes next. Jet fuel prices have doubled in the past two months, a consequence of escalating military tensions in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That fuel represents roughly 30% of an airline's operating costs, and the math is simple: when it doubles, everything else follows.
For now, there's a strange calm in the market. A recent Financial Times analysis found that ticket prices on major routes have actually fallen by at least 10% in recent weeks. Passengers, spooked by headlines about fuel shortages and inflation, have pulled back on bookings. But O'Leary sees this as a temporary reprieve. "The prices in recent weeks have eased slightly in response to economic uncertainty caused by higher oil prices," he said. "There's been media coverage about fuel shortage fears and inflation risk affecting consumer spending." What he's watching for is the moment that uncertainty lifts and summer demand returns. When it does, he expects fares to climb steadily through the season.
Ryanair has hedged its bets carefully. The airline has locked in fuel coverage for 80% of its needs through March 2027 at $67 per barrel—a price lower than what it paid the year before. This protective measure, O'Leary explained, will shield most of the company's earnings over the next twelve months and give Ryanair a cost advantage over European competitors still exposed to volatile spot prices. But that leaves 20% of fuel purchases unhedged, and those are trading at $140 per barrel. "If prices remain at these elevated levels for the rest of the year, it will impact our results," he acknowledged.
Demand, he noted, remains fundamentally strong heading into the peak season, though the pattern has shifted. Passengers are booking closer to their travel dates rather than planning months ahead, which makes forecasting trickier for the airline. Despite the fuel crisis, O'Leary ruled out cutting flight capacity. The company is confident that European fuel supplies will hold steady through at least mid-July, drawing from West Africa, the Americas, and Norway. "Our suppliers have confirmed there will be no interruption in jet fuel supply to Europe through the end of June or mid-July, and we expect that to continue," he said.
When asked about guidance for the 2027 fiscal year, O'Leary declined to offer one. The geopolitical landscape—Middle East conflict, the war in Ukraine, potential air traffic control strikes or mismanagement across Europe—creates too much uncertainty. "The final result will depend entirely on last-minute bookings and fares during the summer 2026 peak," he explained. "Without visibility into the second half of the year and with strong volatility in fuel prices and supply, it's too early to provide meaningful profit guidance for fiscal 2027." For now, the airline is watching the horizon and asking passengers to do the same: book early, because the price you see today may not be the price you see in July.
Citas Notables
We believe fuel prices will remain elevated in the short term, so we encourage all passengers thinking of traveling this summer to book early and quickly, because we think prices will rise throughout the summer.— Michael O'Leary, Ryanair CEO
If prices remain at these elevated levels for the rest of the year, it will impact our results.— Michael O'Leary, Ryanair CEO
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why is Ryanair so confident about fuel supply when the Strait of Hormuz is blocked?
They're not betting on the strait staying open. They're saying Europe has alternative sources—West Africa, the Americas, Norway. Those routes are working. The real risk isn't running out of fuel; it's the price of the fuel that does get through.
So the 10% price drop we're seeing now—that's not a sign things are getting better?
It's a sign of fear. Passengers are scared, so they're not booking. Airlines are cutting prices to fill seats. But O'Leary is essentially saying: don't mistake a demand shock for a supply fix. Once people stop being afraid, or once summer hits and they have to travel anyway, prices will climb again.
The hedging strategy sounds like it protects them. What's the catch?
The catch is the 20% they didn't hedge. At $140 a barrel, that's expensive. If fuel stays that high all year, it eats into profits even with the hedge in place. They're protected, but not invulnerable.
Why won't he give guidance for next year?
Because he genuinely can't see far enough ahead. Geopolitics, fuel volatility, labor disputes in European air traffic control—any of those could shift the picture. He's being honest about the limits of what he knows.
What's the real message to passengers?
Book now or pay more later. It's not complicated. The airline expects demand to return and prices to rise with it. This window of lower fares won't last.