Cycles rarely bottom on the first major decline—there's almost always a retest.
Every four years, Bitcoin moves through a cycle that mirrors something older than markets — the rhythm of accumulation, euphoria, correction, and renewal. Veteran analyst Bob Loukas now places Bitcoin in the final chapter of its current cycle, warning that the asset's recent retest of February lows is not a floor but a familiar waypoint on a longer road. History, he argues, almost never grants a clean bottom on the first attempt, and the months ahead — likely October through December — may hold the true reckoning before a new chapter can begin.
- Bitcoin has fallen roughly 51 percent from its cycle peak and may still have further to fall, with analyst Bob Loukas identifying $53,000 as the critical threshold that would signal a full cycle capitulation.
- A relief rally to $83,000 drew in hopeful buyers before reversing sharply, a pattern Loukas reads not as failure but as the market following its own well-worn script.
- Loukas broke a three-and-a-half-year cash position to buy Bitcoin at $65,000 — not as a declaration that the bottom is in, but as a calculated entry into a long-term structure he believes is nearing resolution.
- The cycle clock is ticking: Bitcoin is now at month 43, approaching the historical average bottom window of months 47 to 48, pointing toward an October-to-December reckoning.
- A short-term bounce toward $73,000 is expected, but Loukas cautions that any move above May's $83,000–$85,000 highs would only make sense if an entirely new cycle has already quietly begun.
Bob Loukas, a veteran cryptocurrency analyst, believes Bitcoin has entered the final phase of its four-year market cycle — but warns the bottom is likely not yet behind us. Writing in early June, he described Bitcoin's retest of February lows as historically normal, not alarming. The asset peaked in October, then fell below its 10-month moving average, signaling the end of the prior cycle's advance. A relief rally followed, stalling near $83,000 before reversing roughly 25 percent back toward February's lows.
Loukas is clear on one point: cycles almost never bottom on the first major decline. Only about 5 percent of the time does that happen. There is almost always a retest, and usually at least one lower low. Despite this caution, he has begun repositioning — ending a three-and-a-half-year cash hold by purchasing 10 Bitcoin at $65,000, bringing his model portfolio to roughly 58 percent Bitcoin. He framed this not as a bottom call, but as a strategic entry at more favorable levels. His true signal for full deployment remains $53,000, a level corresponding to the midpoint of the four-year cycle structure.
A drop to $53,000 would represent a 57 percent decline from the cycle peak — significant, but not extreme by Bitcoin's historical standards. The 2021–2022 cycle saw a 77 percent peak-to-trough collapse. Loukas does acknowledge a more optimistic scenario — a double bottom forming now, with a base building through late summer and a push above May's highs — but assigns it only about a 25 percent probability.
His base case points to a cycle low forming around October or November, with December also possible. Bitcoin is currently at month 43 of its cycle, entering the broad window where four-year lows have historically appeared around months 47 to 48. In the near term, he expects an oversold bounce toward the 10-week moving average near $73,000, before the decline resumes. The pattern, he emphasizes, is not new — it is simply the cycle doing what cycles do.
Bob Loukas, a veteran cryptocurrency analyst, has been tracking Bitcoin's position within its four-year market cycle and believes the asset has now entered its final phase. But he's cautioning that the bottom may not yet be in sight. In an analysis published on June 4th, Loukas described Bitcoin's recent retest of February lows as a historically normal development rather than a break from established cycle patterns.
Bitcoin peaked in October, then fell below its 10-month moving average—a signal Loukas interprets as confirmation that the previous cycle's advance had ended. The February decline was followed by a relief rally that drew in bullish traders hoping for a quick return to previous highs. That bounce stalled near $83,000, close to where Loukas had anticipated resistance, before Bitcoin reversed and fell roughly 25 percent back toward February's lows. Loukas notes that cycles rarely, perhaps only 5 percent of the time, bottom on the first major decline. There is almost always a retest, and usually at least one lower low.
Despite his view that Bitcoin may not have yet found its cycle floor, Loukas has begun repositioning his model portfolio. After holding cash for three and a half years, he added 10 Bitcoin at $65,000, bringing his allocation to roughly 58 percent Bitcoin and 41 percent cash. He emphasized this was not a signal that the bottom was already in, but rather a strategic entry at more favorable long-term levels. The critical threshold now, he says, is $53,000. If Bitcoin reaches that zone, his model would deploy remaining cash to return to a full Bitcoin allocation. That level matters because it corresponds roughly to the midpoint of the broader four-year cycle structure.
A move to $53,000 would represent approximately a 57 percent decline from the cycle peak. While that sounds severe, Loukas argues it is not extreme by Bitcoin's historical standards. The asset has already fallen roughly $20,000 in just two or three weeks prior to his analysis. Past bear markets have produced far steeper declines—the 2021-2022 cycle saw a 77 percent peak-to-trough drop, compared to the current decline of around 51 to 52 percent. A fall of 65 to 70 percent, he said, should not be surprising given Bitcoin's volatility history.
Loukas did consider a more bullish scenario. The current retest creates the first credible possibility of a shorter four-year cycle bottom, potentially forming a double bottom before a base toward late summer and a subsequent push above May's highs. He assigned that outcome a relatively low probability of around 25 percent. His base case remains that Bitcoin's cycle low should form closer to the traditional window around October or November, with December also possible. Bitcoin is now at month 43 of its cycle, entering the broad zone where four-year lows typically appear around the 47 to 48 month average.
In the near term, Loukas expects Bitcoin is oversold enough to bounce, possibly toward the 10-week moving average around $73,000, before resuming its decline. He also argued that Bitcoin should not trade above May's highs of $83,000 to $85,000 for several months unless a new cycle has already begun. The window for the cycle bottom is opening, and the four-year pattern is approaching its traditional endpoint—but as Loukas emphasized, this mirrors what has happened before.
Notable Quotes
Cycles rarely, perhaps only 5 percent of the time, bottom on the first major decline. There is almost always a retest, and usually at least one lower low.— Bob Loukas
At $53,000, we are marking the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.— Bob Loukas
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Loukas think Bitcoin needs to go lower when it's already fallen so far from the peak?
Because the pattern he's observed across multiple cycles shows that first major declines almost never mark the actual bottom. There's usually a retest of those lows, and often a lower low after that. It's the market shaking out the last believers.
So when he says $53,000 is the midpoint of the cycle, what does that actually mean for timing?
It's not about time, it's about structure. The four-year cycle has a mathematical shape to it. The midpoint isn't when things happen—it's where they happen. If Bitcoin reaches that level, it would be consistent with where previous cycle bottoms formed relative to the overall cycle span.
He's buying now at $65,000 but saying it could go to $53,000. Isn't that contradictory?
Not really. He's starting to accumulate at levels he considers attractive long-term, but he's explicitly not calling a bottom. He's keeping 41 percent in cash specifically so he can buy more if it falls further. It's staged entry, not capitulation.
What's the significance of him waiting three and a half years to make his first purchase?
It shows how patient he's being about cycle timing. He held cash through the entire previous advance because he was waiting for the cycle to mature and show signs of topping. Now that it has, he's willing to start buying again, but only in tranches.
If Bitcoin bounces to $73,000, does that mean the bottom is in?
No. He expects that bounce as a technical oversold condition, but he sees it as a trap for bulls. The broader trend should resume downward unless something has fundamentally changed about where we are in the cycle.
What would convince him the cycle bottom is already done?
Bitcoin would need to trade above the May highs of $83,000 to $85,000. If it does that without a new cycle having started, it breaks the pattern he's been tracking. But he thinks that's unlikely for several months.