The way forward is not to tear up the Constitution, but to go to the ballot.
En Bolivia, un mes de bloqueos de carreteras ha dejado a La Paz y El Alto aisladas del resto del país, mientras la economía se contrae y el diálogo permanece ausente. Ante la renuncia del presidente Rodrigo Paz como única demanda de los manifestantes, surge una propuesta constitucional: adelantar el referéndum revocatorio a un plazo de 90 a 120 días, ofreciendo a la democracia la oportunidad de arbitrar lo que la presión de las calles no ha podido resolver. Es el eterno dilema de las sociedades en crisis: si la legitimidad se construye en las urnas o se conquista en los caminos bloqueados.
- Desde el 6 de mayo, los bloqueos han estrangulado el suministro de alimentos, combustible y comercio en las principales ciudades bolivianas, con dos intentos fallidos de las fuerzas de seguridad para despejar las rutas.
- Los manifestantes exigen la renuncia inmediata del presidente Paz, y los leales a Morales rechazan cualquier salida que no sea su salida del poder, convirtiendo cada propuesta de diálogo en un nuevo frente de conflicto.
- El diputado Carlos Alarcón propone un referéndum revocatorio extraordinario en 90 a 120 días como vía constitucional, con el respaldo de figuras opositoras como Andrónico Rodríguez, quien advierte que es necesario para evitar mayor violencia y colapso económico.
- El gobierno evalúa un estado de excepción 'sectorizado' como último recurso, mientras la propuesta del referéndum gana terreno como alternativa menos disruptiva ante la ausencia de cualquier otro acuerdo.
- Bolivia se acerca a un punto de quiebre: si ninguna de las partes acepta el resultado de un eventual voto, el referéndum podría convertirse en otra arena de disputa en lugar de una salida real a la crisis.
Bolivia lleva un mes al borde del colapso. Desde el 6 de mayo, los bloqueos de carreteras han aislado La Paz y El Alto, extendido sus tentáculos a otras regiones y resistido dos intentos fallidos de desalojo por parte de policías y militares. Los manifestantes exigen una sola cosa: la renuncia del presidente Rodrigo Paz. El gobierno no cede. La economía sangra en silencio.
En ese vacío ha emergido una propuesta: adelantar el referéndum revocatorio. El diputado Carlos Alarcón, de la coalición Unidad, plantea celebrarlo en un plazo de 90 a 120 días, amparándose en la Constitución boliviana, que permite este mecanismo una vez que el mandatario supera la mitad de su período. Paz ya lo ha hecho. La herramienta existe. 'El camino no es romper la Constitución y la democracia, sino ir a las urnas', argumentó Alarcón, aclarando que habla a título personal y no como posición oficial de su partido.
La propuesta ha encontrado eco. Andrónico Rodríguez, legislador que se distanció del ala de Evo Morales, la respaldó como una forma de frenar la escalada de violencia y evitar un mayor deterioro económico. La lógica es simple: si Paz gana el referéndum, gobierno y oposición negociarían una agenda mínima de reformas; si pierde, habría nuevas elecciones en meses.
Pero los leales a Morales no aceptan ninguna variante que no sea la salida inmediata del presidente. Para ellos, el referéndum es una maniobra dilatoria, no una solución democrática. Los bloqueos continúan. Los efectos económicos ya se sienten más allá de las fronteras, afectando el comercio con Perú.
Lo que Bolivia no sabe aún es si alguna de las partes está dispuesta a aceptar el veredicto de las urnas. De esa disposición —o de su ausencia— depende si el país encuentra una salida constitucional o si la crisis sigue profundizándose hasta que alguien ceda por agotamiento.
Bolivia is running out of time. For a month, since May 6th, roadblocks have choked off La Paz and El Alto from the rest of the country. Protesters demanding President Rodrigo Paz's resignation have expanded their blockades across other regions, and two attempts by police and military to clear the roads have failed. The economy is bleeding. There is no dialogue. There is only the question of what happens next.
Into this vacuum has stepped an idea: hold a recall referendum early. Not in five years, when the constitution normally allows it, but in the next 90 to 120 days. The proposal comes from Deputy Carlos Alarcón, a member of the Unidad coalition, who frames it as a constitutional way out—a path that respects democratic process rather than breaking it. "The mobilized sectors want elections," Alarcón said, "and the way forward is not to tear up the Constitution and democracy, but to go to the ballot."
The government has considered other options. A "sectoralized" state of exception—a partial emergency declaration—has been floated as a possibility, though officials insist it remains their last resort. But as the blockades persist and the economic damage spreads, the recall referendum has begun to gain traction as a more palatable alternative. The Bolivian Constitution does permit recall votes once elected officials reach the midpoint of their five-year terms. Paz is past that mark. The mechanism exists.
Alarcón's proposal is personal, he emphasized, not an official party position. But it has found support. Andrónico Rodríguez, a former presidential candidate and legislator who broke with Evo Morales's faction, endorsed the idea as a way to "prevent greater escalation of violence and avoid deepening the economic crisis." The logic is straightforward: let voters decide, quickly, whether Paz should stay or go. If he wins the referendum, the government and opposition could then negotiate a basic legislative agenda to reform Bolivia's political and economic systems. If he loses, new elections would follow within months.
But the Morales loyalists will have none of it. They have rejected the referendum proposal outright, insisting that Paz's resignation—not a vote, not a negotiation, but his departure—is the only acceptable resolution. For them, the blockades continue until he leaves. The constitutional path that Alarcón describes as a democratic solution looks to them like a delay tactic, a way to keep Paz in power when the streets have already rendered their verdict.
What remains unclear is whether the early referendum can actually break the deadlock or whether it will simply become another contested proposal in a country that has run out of shared ground. The blockades have isolated major cities and rippled across borders, affecting trade as far south as Peru. The longer this stretches, the more the economy contracts, and the more pressure builds on whoever holds power to act. Whether that pressure breaks toward a vote or toward capitulation may depend on whether either side believes the other will accept the result.
Citações Notáveis
The mobilized sectors want elections, and the way forward is not to tear up the Constitution and democracy, but to go to the ballot.— Deputy Carlos Alarcón
An early recall referendum is an option to prevent greater escalation of violence and avoid deepening the economic crisis.— Andrónico Rodríguez, former presidential candidate
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why would Paz's supporters think a recall referendum could actually resolve this? Isn't it just kicking the can down the road?
It's not nothing. The constitution allows it, so it's not a power grab. And if you're Paz or his allies, a referendum gives you a chance to claim legitimacy—to say the people chose you, not just that you're holding on. But you're right that it assumes both sides will accept the outcome.
And they won't?
The Morales bloc has already said no. For them, the streets have already spoken. A referendum feels like it's asking the people to un-speak themselves, to vote on something that's already been decided by blockade.
So what's the actual endgame here? Does Paz resign, or does someone force him out?
That's the question no one can answer yet. The military and police have tried twice to clear the roads and failed. The government won't declare a full emergency. So you're stuck in this middle ground where nothing moves and everything breaks.
How long can that last?
Not long. The economy is already hemorrhaging. Trade is disrupted across borders. At some point, the pressure becomes unbearable—either Paz goes, or the government escalates, or somehow both sides agree to a vote. But right now, they're not even in the same conversation.
And if the referendum happens and Paz wins?
Then theoretically you've bought time to negotiate reforms. But you've also confirmed that half the country wants him gone and he's still there. That's not a solution. That's a postponement with a deadline.