We had two choices: regretting that we contracted, or regretting that we didn't
Após meses de escassez hídrica que pesaram sobre as contas de luz dos brasileiros, a natureza e a gestão energética encontraram um equilíbrio temporário. O operador nacional do sistema elétrico anunciou em abril de 2022 que a bandeira verde permaneceria vigente até o fim do ano, poupando consumidores de sobretaxas que chegaram a R$14,20 por 100 kWh. É um momento de alívio construído sobre chuvas generosas e reservatórios restaurados — um lembrete de que, num país onde dois terços da eletricidade nascem dos rios, o clima ainda governa a economia.
- A pior seca em 91 anos esvaziou os reservatórios brasileiros em 2021, forçando o acionamento de usinas termelétricas caras e impondo uma bandeira de escassez hídrica que onerou famílias e empresas por meses.
- A sobretaxa de R$14,20 a cada 100 kWh consumidos representou um golpe concreto no orçamento doméstico, somando-se a um cenário já pressionado pela inflação.
- As chuvas do fim de 2021 reverteram o quadro: os reservatórios do Sudeste e Centro-Oeste encerraram a estação chuvosa nos melhores níveis desde 2012, reduzindo a dependência das termoelétricas.
- O diretor-geral da ONS confirmou que a bandeira verde — sem nenhuma cobrança adicional — deve se manter por todo o restante de 2022, devolvendo previsibilidade às contas de luz.
- A energia eólica, já responsável por 9% da geração nacional, aponta para um futuro em que a matriz diversificada reduza a vulnerabilidade do país às secas extremas.
Em meados de abril de 2022, o Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS) trouxe uma notícia bem-vinda aos consumidores brasileiros: a bandeira verde permaneceria em vigor até o fim do ano, sem qualquer sobretaxa nas contas de eletricidade. O diretor-geral Luiz Carlos Ciocchi confirmou a estabilidade dias após o presidente Jair Bolsonaro encerrar oficialmente a bandeira de escassez hídrica, vigente desde setembro de 2021.
Para entender o alívio, é preciso compreender o sistema de bandeiras tarifárias brasileiro. A bandeira verde não acrescenta nada à conta. As bandeiras amarela e vermelha impõem cobranças crescentes por quilowatt-hora. Mas a bandeira de escassez era uma categoria à parte: adicionava R$14,20 a cada 100 kWh consumidos — um peso considerável para famílias e negócios. Ela havia sido criada porque 2021 registrou a pior seca em 91 anos, drenando os reservatórios que abastecem cerca de 65% da eletricidade do país e obrigando o acionamento de usinas termelétricas de custo elevado.
A virada veio com as chuvas do fim de 2021. Os reservatórios do Sudeste e do Centro-Oeste — as regiões mais importantes para a geração de energia — encerraram a estação chuvosa nos melhores níveis desde 2012. Com essa reserva reconstituída, o sistema pôde operar com segurança, dispensando as termoelétricas emergenciais no dia a dia.
Ciocchi defendeu os contratos de capacidade térmica firmados durante a crise, que permanecerão disponíveis como reserva estratégica até dezembro de 2025. 'Tínhamos duas escolhas: lamentar ter contratado ou lamentar não ter contratado', disse ele. Com os reservatórios cheios, a decisão parece acertada.
No horizonte, a matriz energética brasileira dá sinais de diversificação: a energia eólica já representa 9% da geração total. À medida que fontes renováveis ganham espaço, o país se torna menos refém das secas. Por ora, o recado imediato é simples — e bem-vindo: nenhuma cobrança extra na conta de luz até o fim de 2022.
Brazil's grid operator announced in mid-April 2022 that electricity consumers would catch a break. The green tariff flag—which imposes no surcharge on monthly bills—would remain in place through the end of the year, meaning households and businesses could expect their power costs to hold steady without the additional charges that had plagued them for months.
The announcement came from Luiz Carlos Ciocchi, the director-general of the Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico, or ONS, the entity that coordinates and controls electricity generation and transmission across Brazil's interconnected grid. Five days after President Jair Bolsonaro had declared an end to the water scarcity surcharge and activated the green flag on April 16, Ciocchi confirmed the stability would last. "That is the expectation," he said, speaking to reporters about the likelihood that tariffs would remain unchanged for the remainder of 2022.
To understand what this meant for ordinary Brazilians, it helps to know how the country's tariff system works. Brazil uses a flag system that reflects the real cost of generating electricity. When conditions favor hydropower generation, the green flag applies and consumers pay nothing extra. When conditions tighten, the yellow flag adds R$0.01874 per kilowatt-hour. The red flag, split into two tiers, charges R$0.03971 or R$0.09492 per kilowatt-hour depending on severity. But the scarcity flag that had been in effect since September 2021 was different—it tacked on R$14.20 for every 100 kilowatt-hours consumed, a substantial hit to monthly bills.
That emergency measure had been necessary because 2021 brought the driest conditions in 91 years. Brazil's hydroelectric reservoirs, which supply roughly 65 percent of the nation's electricity, had drained dangerously low. The government was forced to activate expensive thermal power plants to fill the gap, driving up costs across the system. The scarcity surcharge was meant to help cover those inflated expenses and discourage consumption during the crisis.
By April 2022, the picture had shifted. Rainfall since late 2021 had restored the reservoirs substantially. Ciocchi noted that the Southeast and Center-West regions—the country's most important power-generating zones—had finished their rainy season at their highest levels since 2012. With that cushion in place, Brazil could move through the rest of the year with far greater security than it had faced in 2021. The need to run expensive thermal plants would diminish, allowing the tariff system to reset to its normal green baseline.
Ciocchi defended the government's decision to contract emergency thermal capacity, which would remain available through December 2025 as a strategic reserve. At the time those contracts were signed, he said, the uncertainty had been profound. "We had two choices: regretting that we contracted, or regretting that we didn't," he observed. The decision to secure that backup power now looked vindicated.
Brazil's energy mix was also beginning to shift in ways that could provide longer-term stability. While hydropower still dominated at 65 percent of generation, wind energy had grown to represent about 9 percent of the total. As renewable sources diversified, the grid would become less vulnerable to the kind of drought-driven crisis that had forced the scarcity surcharge in the first place. For now, though, the immediate relief was clear: consumers would see no additional charges on their electricity bills for the rest of 2022.
Citações Notáveis
That is the expectation— Luiz Carlos Ciocchi, director-general of ONS, on whether tariffs would remain unchanged through year-end
We had two choices: regretting that we contracted, or regretting that we didn't— Ciocchi, defending the government's decision to contract emergency thermal power plants
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why did Brazil need that emergency water scarcity charge in the first place? What made 2021 so different?
The drought was historic—the worst in 91 years. When hydroelectric reservoirs run dry, you can't generate power from water, so you have to fire up thermal plants instead. Those are expensive. The surcharge was essentially the government saying to consumers: we have to pay more to keep the lights on, so you're going to feel that cost.
And now the reservoirs are full again, so they can turn those thermal plants off?
Exactly. The rainfall since late 2021 refilled them to levels not seen since 2012. That means hydropower can do most of the work again, which is much cheaper. So the surcharge becomes unnecessary.
But they're keeping the thermal plants on contract through 2025. Why not just cancel them?
Insurance. The director said it plainly—when they made that decision, they didn't know if the drought would end. They had to choose between two kinds of regret. Now that it's over, they want to keep that capacity available in case it happens again.
So this green flag staying through the end of the year—that's not permanent?
No. The flag system adjusts monthly based on conditions. What Ciocchi was saying is that barring another drought, they don't expect to flip to yellow or red this year. But nothing is guaranteed.
What about wind power? The article mentions it's growing.
It's at about 9 percent now. As Brazil diversifies away from pure hydropower dependence, they become less vulnerable to droughts. But we're not there yet. Hydro is still 65 percent of the mix.