A market that can't quite believe in its own rally
S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all closed positive on diplomatic hopes, with oil prices falling and Treasury yields easing amid Iran peace talk optimism. Nvidia surpassed profit and revenue expectations with record $81.62B quarterly revenue, but fell 1.77% due to lower-than-expected forward guidance.
- S&P 500 closed +0.17% at 7,445.72; Nasdaq +0.09% at 26,293.10; Dow +0.55% at 50,285.66
- Nvidia revenue surged 85% to record $81.62 billion but stock fell 1.77% due to weak forward guidance
- State Secretary Rubio cited 'good signs' in Iran peace talks; Pakistani mediators scheduled for Tehran
- Iran refuses to abandon enriched uranium stockpiles and seeks formalized control of Strait of Hormuz
US State Secretary's optimistic remarks on Iran negotiations lifted US stock markets despite Nvidia's mixed earnings, with geopolitical relief outweighing tech sector concerns.
Wall Street opened Thursday's session in the red, but by closing time the major indices had swung decisively into positive territory. The S&P 500 finished up 0.17% to 7,445.72 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.09% to 26,293.10 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55% to 50,285.66 points. The turnaround came not from corporate earnings but from a single statement: U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio told reporters he was seeing "some good signs" in peace negotiations with Iran.
The market's appetite for risk had been fragile all week. Early trading had been hammered by inflation concerns that sent investors scrambling to bet the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates elevated for longer than hoped. But Rubio's remarks about diplomatic progress shifted the entire calculus. Oil prices fell on the prospect of reduced geopolitical tension. Treasury yields eased. The Nasdaq, which had been particularly vulnerable to rate-sensitive trades, found its footing.
Rubio added substance to the optimism by noting that Pakistani mediators were scheduled to travel to Tehran on Thursday to continue talks. Iran, according to reports from the country's news agencies, was reviewing the latest American proposal—one that sources suggested had narrowed some of the gaps between the two sides. For investors exhausted by months of Middle East uncertainty, the signal was clear enough: a diplomatic off-ramp might actually exist.
Yet the enthusiasm masked a more complicated reality. Iran had made clear it would not surrender its stockpiles of enriched uranium. More provocatively, Tehran was reportedly negotiating with Oman over a permanent toll system that would formalize Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz—a direct challenge to Washington's long-standing demand for free passage through one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. The gap between "good signs" and actual agreement remained vast.
Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, delivered earnings that should have dominated the conversation. The semiconductor giant's revenue surged 85% to a record $81.62 billion, and the company beat profit expectations. Yet the stock fell 1.77% to $219.51. The reason was simple: forward guidance disappointed. Investors had priced in even more growth, and Nvidia couldn't quite deliver the certainty they demanded. The company's stumble illustrated a broader market dynamic—even dominant performers couldn't overcome the weight of geopolitical uncertainty.
Dave Mazza, chief executive of Roundhill Financial, captured the tension in a comment to Bloomberg. Nvidia's results had given Asian markets a lift, he said, but that momentum evaporated quickly. The Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved. Thirty-year Treasury bonds were firmly above 5%, making it harder for investors to justify chasing a rally that had already climbed steeply. The market had found a reason to move higher, but the foundation beneath that move remained unstable. Peace talks and corporate earnings were now competing for the same investors' attention, and geopolitical risk was winning.
Citas Notables
The results gave Asian markets a lift, but that momentum evaporated quickly because the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved and investors are struggling to justify a rally that has already climbed so steeply.— Dave Mazza, chief executive of Roundhill Financial
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did Nvidia's earnings miss matter so much when the company actually beat expectations?
Because the market had already priced in even bigger numbers. Nvidia delivered what was asked of it, but not what investors had come to expect. In a market this uncertain, that gap is everything.
So the Iran negotiations were the real story of the day?
They were the permission slip investors needed. Oil prices falling, Treasury yields easing—those are real economic effects. But yes, it was the diplomatic signal that flipped the switch from red to green.
But you said Iran is still demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz. How is that a "good sign"?
It's not, really. It's a good sign that talks are happening at all. But the actual positions haven't moved much. What changed is the market's mood, not the underlying conflict.
What happens if negotiations collapse?
Then you're back where you started—oil uncertainty, geopolitical premium on risk, and a market that can't quite believe in its own rally. Nvidia's miss becomes the story again.
Is this rally sustainable?
Only if the talks produce something real. Right now it's built on hope and a temporary easing of tension. That's fragile.