Cryptocurrencies will likely remain under pressure as the Fed tightens
En los primeros días de 2022, Bitcoin cruzó un umbral simbólico al caer por debajo de los $40,000 por primera vez desde agosto, reflejando algo más profundo que una simple corrección de precio: el fin de una era de dinero fácil. La Reserva Federal, que durante la pandemia sostuvo los mercados con liquidez abundante, comienza a retirar esa marea, y los activos más especulativos —criptomonedas entre ellos— son los primeros en quedar expuestos. En este momento de transición monetaria, el debate no es solo sobre el precio del Bitcoin, sino sobre qué tipo de valor perdura cuando la abundancia artificial se retira.
- Bitcoin tocó $39,712 el lunes, su nivel más bajo desde agosto, acumulando una caída de casi 12% en apenas diez días desde el cierre del año.
- La señal de alarma no viene del mercado cripto en sí, sino de Washington: la Reserva Federal anuncia el fin de la política monetaria laxa que infló activos de riesgo durante dos años de pandemia.
- Jay Hatfield, de Infrastructure Capital Advisors, advierte que Bitcoin podría desplomarse por debajo de $20,000 antes de que termine 2022, argumentando que los activos más volátiles sufren el doble cuando los inversores reducen su tolerancia al riesgo.
- Frente al pesimismo, Mike McGlone de Bloomberg Intelligence defiende que $40,000 es un soporte técnico clave y que la digitalización de la economía global sigue siendo un viento de cola estructural para las criptomonedas.
- El mercado se encuentra en una encrucijada: la presión inmediata del ajuste monetario es real, pero la narrativa de largo plazo sobre el valor de las monedas digitales no ha sido refutada, solo puesta a prueba.
El lunes, Bitcoin cayó por debajo de los $40,000 por primera vez desde principios de agosto, tocando un mínimo de $39,712 antes de recuperarse levemente hasta rondar los $40,760. La caída supera el 4.5% en una sola jornada y acumula una pérdida de aproximadamente 11.8% desde el cierre del año, cuando el activo cotizaba cerca de $48,000.
El contexto explica mucho. La Reserva Federal ha comenzado a telegrafiar el fin de la política monetaria expansiva que sostuvo los mercados durante la pandemia. Para activos como las criptomonedas —especialmente sensibles a los cambios en la oferta de dinero— ese giro representa una presión directa e inmediata.
Jay Hatfield, director ejecutivo de Infrastructure Capital Advisors, no se anduvo con rodeos: las criptomonedas seguirán bajo presión mientras la Fed apriete las condiciones financieras. Su pronóstico es severo: Bitcoin podría cerrar 2022 por debajo de $20,000. Su argumento es estructural: cuando la Fed endurece su política, reduce la prima de riesgo que los inversores están dispuestos a aceptar, y los activos más volátiles —tecnológicas sin ganancias, acciones meme, criptomonedas— sufren de forma desproporcionada, con una volatilidad que duplica la del mercado general.
Sin embargo, no todos comparten ese pesimismo. Mike McGlone, de Bloomberg Intelligence, señala que $40,000 ha funcionado históricamente como un piso técnico relevante, y que el papel creciente de Bitcoin en la digitalización de la economía global ofrece razones para el optimismo a largo plazo.
La distancia entre ambas visiones resume la tensión central del momento: el viento en contra es real y el ajuste monetario continuará, pero la tesis de fondo sobre el valor de las monedas digitales permanece intacta. Lo que ocurra en las próximas semanas dependerá, en gran medida, de la velocidad con que la Fed actúe y de si Bitcoin logra sostenerse sobre sus niveles de soporte clave.
Bitcoin dropped below $40,000 on Monday for the first time since early August, a milestone that signals deepening pressure on the world's largest cryptocurrency. The digital asset fell more than 4.5 percent, bottoming out at $39,712 before recovering slightly to trade around $40,760 by afternoon, according to Coindesk data. The move marks a sharp reversal from where bitcoin stood just ten days earlier: on December 31st, the asset was trading near $48,000. Year-to-date, bitcoin has lost roughly 11.8 percent of its value.
The timing of the decline is no accident. Investors and analysts are increasingly focused on the Federal Reserve's shift away from the loose monetary policy that has buoyed risk assets for much of the pandemic era. As the Fed signals its intention to reduce liquidity injections into financial markets, cryptocurrencies—among the most sensitive assets to changes in money supply—are feeling the strain first and hardest.
Jay Hatfield, chief executive of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, offered a blunt assessment to Bloomberg: cryptocurrencies will likely remain under pressure as the Fed tightens its grip on liquidity. He went further, predicting that bitcoin could end 2022 trading below $20,000, a level that would represent a collapse of more than half from current prices. Hatfield's reasoning cuts to the heart of how monetary policy affects different asset classes. When the Fed tightens policy, it doesn't just raise interest rates—it also reduces the risk premium investors are willing to accept across all markets. The effect is not uniform. Unprofitable technology stocks, meme stocks, and cryptocurrencies are roughly twice as volatile as the broader market, meaning they carry double the risk premium of an average stock. When that premium contracts, these assets suffer disproportionately.
Not everyone shares Hatfield's bearish outlook. Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence takes a more measured view, arguing that the $40,000 level represents an important technical support point—a floor where buyers have historically stepped in. McGlone also points to bitcoin's expanding role in the ongoing digitalization of the global economy as a reason to expect continued growth over the longer term. His perspective suggests that while near-term volatility is likely, the structural case for cryptocurrency adoption remains intact.
The gap between these two views captures the essential tension in crypto markets right now. The immediate headwind is real: the Fed is tightening, and that tightening will continue to pressure speculative assets. But the longer-term narrative—that digital currencies and blockchain technology represent a genuine shift in how economies function—has not disappeared. What happens in the weeks and months ahead will likely depend on how quickly the Fed moves and whether bitcoin can hold above key support levels while the broader market adjusts to a new regime of monetary restraint.
Citações Notáveis
Cryptocurrencies will likely remain under pressure as the Fed reduces its liquidity injections, and bitcoin could end 2022 below $20,000.— Jay Hatfield, Infrastructure Capital Advisors
The $40,000 level represents important technical support, and bitcoin's role in economic digitalization supports long-term growth.— Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does the Federal Reserve's policy matter so much to bitcoin specifically? It's not like the Fed controls cryptocurrency.
The Fed doesn't control bitcoin directly, but it controls the money supply and interest rates. When the Fed is loose with liquidity, investors have cheap money and are willing to take bigger risks on volatile assets. Bitcoin thrives in that environment. When the Fed tightens, it pulls money out of the system and raises the cost of borrowing, which makes investors more cautious.
So bitcoin is just a proxy for risk appetite?
It's more than that, but yes—in the short term, bitcoin moves with how much risk investors are willing to take. The analyst I mentioned said crypto is twice as volatile as the market, so it gets hit twice as hard when sentiment shifts. But some people argue that's temporary. The real story is whether bitcoin becomes part of the actual economy.
And does it? Is it actually being used?
That's the disagreement. One analyst thinks bitcoin could fall below $20,000 this year because of Fed tightening. Another thinks $40,000 is a floor because bitcoin's role in digitalization is real. They're both looking at the same facts but drawing different conclusions about what matters more—the immediate pressure or the long-term trend.
Which one is right?
We won't know for months. But the fact that bitcoin fell below $40,000 for the first time since August tells you the immediate pressure is real right now. The question is whether it's temporary or the start of something worse.