Canada and the EU can be a stabilizing force when the world is in chaos
Fifty years after establishing formal ties, the European Union and Canada are discovering in each other something rarer than alliance: a shared sense of what the international order should look like, and a shared unease about who threatens it. Accelerated by the unpredictability of Washington under Donald Trump—whose tariff threats, NATO skepticism, and annexationist rhetoric have unsettled both partners—this deepening relationship rests on structural foundations that analysts believe will outlast any single presidency. Two regions that have long orbited the same democratic values are now, with quiet deliberation, choosing to move closer.
- Trump's suggestion that Canada could become the fifty-first American state was a clarifying moment—suddenly, Canadians understood they too could be targets of the same destabilizing rhetoric aimed at allies.
- The urgency is real: both the EU and Canada face simultaneous pressure on trade, defense commitments, and the rules-based international order, creating a rare alignment of grievances and goals.
- Canada is being woven into European defense architecture—becoming the first non-European country allowed to participate in the EU's SAFE defense fund—while cooperating on Ukraine drone production and child repatriation efforts.
- Prime Minister Carney's invitation to the European Political Community summit in Armenia, as the first non-European leader ever to attend, signaled that this is no longer a peripheral partnership but a politically consequential one.
- Speculation about Canadian EU membership—however unrealistic—has entered mainstream European discourse, with polls showing majority support in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain, even as both sides firmly prioritize sovereignty.
Fifty years into their formal relationship, the European Union and Canada are experiencing something that resembles a second honeymoon—though the bond runs deeper than the crisis that accelerated it. Analysts describe the alignment as having two layers: a structural foundation built over decades from shared democratic values, economic interests, and institutional frameworks, and an immediate urgency driven by the unpredictability of Donald Trump's Washington. Tariff threats, NATO criticism, and annexationist rhetoric—including suggestions that Canada itself might become American territory—have reminded both partners how much they have to lose if the postwar international order unravels.
Yet this is not a marriage of pure convenience. Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund argues that structural shifts in global politics, independent of who occupies the White House, are pushing Europe to seek deeper partnerships with like-minded nations. Canada, sometimes called the most European country outside Europe, fits that description precisely—and much of this momentum, Lesser suggests, will persist even if American politics become less turbulent.
The practical cooperation is already substantial. Canada has supported Ukraine economically since the Russian invasion and is now in talks on drone production. Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand joined a Brussels coalition working to repatriate Ukrainian children forcibly relocated to Russia. The two sides are aligned on climate policy, WTO reform, and the defense of negotiation-based international rules. Kallas, the EU's chief diplomat, declared that Canada and the EU could serve as stabilizing forces in a period of global chaos.
The symbolic gestures have been equally striking. Carney was invited as the first non-European leader to attend the European Political Community summit in Armenia, where he declared that the international order would be rebuilt—and rebuilt from Europe. Canada is also becoming the first non-European participant in the EU's SAFE defense fund, and Carney appointed a personal representative to Brussels, with a summit scheduled for autumn.
Even Canadian EU membership has entered the conversation, however speculatively. Polls show majority or plurality support in the five largest EU member states, and some European politicians have floated the idea openly. But analysts and governments on both sides agree it is unrealistic—most Canadians would see deep institutional integration as a surrender of sovereignty, and Ottawa is deliberately diversifying its partnerships across Asia and the Gulf rather than concentrating them. The existing CETA trade agreement, still unratified by roughly a dozen EU member states, remains a quiet friction point. Still, the momentum between these two partners feels durable—rooted in something more lasting than the current American political moment, even if that moment provided the spark.
Fifty years into their formal relationship, the European Union and Canada are experiencing something that looks like a second honeymoon—though the courtship runs deeper than the immediate crisis that sparked it. The two have found themselves bound not just by shared democratic values and economic interests, but by a common vulnerability: the unpredictability of Donald Trump's administration and its willingness to upend the postwar international order that both have long relied upon.
The alignment is real and structural, according to analysts who study the transatlantic relationship. Luis Simón, who directs the Elcano Institute's Brussels office, describes it as having two distinct layers. The first is foundational—a convergence of economic interests, institutional frameworks, and political values that has been building for decades. The second is immediate and urgent: both regions face the same pressures and uncertainties emanating from Washington, whether in the form of tariff threats, criticism of NATO commitments, or Trump's appetite for territorial expansion, including his past suggestions that Canada might become the fifty-first American state. That last comment alone was enough to remind Canadians that they, too, could become targets of annexationist rhetoric.
But this is not a marriage of pure convenience, even if convenience helped accelerate the courtship. The relationship between Europe and what some call the most European country outside Europe has solid foundations that predate the current American political moment. Ian Lesser, who directs the German Marshall Fund's Brussels office, points to structural changes in the world that have nothing to do with who occupies the White House. Europe is opening outward, seeking deeper partnerships with countries that share its values and vision for international order. Canada fits that description precisely. And crucially, Lesser suggests, much of this momentum will likely persist even if American politics shift in a more favorable direction in the coming years.
The practical alignment is striking. On Ukraine, Canada has provided economic support since the Russian invasion began and is now in talks to cooperate on drone production, according to Canadian Defense Minister David McGuinty. Canada's Foreign Minister, Anita Anand, recently participated in Brussels in an international coalition focused on repatriating Ukrainian children forcibly relocated to Russia. The list of shared interests extends across climate policy, international trade rules, and the defense of a rules-based global order. Javier Moreno, a Spanish socialist MEP who chairs the European Parliament's delegation for Canada relations, emphasizes that the two are aligned on environmental issues and on maintaining the World Trade Organization as a functioning system based on negotiation and dialogue rather than unilateral power.
The symbolic gestures have multiplied. Kaja Kallas, the EU's chief diplomat, recently received Anita Anand in Brussels and declared that Canada and the EU could serve as stabilizing forces in foreign policy and trade during a period of global chaos. More significantly, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was invited as a special guest to the European Political Community summit in Armenia in early May—the first non-European leader to receive such an honor. Carney, who gained prominence in Europe for a speech at Davos calling for an alliance of middle powers to defend the international order against what he called Trumpism, used the occasion to declare that the international order would be rebuilt, but it would be rebuilt from Europe. The European Council president, António Costa, called Carney's participation politically significant, a reflection of Europe and Canada's deepening alignment.
Canada is also becoming the first non-European country permitted to participate in the EU's common defense fund, known as SAFE. The two regions signed a strategic alliance agreement a year ago and established a security and defense partnership focused on counterterrorism and cyber threats. Carney subsequently appointed a personal representative to the EU, John Hannaford, signaling Canada's commitment to deepening the transatlantic relationship. The next EU-Canada summit is scheduled for autumn.
There is even talk, however speculative, of Canadian membership in the European Union itself. A recent YouGov poll found that majorities or significant pluralities in the five largest EU member states—France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain—would support Canadian accession. Some European politicians, including French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, have floated the idea. The EU's expansion commissioner, Marta Kos, has even received inquiries from Canadian citizens asking what conditions would need to be met for Canada to become the twenty-eighth EU member state. Brussels officially dismisses this as unrealistic, and analysts on both sides agree. Matthew Levin, a former Canadian ambassador to Spain, notes that most Canadians would view such a move as an unacceptable surrender of sovereignty, and the Canadian government has no interest in deep institutional integration that would undermine its strategy of diversifying its international partnerships.
That diversification remains important to Canada's calculus. Levin points out that Canada is simultaneously working to repair damaged relations with China and India while deepening commercial and investment ties with Gulf states. Yet there is a crucial asymmetry: while Canadian approaches to China and India remain controversial at home, the Canadian public is broadly comfortable with closer ties to Europe. The existing trade agreement between the EU and Canada, known as CETA, has been in place since 2017, though it has not yet been ratified by roughly a dozen European member states—a potential friction point that could complicate further deepening of the relationship. Still, the momentum appears genuine and multidirectional, rooted in something more durable than the current American political crisis, even if that crisis provided the catalyst.
Notable Quotes
The international order will be rebuilt, but it will be rebuilt from Europe— Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking from Armenia
Canada is the most European of all non-European countries in the world, and in the midst of planetary chaos, Canada and the EU can be a stabilizing force in foreign policy and trade— Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Policy
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Canada matter so much to Europe right now, beyond the obvious fact that Trump is making everyone nervous?
Because Canada represents something Europe needs: a stable, wealthy, democratic partner that shares its values but isn't trapped in the same institutional constraints. Europe can't easily pivot away from the United States, but Canada can help it build alternatives that don't depend on American goodwill.
But isn't this just about Trump? Won't it fade when he leaves office?
That's what some people assume, but the analysts I read don't think so. The structural reasons—climate, trade rules, defense cooperation—those exist independent of any one American president. Trump accelerated things, but he didn't create the underlying logic.
What about the idea of Canada joining the EU? That seems wild.
It is wild, and nobody serious thinks it will happen. But the fact that people are even asking the question tells you something about how the relationship has shifted. A few years ago, that would have seemed absurd. Now it's at least a conversation.
What's the risk here? What could go wrong?
The main one is that CETA, their trade agreement, still hasn't been ratified by a dozen European countries. If that becomes a sticking point, it could undermine the whole momentum. Also, Canada needs to balance this with other relationships—China, India, the Gulf states. It can't afford to be seen as choosing Europe over everyone else.
So this is real, but fragile?
More like real but still being tested. The foundation is solid. Whether it becomes something transformative depends on whether both sides keep investing in it when the immediate crisis passes.