85 percent approve, but Bolsonaro's backing goes elsewhere
No coração do Brasil Central, o governador Ronaldo Caiado encerra seu mandato em Goiás sustentado por uma aprovação rara na política contemporânea: 85% dos eleitores do estado reconhecem seu governo com favor, segundo pesquisa do Real Time Big Data. Esse capital político, construído tijolo a tijolo na gestão estadual, agora serve de plataforma para ambições maiores — a presidência da República em 2026. A história, porém, raramente é linear: o apoio que Caiado acumulou em casa não garante o respaldo das forças que movem o tabuleiro nacional.
- Com 85% de aprovação e apenas 12% de rejeição, Caiado ocupa uma posição invejável no cenário político brasileiro, onde índices assim são exceção, não regra.
- A consistência entre aprovação geral e avaliação de qualidade — 67% classificam o governo como ótimo ou bom — indica que o apoio popular tem raízes mais profundas do que simples simpatia pessoal.
- A candidatura presidencial de Caiado para 2026 esbarra no campo magnético bolsonarista, que parece orientar seu endosso para Tarcísio de Freitas ou Michelle Bolsonaro, deixando Caiado à margem da sucessão preferida.
- Em Goiás, a disputa pelo seu legado já começou: o PL lançou o senador Wilder Morais como pré-candidato, enquanto o PT ainda pondera entre Edward Madureira e Adriana Accorsi para enfrentar o próximo ciclo eleitoral.
Uma pesquisa do Real Time Big Data, divulgada na sexta-feira com apoio da CNN Brasil, revelou que 85% dos eleitores goianos aprovam o governo de Ronaldo Caiado — contra apenas 12% de rejeição. Quando perguntados sobre a qualidade da gestão, 67% a classificaram como ótima ou boa, 24% como regular e apenas 8% como ruim ou péssima. A coerência entre os dois indicadores sugere que o apoio não é superficial: quem aprova Caiado, em geral, também acredita que ele governa bem.
Esse acúmulo de capital político serve de trampolim para um projeto maior. Caiado já confirmou a intenção de disputar a presidência em 2026, mas o caminho é estreito. Jair Bolsonaro, figura central da direita brasileira, parece inclinar seu apoio para nomes mais próximos de sua órbita — Tarcísio de Freitas, governador de São Paulo, e Michelle Bolsonaro, presidente nacional do Partido Liberal. Caiado, portanto, precisará construir uma rota própria rumo ao Palácio do Planalto.
Enquanto isso, Goiás já se prepara para a sucessão. O PL apresentou o senador Wilder Morais como pré-candidato ao governo estadual, e o PT delibera entre o vereador goianiense Edward Madureira e a deputada federal Adriana Accorsi. A pesquisa, realizada entre 3 e 4 de novembro com 1.200 eleitores e margem de erro de três pontos percentuais, oferece um retrato confiável de um governante que parte deixando o estado em terreno politicamente fértil — mesmo que o horizonte nacional seja mais incerto.
Ronaldo Caiado's administration in Goiás is running on strong political ground. A survey released Friday by the Real Time Big Data institute found that 85 percent of voters in the state approve of his governance, with only 12 percent expressing disapproval. The remaining 3 percent either didn't know or declined to answer. The poll, which CNN Brasil helped publicize, offers a snapshot of how Caiado's tenure is being received as he prepares for a larger political stage.
When voters were asked to evaluate the quality of his management specifically, the numbers tracked in a similar direction. Two-thirds of respondents—67 percent—rated his government as either excellent or good. Another 24 percent called it adequate, while 8 percent viewed it as poor or very poor. Just 1 percent of those surveyed couldn't or wouldn't offer an assessment. The consistency between the approval and quality ratings suggests the positive sentiment isn't superficial; people who back Caiado also tend to believe he's doing the job well.
Caiado has already signaled his intention to run for the presidency in 2026, a move that would elevate him from state-level politics to national competition. But the path forward is complicated by the gravitational pull of Jair Bolsonaro and his political network. The former president appears unlikely to throw his weight behind Caiado as his preferred successor. Instead, Bolsonaro's endorsement seems destined for politicians closer to his orbit—most notably Tarcísio de Freitas, the governor of São Paulo, or Michelle Bolsonaro, the ex-first lady and current national president of Bolsonaro's Liberal Party.
Back in Goiás, the political machinery is already turning for the next state election. The Liberal Party has already put forward Senator Wilder Morais as a pre-candidate to succeed Caiado. The Workers' Party, meanwhile, is still deliberating between two options: Edward Madureira, a city councilman from Goiânia, or Adriana Accorsi, a federal deputy. The field is taking shape even as Caiado's approval numbers suggest he leaves office with considerable political capital.
The survey itself was conducted between November 3 and 4, with 1,200 voters from across Goiás participating. The margin of error stands at three percentage points in either direction, and the institute applied a 95 percent confidence level to its findings. These are the standard benchmarks for Brazilian political polling, and they suggest the results are reliable enough to guide strategic decisions in the months ahead.
Citas Notables
Caiado has already confirmed his intention to run for the presidency in 2026— Reporting based on Caiado's public statements
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does an 85 percent approval rating matter for a governor who's already leaving office?
Because it's political currency. Caiado isn't just stepping away—he's running for president. These numbers show he can claim a mandate, that voters trusted him. That's leverage in a crowded field.
But Bolsonaro isn't backing him. Doesn't that undercut everything?
It does, actually. Bolsonaro's network is still the dominant force on the right in Brazil. If Caiado runs without that blessing, he's swimming against the current, no matter how popular he is at home.
So the high approval rating is almost a consolation prize?
Not quite. It's proof of concept. It shows he can govern effectively and keep people satisfied. That matters to other politicians, to donors, to voters outside Goiás who are watching. It's not the same as Bolsonaro's endorsement, but it's not nothing.
What about the people who will replace him in Goiás? Do they inherit this goodwill?
That's the real question. Caiado's approval is personal—it's about him. His successor will have to build their own relationship with voters. The Liberal Party's candidate might benefit from association, but they'll also be compared to Caiado. That's a heavy shadow to step into.
And the Workers' Party is still deciding between two candidates?
Yes, which suggests they're not confident either option is a clear winner. They're still testing the waters. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party has already committed to Morais. That's a sign of confidence, or at least clarity about direction.