A tug-of-war between weakening data and rate-cut hopes
Em uma terça-feira de espera e cautela, os mercados globais respiram fundo antes de dois dados que podem reorientar expectativas: o PIB brasileiro do primeiro trimestre e as vagas de emprego nos Estados Unidos. A fraqueza industrial americana alimenta apostas em cortes de juros pelo Fed, enquanto o Brasil equilibra estímulo ao crescimento e disciplina fiscal. É o eterno dilema das economias modernas — crescer sem se desequilibrar, afrouxar sem perder a credibilidade.
- Futuros americanos recuam entre 0,55% e 0,61% enquanto investidores aguardam o relatório JOLTS e pedidos de fábrica, após dois meses consecutivos de contração na atividade industrial.
- A probabilidade de corte de juros pelo Fed em setembro saltou de 53% para 59% após os dados de manufatura, criando uma tensão entre deterioração econômica e esperança de alívio monetário.
- Na Europa, bolsas caem de forma generalizada — DAX perde 1,15%, FTSE MIB recua 1,35% — com investidores atentos à reunião do BCE na quinta-feira e à inflação ligeiramente acima do esperado na zona do euro.
- O petróleo atinge mínimas de quatro meses, com WTI a US$ 72,92 e Brent a US$ 77,15, pressionados por preocupações com excesso de oferta no segundo semestre.
- O Brasil aguarda confirmação de crescimento de 0,8% no trimestre e 2,2% no ano, enquanto o Ministério da Fazenda detalha compensações pela desoneração da folha e o avanço da reforma tributária do consumo.
A manhã de terça-feira chegou com cautela nos mercados. Dois dados concentram as atenções: o PIB brasileiro do primeiro trimestre e o relatório americano de vagas de emprego. No fundo, ambos alimentam a mesma pergunta — a economia está fraca o suficiente para justificar cortes de juros, ou ainda firme o suficiente para dispensá-los?
Nos Estados Unidos, os futuros operam em queda. Dow Jones, S&P 500 e Nasdaq recuam entre 0,55% e 0,61%, após uma sessão anterior marcada por volatilidade e até uma falha técnica na Bolsa de Nova York. A manufatura americana contraiu pelo segundo mês seguido, e esse sinal pesou. A probabilidade de que o Fed corte juros em setembro subiu para 59%, ante 53% antes do dado industrial — um reflexo do dilema que o estrategista Keith Lerner resumiu bem: os mercados estão num cabo de guerra entre dados que pioram e a esperança de que o banco central responda a isso.
No Brasil, o consenso aponta para crescimento de 0,8% no trimestre e 2,2% no acumulado anual. Mas a movimentação mais intensa é fiscal e política. O Ministério da Fazenda apresenta, em dois momentos distintos, as compensações pela desoneração da folha de pagamento para dezessete setores e municípios pequenos, e os detalhes do segundo projeto complementar da reforma tributária sobre o consumo. O ministro Fernando Haddad e o secretário Bernard Appy lideram os anúncios — um esforço para mostrar que é possível estimular a economia sem abrir mão do equilíbrio fiscal.
Na Ásia, o saldo foi misto: Xangai e Hong Kong subiram levemente, impulsionadas por apostas numa estabilização gradual do mercado imobiliário chinês, enquanto Japão, Coreia do Sul e Austrália fecharam no vermelho. Na Europa, o recuo foi uniforme, com os investidores de olho na reunião do BCE na quinta-feira — onde um primeiro corte de juros desde 2019 é amplamente esperado, mas a inflação ligeiramente acima do previsto na zona do euro pode complicar o cenário.
Nas commodities, o petróleo estendeu as perdas para mínimas de quatro meses, com preocupações sobre oferta crescente pesando sobre os preços. No front corporativo brasileiro, Marisa aprovou aumento de capital e Cosan emitiu debêntures de R$ 1,45 bilhão. No Senado, avançam votações sobre o programa Mover e o imposto de 20% sobre compras internacionais abaixo de US$ 50 — a chamada 'taxa da blusinhas'. O dia promete ser um teste de resistência para mercados que esperam, mas ainda não sabem o que vão encontrar.
Tuesday morning in the markets, and the mood is cautious. Investors are waiting for two pieces of news that could reshape expectations: Brazil's first-quarter economic growth figures and a fresh reading on American job openings. The numbers matter because they sit at the center of a larger tension—weak industrial data is pushing traders to bet on interest rate cuts, but the economy hasn't collapsed yet, and nobody quite knows which story will win.
In the United States, futures are trading lower across the board. The Dow Jones futures fell 0.55 percent, the S&P 500 futures dropped 0.60 percent, and the Nasdaq futures slid 0.61 percent. The decline comes ahead of two April releases scheduled for 11 a.m.: the JOLTS report on job openings and factory orders. The previous day had been volatile. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed higher despite a turbulent session, but the Dow Jones lost ground. A technical glitch at the New York Stock Exchange had briefly interrupted trading in several stocks, adding to the jittery feel. The real story underneath was industrial weakness. American manufacturing activity had slowed for a second consecutive month, and that slowdown is now coloring how traders think about the economy's trajectory. Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Service, captured the standoff plainly: there is a kind of tug-of-war between markets seeing deteriorating data and the possibility that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in response. The betting markets have shifted. Traders now see a 59 percent probability that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September, up from about 53 percent before the manufacturing report came out.
Brazil's economic picture is coming into focus on Tuesday morning as well. The consensus forecast is that gross domestic product grew 0.8 percent from the previous quarter and 2.2 percent over the past year. Those numbers will set the tone for how investors view the country's growth momentum. But the real action in Brazil is political and fiscal. The Finance Ministry is unveiling two separate announcements: first, at 10 a.m., details on how the government will offset the cost of reducing payroll taxes for seventeen economic sectors and municipalities with populations under 156,000 people. Then, at 12:30 p.m., Finance Minister Dario Durigan, along with Bernard Appy, the extraordinary secretary for tax reform, and other officials, will hold a technical press conference to explain the second complementary bill that will implement the consumption tax reform. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is scheduled to give an interview at the same time. These announcements matter because Brazil is trying to balance two competing pressures: the need to stimulate growth through lower labor costs and the need to maintain fiscal discipline.
Across Asia, markets closed without a clear direction. Shanghai gained 0.41 percent, buoyed by real estate stocks as investors bet that a gradual stabilization in Chinese property sales over the next two quarters could restore household confidence and spending. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.22 percent. But Japan's Nikkei fell 0.22 percent, South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.76 percent, and Australia's ASX 200 declined 0.31 percent. In Europe, the picture was uniformly weak. The FTSE 100 in London fell 0.63 percent, Germany's DAX slid 1.15 percent, France's CAC 40 dropped 0.87 percent, and Italy's FTSE MIB lost 1.35 percent. The broader STOXX 600 index fell 0.80 percent. The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2019 when policymakers meet on Thursday, but investors are watching to see whether slightly higher-than-expected eurozone inflation reported on Friday will change the bank's calculus.
Commodity markets are under pressure. Oil prices extended losses from the previous session, when they had fallen to their lowest level in four months. Traders are worried about rising supply later in the year. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.75 percent to $72.92 a barrel, and Brent crude dropped 1.54 percent to $77.15 a barrel. Iron ore traded on the Dalian exchange fell 2.11 percent to 834 yuan, or about $115.15. Bitcoin declined 0.64 percent to $68,654.50 over the past twenty-four hours.
On the corporate front, two Brazilian companies made moves. Marisa shareholders approved an increase in the company's capital structure, allowing the share count to rise to 1.45 billion ordinary shares. Cosan approved the issuance of bonds worth 1.45 billion reais. Meanwhile, the Senate is preparing to vote on two pieces of legislation: the Green Mobility Program, known as Mover, and a 20 percent tax on international purchases under $50—a measure that has been nicknamed the "little blouse tax" because it was designed to capture online clothing purchases. The day ahead will test whether markets can hold steady while waiting for the employment data, or whether the combination of weak industrial signals and fiscal uncertainty will push traders toward the exits.
Notable Quotes
There is a kind of tug-of-war between markets seeing deteriorating data and the possibility that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in response.— Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer, Truist Advisory Service
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a single jobs report in America matter so much to Brazilian investors?
Because the Fed's next move ripples everywhere. If American employment is weak, the Fed cuts rates sooner, the dollar weakens, and emerging markets like Brazil become more attractive. If employment is strong, the opposite happens.
So Brazil's tax reform announcement is competing for attention with American jobs data?
Not competing—it's the same conversation. Brazil is trying to stimulate growth by cutting payroll taxes, but it needs to show it can offset that cost. Investors want to know: is this growth real, or is it just fiscal smoke?
The manufacturing slowdown in the US—is that a warning sign?
It's a yellow light. Two months of slowdown isn't a recession, but it's enough to make traders think the Fed might have to step in. That's why the rate-cut odds jumped from 53 to 59 percent.
What about Europe? Why are markets there falling harder than in the US?
Europe is caught between two fears. The ECB is about to cut rates for the first time in years, but inflation came in hotter than expected. Markets don't know if the bank will stay the course or pause. That uncertainty sells off.
Is oil's decline connected to the same slowdown story?
Partly. Weak manufacturing means weaker demand. But there's also supply anxiety—traders think more oil is coming later in the year, so they're selling now.
What happens if Brazil's GDP number comes in below 0.8 percent?
Then the tax reform becomes even more urgent, and the government's credibility takes a hit. The market will start asking whether Brazil can actually grow without just printing money.