The real collision between supply and demand unfolds over months, not in a single day.
A cada quatro anos, o Bitcoin passa por um ritual inscrito em seu próprio código: a redução à metade da taxa de emissão de novas moedas, um mecanismo que limita a oferta total a 21 milhões de unidades e confere à criptomoeda uma escassez programada. Na sexta-feira, às vésperas do quarto halving da história do ativo, o Bitcoin recuperou 5,3% e chegou a $64.925, depois de uma semana marcada por perdas e tensões geopolíticas no Oriente Médio. O mercado observava o evento com a consciência de que a história raramente se repete da mesma forma — e que entre a antecipação e a realidade, os preços costumam contar histórias imprevisíveis.
- O Bitcoin acumulava queda de 8,3% na semana, pressionado por ataques entre Israel e Irã que abalaram mercados globais e aumentaram a aversão ao risco.
- Na manhã do halving, uma recuperação de 5,3% devolveu o ativo ao patamar de $64.925, sinalizando que parte dos investidores apostava na valorização antes do evento.
- O halving em si — previsto para as 21h de Brasília — cortaria pela metade a recompensa dos mineradores, reduzindo o ritmo de criação de novos Bitcoins e apertando gradualmente a oferta.
- Analistas alertavam para volatilidade intensa ao longo do dia, com especuladores posicionados tanto para uma alta quanto para uma realização de lucros após o evento.
- O mercado permanecia dividido: enquanto alguns esperavam o clássico 'compra no boato, vende no fato', outros argumentavam que as perdas recentes já haviam absorvido boa parte do pessimismo.
Na manhã de sexta-feira, o Bitcoin avançou 5,3% e chegou a $64.925, mesmo após uma semana difícil em que acumulou perdas de 8,3%. O pano de fundo era tenso: na noite anterior, Israel havia lançado mísseis contra o Irã em resposta a um ataque iraniano da semana passada, sacudindo os mercados globais. A notícia de que as instalações nucleares iranianas permaneciam intactas aliviou parte do pânico, mas a ansiedade não desapareceu.
O evento que dominava a atenção dos traders era o quarto halving do Bitcoin, previsto para as 21h no horário de Brasília. Gravado no código original da criptomoeda, o halving reduz pela metade a taxa de emissão de novos Bitcoins a cada quatro anos aproximadamente — um mecanismo que garante que o total em circulação nunca ultrapasse 21 milhões de unidades. Hoje, existem 19,6 milhões de Bitcoins no mundo, e o limite máximo só será atingido por volta de 2140.
Analistas como Beto Fernandes, da Foxbit, lembravam que o verdadeiro impacto do halving sobre a relação entre oferta e demanda se manifesta ao longo de meses, não em um único dia. Ainda assim, o evento atrai especuladores e amplifica a volatilidade de curto prazo. Stefan von Haenisch, da OSL SG, alertou que as tensões no Oriente Médio poderiam manter uma atmosfera de risco sobre as criptomoedas, embora avaliasse que seria necessária uma queda expressiva para desfazer o otimismo acumulado em torno do halving.
Enquanto isso, outros ativos digitais se moviam em direções distintas: Solana subia 9,6%, Ethereum e BNB Chain também registravam ganhos, e tokens menores como Toncoin e dogwifhat disparavam mais de 18%. Nas bolsas americanas, os futuros operavam em queda moderada, refletindo um humor cauteloso. O dia prometia turbulência — e ninguém sabia, ainda, de que lado o Bitcoin terminaria quando o halving finalmente chegasse.
Bitcoin climbed back into positive territory on Friday morning, gaining 5.3 percent to reach $64,925, even as the cryptocurrency market braced for one of its most significant scheduled events: the fourth halving in the asset's history. The update was set to arrive around 9 p.m. Brasília time, a moment traders and miners had been watching for weeks.
The halving is not a surprise or a glitch. It is written into Bitcoin's foundational code, a deliberate mechanism designed to control how new coins enter circulation. Every four years or so, the rate at which miners can create fresh Bitcoin drops by half. This time, the emission rate would be cut in half again, a feature that helps ensure the total supply never exceeds 21 million coins—a hard cap that, at the current pace, will not be reached until 2140. Right now, 19.6 million Bitcoin exist in the world.
The rebound on halving day came after a rough week. Bitcoin had shed 8.3 percent over the previous seven days, hammered partly by geopolitical shocks. On Thursday night, Israel launched missiles at Iran in response to an Iranian attack from the week before, sending tremors through global markets. The news that Iran's nuclear facilities remained intact helped ease some of the panic, but the underlying anxiety lingered. Traders were nervous, and that nervousness had rippled into crypto markets.
Analysts cautioned that Friday would likely bring wild swings. The halving itself does not instantly reshape supply and demand—that pressure builds gradually over months as fewer coins are minted against potentially growing interest. But the event itself tends to attract speculators and traders betting on what comes next. Beto Fernandes, an analyst at Foxbit, noted that the real collision between supply and demand would unfold over the medium term, not in a single day. The immediate aftermath, though, could be chaotic.
The market was genuinely split on what would happen once the halving actually occurred. Some traders believed in the old adage: buy on the rumor, sell on the fact. They expected Bitcoin to fall once the event was complete, the anticipation spent. Others thought the recent losses had already priced in much of the downside, and that geopolitical tensions might keep the asset under pressure regardless. Stefan von Haenisch, head of trading at OSL SG, told Bloomberg that ongoing Israel-Iran violence could create a general sense of risk around cryptocurrencies, though he suggested it would take a significant move downward to undo all the optimism surrounding the halving itself.
Other digital assets were moving in different directions that morning. Solana surged 9.6 percent in 24 hours, while Ethereum and BNB Chain both posted gains. Among smaller cryptocurrencies, Toncoin and dogwifhat led the gainers with jumps above 18 percent. On the other side, several tokens fell, including Zebec Protocol, which dropped 12.8 percent.
On Wall Street, the mood was cautious. U.S. stock futures were trading lower—the Dow Jones futures down 0.31 percent, the S&P 500 futures off 0.35 percent, and the Nasdaq futures down 0.58 percent. The broader market seemed to be waiting, watching, uncertain whether the day ahead would bring relief or fresh turbulence. For Bitcoin and the traders holding it, the halving was hours away, and no one yet knew which way the price would move when it arrived.
Citas Notables
The expected collision between supply and demand from the halving does not happen immediately, but builds from growing demand against shrinking supply over the medium term.— Beto Fernandes, analyst at Foxbit
Ongoing violence between Israel and Iran could create a general sense of risk around cryptocurrencies, though a significant downward move would be needed to undo the optimism surrounding the halving.— Stefan von Haenisch, head of trading at OSL SG
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the halving matter so much if it doesn't change supply and demand immediately?
Because it signals a shift that's coming. Fewer coins will be created going forward, which means scarcity increases over time. Traders are betting on what that scarcity will mean for price, and that bet starts today, even if the real effect unfolds over months.
So the market is pricing in something that hasn't happened yet?
Exactly. That's why you get the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" dynamic. Some people think the price has already jumped in anticipation, and once the halving actually occurs, there's nothing left to be excited about.
But others disagree?
Right. They point out that Bitcoin has already fallen 8 percent this week because of the geopolitical mess with Iran and Israel. So maybe the bad news is already baked in, and the halving could actually be a relief.
Which side is right?
No one knows. That's what makes today so volatile. You've got traders on both sides, each convinced their logic is sound, and they're all trying to move first.
What about the other cryptocurrencies? Why is Solana up so much?
Solana tends to move independently of Bitcoin sometimes. It's got its own ecosystem, its own investors. Today it's just outperforming, but that can flip quickly.
So what should someone watching this actually pay attention to?
Watch the price action in the hours after the halving actually occurs. If it holds above $64,000 or climbs higher, that's a signal the market is comfortable with the new reality. If it drops sharply, the "sell the fact" crowd was right. But honestly, the real story won't be clear for weeks.