Fear has reached an extreme. When fear gets that extreme, it often marks a turning point.
In the long arc of speculative markets, fear and loss have often been the quiet precursors to renewal. Bitcoin, having shed significant value and settled near $60,000, now finds more than half its circulating supply held at a loss — a threshold that, in prior cycles, marked the exhaustion of sellers and the stirring of recovery. Analyst Ali Martinez has drawn attention to this historical pattern, though the larger circulating supply today introduces genuine uncertainty about whether the bottom has truly arrived or merely approached.
- Bitcoin's sharp decline has left over 10.46 million coins — more than half of all circulating supply — held at a loss, creating a landscape of widespread investor pain.
- The Supply in Loss metric has crossed a threshold that historically preceded major rallies in 2018 and 2022, triggering cautious optimism among on-chain analysts.
- Selling pressure may be easing not from renewed confidence, but from a simple unwillingness among holders to crystallize losses at the worst possible moment.
- A critical complication looms: today's larger circulating supply means this metric could climb even higher, leaving room for Bitcoin to fall further before any confirmed bottom forms.
- Bitcoin was trading near $62,746 at time of writing — a 2.5% daily gain that could signal early recovery or merely a pause within a deeper downtrend.
Bitcoin has found what appears to be a temporary floor near $60,000 after days of sharp decline, but the deeper question is whether this represents a genuine market bottom or a brief pause before further losses. On-chain data is beginning to offer a tentative answer.
On June 7th, analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the Supply in Loss metric — a measure of how many Bitcoin in circulation last changed hands at a price higher than today's. When this figure reaches extreme levels, it historically signals that fear has peaked and selling pressure is beginning to exhaust itself. The logic is straightforward: as more holders sit on unrealized losses, fewer are willing to sell and lock in that pain, reducing downward pressure on price.
Martinez identified a significant milestone: 10.46 million BTC, representing more than half of all circulating supply, are now held at a loss. This matches the levels seen before major rallies in late 2018 and again in 2022 — both times, Bitcoin turned sharply upward within weeks of crossing this threshold.
However, the comparison carries an important caveat. Bitcoin's total circulating supply is meaningfully larger today than it was during those prior cycles, meaning the same raw number of coins in loss may reflect a lesser degree of systemic stress. There is room for the metric to climb further, which could indicate deeper price declines before a true bottom solidifies. The historical pattern is encouraging, but the context has quietly shifted beneath it.
Bitcoin has spent the last several days in sharp decline, but the price has found what looks like a stable floor around $60,000. The real question is whether this floor will hold, or whether the cryptocurrency is simply pausing before another leg down. On-chain data—the kind of information that lives in the blockchain itself—is starting to whisper that a bottom may be forming.
On June 7th, cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez posted an observation on X that caught attention. He was looking at something called the Supply in Loss metric, a measure that counts how much Bitcoin in circulation last moved at a price higher than where it trades today. In other words, it's a way of measuring how much pain Bitcoin holders are sitting on. When this number reaches extreme levels, it often signals that fear has peaked and a reversal is near.
The metric works like this: if you bought Bitcoin at $70,000 and it's now trading at $62,000, your coins are "in loss." The Supply in Loss metric adds up all the coins held by people in that situation. It's a proxy for investor suffering. When the number gets very high, it means a lot of people are underwater. Historically, that's when selling pressure tends to ease—not because people suddenly feel better, but because fewer investors are willing to lock in losses at the worst possible moment.
Martinez noted that Bitcoin has crossed a significant threshold: 10.46 million coins are now held at a loss, representing more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation. This number matters because it matches the levels that preceded major rallies in late 2018 and again in 2022. Both times, when the Supply in Loss metric hit around 10 million coins, Bitcoin's price turned sharply upward within weeks. "I think this is an important signal," Martinez explained, "because selling pressure usually decreases as fewer investors are willing to realize losses, which increases the probability that a market bottom is forming."
But there's a complication worth taking seriously. The total amount of Bitcoin in circulation is higher now than it was in either 2018 or 2022. Back then, roughly 17.4 million and 19.2 million coins were in circulation, respectively. Today, the circulating supply is larger. That means the current 10.46 million coins in loss, while historically significant, might not represent the same degree of market stress. In 2015, for example, the Supply in Loss metric never even reached the 10 million threshold before Bitcoin rallied—partly because the total supply was so much smaller that the percentage of coins underwater was less extreme.
This distinction matters. A higher circulating supply could mean that the Supply in Loss metric has room to climb further, which would suggest Bitcoin could fall deeper before any genuine bottom takes hold. The historical pattern is encouraging, but the context has shifted. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $62,746, up 2.5 percent over the previous day. Whether that represents the beginning of a sustained recovery or simply a bounce within a larger downtrend remains to be seen.
Citações Notáveis
Selling pressure usually decreases as fewer investors are willing to realize losses, which increases the probability that a market bottom is forming.— Ali Martinez, cryptocurrency analyst
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does the Supply in Loss metric matter more than just looking at the price chart itself?
Because price can bounce for a lot of reasons—short covering, algorithmic trading, news. The Supply in Loss metric tells you something about the actual holders. When that many people are sitting on losses, it changes the psychology of the market. Fewer people are willing to sell at a loss, so the selling pressure naturally decreases.
So a high Supply in Loss is actually a bullish sign?
It can be, historically. It's a sign that fear has reached an extreme. When fear gets that extreme, it often marks a turning point. But the key word is "can." It's not a guarantee.
What's the catch with the higher circulating supply now?
The catch is that the same absolute number of coins in loss might represent a smaller percentage of the total supply. If there are more coins overall, then 10.46 million coins in loss might not mean the same level of systemic stress as it did in 2018. The metric could still have room to climb.
So Bitcoin could fall further?
It's possible. The historical pattern is encouraging, but the math is different this time. You can't just overlay 2018 onto 2026 and expect the same result.
What would actually confirm a bottom?
Time, mostly. If the price holds here and starts climbing, and the Supply in Loss metric starts declining as people move back into profit, then you'd have confirmation. But that takes weeks, not days.