I'm used to asset classes where they make products
En una conferencia de TechCrunch, Bill Gates articuló con franqueza lo que muchos inversores comienzan a sentir en carne propia: que los criptoactivos y los NFT no representan valor creado, sino valor imaginado, sostenido únicamente por la esperanza de que otro pague más mañana. Sus palabras llegan en un momento en que el mercado cripto se desmorona bajo el peso de sus propias promesas, recordándonos que la confianza colectiva, sin fundamento productivo, es un edificio construido sobre aire. La historia de las manías financieras es larga, y Gates sugiere que esta no será la excepción.
- Bitcoin ha perdido dos tercios de su valor desde su máximo histórico de 69.000 dólares en noviembre de 2021, cayendo por debajo de los 23.000 dólares en cuestión de meses.
- Coinbase, uno de los mayores exchanges de criptomonedas del mundo, anunció el despido del 18% de su plantilla, señal de que el colapso va mucho más allá de los gráficos de precios.
- Gates no solo advierte sobre el riesgo: desmonta la lógica entera del mercado cripto, argumentando que sin producción real detrás, el valor es pura ilusión colectiva.
- Su escepticismo, que ya expresó en 2021 cuando Musk y Tesla apostaron por bitcoin, se ha endurecido a medida que las promesas de los evangelistas cripto se desvanecen sin cumplirse.
- La caída sostenida y las voces institucionales como la de Gates podrían erosionar la confianza de los inversores convencionales que aún dudan si entrar o salir del mercado.
Bill Gates se presentó esta semana en una conferencia de TechCrunch con un mensaje sin rodeos: las criptomonedas y los NFT están construidos sobre la teoría del «mayor tonto», es decir, la idea de que el beneficio no proviene de poseer algo con valor real, sino de convencer a la siguiente persona de pagar más. Señaló directamente a los Bored Apes —las costosas imágenes digitales de monos que se convirtieron en símbolo de estatus cripto— con un sarcasmo apenas disimulado.
Gates explicó su visión del valor de forma sencilla: una granja produce alimentos, una empresa fabrica bienes. Con las criptomonedas y los NFT, en cambio, no hay nada debajo. Ninguna producción, ningún output tangible, solo el acuerdo colectivo de que algo vale lo que alguien está dispuesto a pagar.
Sus palabras llegan en un momento especialmente turbulento. Bitcoin tocó los 69.000 dólares en noviembre de 2021 y esta semana cotizaba por debajo de los 23.000, con una caída adicional del 25% solo desde el viernes anterior. Coinbase, uno de los mayores exchanges del mundo, anunció el despido del 18% de su fuerza laboral.
No es la primera vez que Gates adopta esta postura. En 2021 ya advirtió que los inversores ordinarios no deberían dejarse arrastrar por la euforia colectiva, incluso si Elon Musk o Tesla apostaban por bitcoin. Ahora, con el mercado en caída libre y las promesas cripto sin materializarse, esa convicción parece haberse afianzado definitivamente.
Bill Gates walked into a TechCrunch conference this week and said what a growing number of people have been thinking: cryptocurrencies and NFTs are built on nothing but the hope that someone else will pay more for them tomorrow than you paid today.
The Microsoft cofounder was blunt. Digital assets, he said, are "100% based on greater fool theory"—the investment principle that profit comes not from owning something of real value, but from convincing the next person to buy it at a higher price. He singled out Bored Apes, the expensive digital monkey images that became a status symbol among crypto enthusiasts, and suggested with barely concealed mockery that they would "improve the world immensely."
Gates prefers the old way of thinking about money. A farm produces food. A company manufactures goods. You can see the value being created. With crypto and NFTs, he said, there is nothing underneath—no production, no output, just the collective agreement that these things are worth something. "I'm used to asset classes like a farm where they have production, or a company where they make products," he explained.
His skepticism arrives at a moment when the entire crypto market is collapsing. Bitcoin hit a peak of $69,000 in November 2021. By this week, it had fallen below $23,000—a loss of roughly two-thirds of its value. Just since Friday, it had dropped another 25%. The damage extends beyond price charts. Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, announced it would lay off 18% of its workforce as the digital currency market continues to deteriorate.
Gates is not new to this position. In 2021, he told Bloomberg that even though Elon Musk and Tesla had invested in bitcoin, that did not mean ordinary investors should follow. "I think people get caught up in these manias, and maybe they don't have that much money to spare," he said then. "So I'm not optimistic on bitcoin." His latest comments suggest that conviction has only hardened as the market has imploded and the promises made by crypto evangelists have failed to materialize.
Citas Notables
I'm used to asset classes like a farm where they have production, or a company where they make products— Bill Gates
I think people get caught up in these manias, and maybe they don't have that much money to spare. So I'm not optimistic on bitcoin— Bill Gates, 2021
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
When Gates says these assets are based on "greater fool theory," is he describing how crypto works, or how he thinks people use it?
Both, really. The theory itself is the mechanism—there's no underlying value being created, so the only way to profit is if someone pays more than you did. Gates is saying that's not just how some people use crypto, it's all crypto is.
But couldn't you say the same thing about art, or collectibles, or even stocks sometimes?
You could make that argument, and people do. But Gates's point is different. A stock represents a claim on a company's future earnings. A farm produces crops. Even art has aesthetic value independent of resale price. With an NFT of a monkey image, Gates is asking: what is the underlying thing of value here?
So his real objection is that crypto has no productive capacity.
Exactly. He's not saying people can't make money on it. He's saying the money comes from belief, not from anything real being built or grown or made.
Does his skepticism matter? He's one voice.
He's Bill Gates. When someone with that kind of credibility and wealth says publicly that crypto is a scam, it affects how other people think about it—especially people with money to invest who are already nervous about losing it.
And the timing—with Bitcoin down two-thirds and Coinbase firing people—that makes his words land differently.
It does. He's not contrarian anymore. He's describing what's actually happening.