The gap between them fell within the survey's margin of error
A week before Peru's presidential runoff, the country finds itself suspended between two visions of its future, neither commanding a clear majority. Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori have converged into a statistical tie, their fortunes reversing sharply within a single week, while nearly a quarter of the electorate either withholds judgment or rejects both paths entirely. In such moments, a democracy reveals not just its divisions but the depth of its uncertainty about what it wishes to become.
- Castillo's once-commanding 10-point lead has evaporated in seven days, collapsing into a margin too thin for any confident prediction.
- Fujimori's surge of nearly 4 points signals a late-race mobilization, yet 43% of voters say they will refuse to support her under any circumstances.
- More than one in five Peruvians remains either undecided or planning to cast a blank or null ballot, a mass of unresolved political will that could decide everything.
- With the margin of error swallowing the gap between candidates, the final week becomes a race not for persuasion but for turnout and consolidation.
- The election now hinges on whether either candidate can reach voters who distrust both options — a task neither has yet accomplished.
One week before Peru's runoff election, the race had become too close to call. Pedro Castillo of Perú Libre held 40.3 percent support in the latest IEP polling, while Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular stood at 38.3 percent — a two-point gap that fell within the survey's 2.8-point margin of error.
The shift had been swift and dramatic. Just seven days earlier, Castillo had led by more than ten points. In the span of a week, he shed 4.5 points while Fujimori gained nearly four. The IEP survey, conducted by telephone across all 24 departments with over 1,200 respondents, captured a country still in motion.
Nearly 22 percent of the electorate remained either undecided, planning to abstain, or intending to cast blank or null ballots — a substantial bloc whose choices, or refusals, could prove decisive. Fujimori carried an additional liability: 43 percent of respondents said they would not support her under any circumstances, the highest rejection rating of either candidate and a shadow that had followed her political career for years.
The two candidates embodied sharply different futures — Castillo's platform centered on redistribution and resource nationalism, Fujimori's on continuity with Peru's recent political order. With the gap between them smaller than statistical uncertainty and a quarter of voters still unresolved, the final week promised to be as volatile as the one that had just upended every assumption.
One week before Peru's voters would choose their next president, the race had tightened into something too close to call. Pedro Castillo, the leftist candidate from Perú Libre, held 40.3 percent support in the latest polling from the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. Keiko Fujimori, the conservative standard-bearer of Fuerza Popular, stood at 38.3 percent. The gap between them—two percentage points—fell within the survey's margin of error, making it a technical tie.
The shift was dramatic. Just a week earlier, on May 23, Castillo had commanded a commanding lead: 44.8 percent to Fujimori's 34.4 percent. In seven days, he had lost 4.5 points while she had gained nearly 4. The momentum had swung sharply, and with the runoff election days away, the outcome had become genuinely uncertain.
The IEP survey, conducted May 27 and 28 by telephone across 24 departments with 1,227 respondents, captured a country still making up its mind. Nearly one in fourteen voters—6.3 percent—said they had not yet decided which candidate to support. Another 2 percent said they would back neither. More striking still, 13 percent indicated they planned to cast blank or null ballots, effectively withdrawing from the choice altogether. That meant roughly 21 percent of the electorate remained either undecided or actively rejecting both options.
Fujimori carried another burden: she led decisively in what Peruvians call antivoto, the vote against. Forty-three percent of those surveyed said they would not support her under any circumstances. This was the highest rejection rating either candidate faced, a persistent liability that had shadowed her political career for years. Yet Castillo's declining support suggested that some voters who had initially backed him were either wavering or reconsidering.
The numbers told a story of volatility and genuine contestation. Castillo represented a sharp leftward turn—his party's platform included aggressive redistribution and resource nationalism. Fujimori represented continuity with Peru's recent past, though her own family history and legal troubles made her a polarizing figure. With nearly a quarter of voters still undecided or abstaining, and the two leading candidates separated by a margin smaller than the survey's statistical uncertainty, the election remained genuinely open. The final week would determine not just who won, but whether either candidate could consolidate enough support to claim a clear mandate.
Citações Notáveis
The difference between both aspirants represents a technical tie— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
How much did Castillo's support actually drop in real terms?
Four and a half percentage points in a single week. He went from 44.8 to 40.3. That's not noise—that's a real shift in voter sentiment.
And Fujimori gained ground at the same time?
Yes. She moved from 34.4 to 38.3, nearly four points up. So the gap collapsed from over ten points to just two. Within the margin of error.
What does that tell you about the undecided voters?
That they're the story. Twenty-one percent of people either haven't decided or are planning to reject both candidates entirely. In a two-person race, those voters are decisive.
Why would Castillo lose support so quickly?
The source doesn't say. But a ten-point lead evaporating in a week suggests something shifted—maybe doubts about his platform, maybe Fujimori's campaign gained traction, maybe undecided voters started paying closer attention.
And Fujimori's rejection rate—43 percent—that's not a problem?
It's significant. But if Castillo's support is soft and those voters migrate to her, rejection numbers can matter less than momentum. She was moving in the right direction at the right time.
So this was genuinely unpredictable?
Completely. A two-point gap within a 2.8-point margin of error means either candidate could win. The election was wide open.