It's a matter of when, not if, but they have no idea when
Less than two years after leading Labour to a historic parliamentary landslide, Sir Keir Starmer faces a reckoning that British politics has long rehearsed: the gap between winning power and holding public trust. Thursday's local elections across England, Wales, and Scotland have become something larger than their municipal purpose — a mirror held up to a government beset by economic strain, ethical controversy, and the quiet disillusionment of voters who were, perhaps, never truly his to begin with. What is unfolding is not merely a party's misfortune, but a broader human story about the fragility of mandates and the speed with which hope can curdle into protest.
- Labour, which won over 400 parliamentary seats in 2024, now risks losing control of dozens of councils and faces the possible collapse of its grip on the Welsh parliament and Scottish ambitions — all within a single electoral cycle.
- A cascade of grievances has hollowed out public goodwill: a cost-of-living crisis that refuses to relent, policy reversals, ministerial expense scandals, and the lingering toxicity of the Mandelson-Epstein affair that Starmer has been unable to fully escape.
- Reform UK and the Green Party are surging simultaneously from opposite ends of the political spectrum, with Farage's movement projected to seize over 1,000 council seats and the Greens poised to flip Labour strongholds like Hackney, held since the 1970s.
- Though no Labour MP has publicly moved against Starmer, the internal arithmetic is shifting — senior figures privately frame a leadership challenge as a matter of when, not if, with potential rivals like Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham quietly drawing attention.
- Geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East and the absence of an obvious successor are buying Starmer time, but the next general election in 2029 feels, to many observers, like a horizon he may not reach as leader.
On Thursday, thousands of votes will be cast across Britain in what are technically local contests — council seats, mayoral races, parliamentary elections in Wales and Scotland. But in the peculiar mathematics of British politics, these scattered ballots have become a referendum on the national government, and Sir Keir Starmer is bracing for what many believe could be a terminal blow to his leadership.
Less than two years ago, Starmer steered Labour to a landslide victory, winning more than 400 of 650 parliamentary seats. Yet his personal popularity never matched the party's triumph — voters, it turned out, were largely voting against fourteen years of Conservative rule rather than for him. Since then, a cost-of-living crisis, high-profile policy reversals, ministerial expense controversies, and the Mandelson-Epstein scandal have steadily eroded what little goodwill remained. Lord Mandelson, appointed ambassador to the United States in July 2024, was eventually sacked after his links to Jeffrey Epstein became public, but the damage proved durable.
The consequences are expected to be stark. In Hackney, an east London stronghold Labour has held since the 1970s, the party currently controls 50 of 57 council seats — a number polls suggest could fall to around 15, with the Green Party poised to take control. Across England, some 5,000 seats in 136 municipalities are contested. Reform UK is projected to win over 1,000 of them. Labour is expected to lose dozens of councils and its hold on the Welsh parliament, while hopes of reclaiming the Scottish parliament look set to be dashed. As Politico's UK political editor Dan Bloom observed, what is happening is a broader rejection of establishment parties — Labour's vote being chipped away from both right and left at once.
Starmer's government is not in immediate danger of falling; the next general election is not due until 2029. But many experts believe his tenure will not last that long. Labour MPs privately frame a leadership challenge as a matter of when, not if, though no colleague has yet moved publicly against him. Potential rivals, including Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, are being watched. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may delay any move. For now, Starmer's most senior allies continue to support him publicly, and some Labour figures argue he should fight on — but the results expected to emerge over the coming days may make that argument considerably harder to sustain.
On Thursday, thousands of votes will be cast across Britain in what are technically local elections—council seats, mayoral races, parliamentary contests in Wales and Scotland. But in the peculiar mathematics of British politics, these scattered local contests have become a referendum on the national government, and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is bracing for what many analysts believe could be a terminal blow to his leadership.
Less than two years ago, Starmer steered Labour to a landslide general election victory, winning more than 400 of 650 seats in Parliament. Yet his personal popularity never matched the party's triumph. Voters, it turned out, were voting against the Conservative Party's 14-year grip on power as much as they were voting for him. Since then, a cascade of troubles has eroded what little goodwill remained: a cost-of-living crisis that refuses to ease, high-profile policy reversals, questions about ministerial expenses, and a scandal that continues to haunt the government. In July 2024, Starmer appointed Lord Peter Mandelson, a Labour stalwart and former business secretary, as ambassador to the United States. The appointment became toxic when it emerged that Mandelson had links to Jeffrey Epstein, the late financier and convicted sex offender. Mandelson was sacked last year, but the damage has proved durable.
The government insists its policies are designed to stabilize the economy for the long term and points to a significant drop in net migration since taking office. These are arguments that resonate with some voters. But they have not been enough to stem the tide. In Hackney, an east London constituency Labour has controlled since the 1970s, the party currently holds 50 of 57 council seats. Opinion polls suggest that number could plummet to around 15. The Green Party is expected to take control. One resident told the ABC she wanted to send a message to Starmer: she was not happy with what he had been doing. Zoë Garbett, the Green Party's mayoral candidate in Hackney, said voters had told her they felt let down by Labour and were ready to try something different.
Across England, about 5,000 seats in 136 municipalities are up for grabs. If the polls are accurate, the results will be catastrophic for Labour. Reform UK, the right-wing party led by anti-immigration campaigner Nigel Farage, is expected to win well over 1,000 local council seats. The Green Party is predicted to claim around 500. Labour is expected to be swept from power in dozens of councils and to lose its grip on the Welsh parliament. In Scotland, long-held hopes of regaining control of the parliament look set to be dashed. The picture for the Conservatives is scarcely better. What is happening, according to Dan Bloom, the UK political editor at Politico, is a broader rejection of establishment parties. "You're essentially getting this chipping away at Labour's vote from right and left," he said.
Starmer's government is not in immediate danger of falling—the next general election is not due until 2029. But many experts now believe his time as prime minister will not last that long. When asked whether Labour MPs think he will eventually be challenged, Bloom said: "I think if you talk to a lot of MPs they will still say it's a matter of when, not if, but they have absolutely no idea when the when is." No Labour colleague has publicly launched a challenge. His most senior allies continue to support him publicly. Some Labour figures argue he should defy his critics and fight on to the next general election. Labour MP Allison Gardner told Parliament last month that the reasonable majority of people do not want a change of prime minister. But potential rivals are circling. Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is among those being watched. The timing of any leadership change remains uncertain, complicated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could delay a challenge.
The surge of Reform UK and the Greens has not been without friction. Several Reform UK candidates have faced accusations of making racist social media posts, despite Farage's claims that the party has improved its vetting process. Two Green Party candidates in London were arrested last week over allegedly antisemitic social media posts. The treatment of British Jews has become a campaign issue, particularly after a spate of attacks on the community. Starmer convened a Tackling Antisemitism Forum at 10 Downing Street earlier this week. Yet across all these controversies, one concern has remained consistent: the soaring cost of living, which Britons rank as their biggest worry. Voting is not compulsory in the UK. Polls open at 8 a.m. local time on Thursday, and results are expected to emerge over the following days.
Notable Quotes
People feel let down by Labour and can see what the Green Party is offering— Zoë Garbett, Green Party mayoral candidate in Hackney
You're essentially getting this chipping away at Labour's vote from right and left— Dan Bloom, UK political editor at Politico
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why do local elections matter so much when the next general election isn't until 2029?
Because in Britain, local politics and national politics are deeply intertwined. The parties that dominate Westminster tend to dominate the councils too. When voters reject the government in local contests, it's read as a verdict on the prime minister's agenda. It's a test of whether people still believe in him.
Starmer won a landslide just eighteen months ago. What changed so quickly?
He won because people wanted the Conservatives out, not necessarily because they loved him. The data showed he was never personally popular. Then the cost of living stayed high, he reversed some policies, there were expense questions, resignations. And then the Mandelson appointment—that was the scandal that wouldn't die.
Do you think he'll actually be forced out?
Most Labour MPs privately believe it's inevitable. But no one is willing to say it publicly yet, and no one has stepped forward to challenge him. That's the strange part. Everyone thinks he's finished, but no one wants to be the one to finish him.
What does Reform UK's surge tell us about British voters right now?
That they're angry at the establishment from both directions. Reform is taking votes from the right, the Greens from the left. It's not really about Starmer anymore—it's about people losing faith in the old parties entirely.
Is there any chance these predictions are wrong?
Polls can be wrong. But the consistency across multiple samples, the scale of what's being predicted—it would take something extraordinary to reverse it now. The question isn't whether Labour loses. It's how badly.