the buying zone we all wanted
Bitcoin fell 14% in a week to approach $60,000 support level, with market participants divided on whether further weakness looms. Standard Chartered identifies three stabilizing factors: potential corporate buyback activity, $50B+ net inflows to spot ETFs since January 2024, and $1.5B in leveraged position liquidations reducing cascade risk.
- Bitcoin fell 14% in seven days to approach $60,000 support level
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $50 billion in net inflows since January 2024
- $1.5 billion in leveraged long positions liquidated during recent decline
- MicroStrategy sold 32 bitcoins last week; previously rebought after December 2022 sale
- Bitcoin NFT market posted 10 consecutive days of losses
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick argues Bitcoin is approaching a market bottom despite recent 14% decline toward $60,000, citing liquidation completion and institutional resilience signals.
Bitcoin has spent the past week under siege. The price fell roughly 14 percent in seven days, sliding back toward the $60,000 mark—a level that traders watch the way sailors watch a reef. Break below it, the worry goes, and the selling could accelerate into something uglier. The market is fractured: some see a buying opportunity; others see a trap door waiting to open.
Geoff Kendrick, who runs digital asset research for Standard Chartered, is in the first camp. He believes the worst of the liquidation has already happened, and that Bitcoin is approaching something resembling solid ground. His argument rests on three observable patterns in the market's behavior.
The first involves MicroStrategy, the company that holds one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries. Kendrick points to December 2022, when MicroStrategy sold some holdings, then bought them back days later. Last week, the company sold 32 bitcoins. Kendrick suspects it will do the same thing again—buy back in soon. If that happens, it would send a signal that current prices look reasonable to someone who knows the asset well. The second pattern is in the spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States. These funds have seen roughly $5 billion flow out over the past three weeks, which sounds ominous until you consider the full picture. Since launching in January 2024, the eleven spot ETFs have accumulated more than $50 billion in net inflows, and their holdings have barely budged. For Kendrick, this suggests institutional investors are not panicking; they are holding for the long term.
The third pattern is in the derivatives markets. During the recent decline, traders liquidated about $1.5 billion in leveraged long positions. This matters because it clears out the most fragile bets—the ones that blow up in a cascade when prices move sharply. With that excess leverage gone, the market becomes more stable. It can breathe.
There is a fourth signal, one Kendrick did not explicitly mention but which reinforces his case: Bitcoin's NFT market has posted ten consecutive days of losses. Volume is shrinking. User activity is falling. This is what happens when risk appetite cools. NFTs are the most speculative corner of the crypto world, so they tend to weaken first. When they do, it often means the fever is breaking—the market is purging its excesses. That can actually be healthy.
Kendrick also points to a technical marker: Bitcoin is trading near its 200-week simple moving average, a line that has historically acted as a floor during bear markets. In previous cycles, the price found its footing around this level before beginning to climb again. He is explicit about his conviction. "When we look back at the end of 2026 with Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $4,000, we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted," he said.
But Standard Chartered is careful not to claim certainty. Bitcoin remains volatile. ETF flows can shift. Institutional appetite can vanish. Macro conditions can change overnight. The bank's thesis depends on a sequence of events: MicroStrategy buying again, the ETFs holding steady, leverage continuing to unwind. If all three happen, the odds of a market bottom improve. But if the $60,000 level breaks decisively, the door opens to something worse. For now, the market is split between those who see opportunity and those who see danger. The next few days will tell which group is right.
Citações Notáveis
When we look back at the end of 2026 with Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $4,000, we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted.— Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does it matter whether MicroStrategy buys Bitcoin again in the next few days?
Because they are not a retail trader. They are a major corporation with a stated strategy around Bitcoin. If they see current prices as attractive enough to buy, it signals that the decline has reached a level where serious money thinks it makes sense to accumulate. It is a vote of confidence from someone with skin in the game.
And the ETF inflows—why is $50 billion in cumulative inflows reassuring when $5 billion just flowed out?
Scale and intent. The outflows are recent and reactive, probably panic or rebalancing. But the $50 billion came in over eighteen months, which suggests a deliberate institutional build. Those investors are not day traders. They bought Bitcoin as a long-term holding. They are not selling now.
What does the liquidation of $1.5 billion in leveraged positions actually do to the market?
It removes the most unstable players. When you have traders using leverage, a small price move can force them to sell, which causes a bigger price move, which forces more selling. It is a cascade. Once those positions are gone, you have a market made up of people who can afford to hold through volatility. It is more resilient.
The Bitcoin NFT market is collapsing. Doesn't that suggest broader weakness?
It can, but it can also mean the opposite. NFTs are where the most reckless speculation lives. When they weaken first, it often means the market is shedding its excesses—the bets that should never have been made. That is actually a sign of healing, not terminal illness.
So Kendrick is saying the bottom is in?
He is saying the conditions suggest we are close. He is not saying it is certain. He is saying if three things happen—corporate buying, ETF stability, and continued leverage unwinding—then the odds shift in favor of a floor. But he acknowledges that breaking below $60,000 changes the story entirely.
What happens if it does break?
Then you get the cascade he is trying to avoid. More selling, more forced liquidations, more panic. The market would have to find support somewhere lower, and there is no guarantee where that would be.