The votes sat locked inside machines, waiting to be translated into seats
On the morning of May 4, Assam began the quiet arithmetic of democratic reckoning, as forty counting centers across thirty-five districts unsealed the machines holding seven hundred twenty-two candidates' fates. Exit polls had already drawn their conclusions — a third consecutive BJP-led victory, something the party had never before achieved in this northeastern state — yet the opposition held to the possibility that numbers do not always capture what people feel but do not say. What was being counted was not merely votes, but the question of whether a decade of governance had earned continuity, and whether the mandate itself had been freely given.
- Exit polls across seven agencies project the BJP-led NDA winning between 68 and 101 of 126 seats, making a historic third consecutive term appear all but certain before a single machine has opened.
- Congress refuses to concede the narrative, invoking 'silent voters' and a shifting public mood that exit polls cannot capture — a last act of faith against the weight of projected mathematics.
- Beneath the electoral contest runs a deeper controversy: the opposition accuses Chief Minister Sarma of using polarizing rhetoric and administrative power to shape the electorate itself, raising questions about whether the mandate is genuine or engineered.
- Security has been visibly tightened at counting centers from Guwahati's Maniram Dewan Trade Centre to Jorhat, as party agents arrived before dawn to witness the translation of locked votes into seats and ministries.
- For Himanta Biswa Sarma, the count is personal — a third term would mark him as one of the BJP's most consequential regional leaders — while for Assam, the question is whether the next five years will simply extend the last ten.
Assam woke on May 4 to the unsealing of electronic voting machines across forty counting centers in thirty-five districts. By eight in the morning, the state would learn whether the BJP had achieved something unprecedented in its time governing this northeastern state: three consecutive election victories. Seven hundred twenty-two candidates had competed for one hundred twenty-six assembly seats, and the votes now waited inside machines to be translated into seats, ministries, and five more years of governance.
Exit polls had already delivered their verdict with unusual unanimity. Seven polling agencies projected the NDA alliance winning between sixty-eight and one hundred one seats, while the Congress-led opposition was expected to take between fifteen and thirty-nine. BJP state president Dilip Saikia went further, claiming the party alone would win more than eighty of its ninety contested seats. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, speaking through a candidate from Dispur, expressed certainty that voters had mandated continuity — and his own return to office.
The opposition refused to surrender the story. Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi invoked 'silent voters' whose true preferences might not appear in exit polls but could surface in the count itself. It was the language of hope set against the weight of projection. Yet the election had not been fought on neutral ground: Sarma's remarks targeting 'Miyas' and accusations of administrative manipulation during electoral roll revision had cast a shadow over the process, raising questions about whether the mandate being counted was freely given.
On the eve of counting, both parties had retreated into strategy sessions — the BJP reviewing readiness with candidates, Congress projecting confidence while dismissing the exit polls. Union ministers from Delhi had already declared an unprecedented NDA victory, speaking before the machines had opened. What remained was the count itself, and the narrower question of whether the opposition's faith in hidden support would amount to anything more than a smaller defeat — and whether, for Assam, something beneath the surface had shifted that the polls had failed to see.
Assam woke on May 4 to the sound of electronic voting machines being unsealed across forty counting centers scattered through thirty-five districts. By eight in the morning, the state would know whether the BJP had secured something it had never achieved before in its time governing this northeastern state: three consecutive election victories.
The machinery of democracy was running at full throttle. Seven hundred twenty-two candidates had competed for one hundred twenty-six assembly seats. Party agents arrived at strong rooms before dawn—at the Maniram Dewan Trade Centre in Guwahati, at the Jorhat counting center where security had been visibly tightened, at dozens of other locations where the actual arithmetic of power would be performed. The votes cast over the preceding weeks now sat locked inside machines, waiting to be translated into seats, ministries, and the next five years of governance.
Exit polls had already spoken, and they spoke in one voice. Across seven different polling agencies, the numbers ranged from sixty-eight to one hundred one seats for the NDA alliance. The Congress-led opposition, by contrast, was projected to win between fifteen and thirty-nine seats. The smaller parties would barely register. These projections were not whispers—they were the loudest signal the pre-election period could send. The BJP state president, Dilip Saikia, had gone further, claiming the party alone would win more than eighty of the ninety seats it had contested, with the full alliance potentially approaching the hundred-seat mark. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, speaking through a BJP candidate from Dispur, expressed certainty that voters had given an overwhelming mandate for continuity, for his own return to office.
The opposition had not conceded the narrative, even as the numbers stacked against them. Gaurav Gogoi, the Congress leader in Assam, invoked the existence of "silent voters"—those who might not show up in exit polls but could shift the outcome when actual ballots were counted. He argued that public mood had shifted toward the opposition, that the people's true sentiment would emerge only when the machines opened. It was the language of hope deployed against mathematics, of faith against projection.
But the election had not been fought on neutral ground. Himanta Biswa Sarma's remarks about "polarisation" and his targeting of "Miyas"—a term with loaded historical meaning in Assam—had triggered a political row. The opposition accused the BJP of voter suppression during the electoral roll revision process, of using administrative machinery to shape the electorate itself. These were not minor complaints; they went to the question of whether the election had been free and fair, whether the mandate being counted was genuine or engineered.
On the eve of counting, both parties had retreated from public campaigning. The BJP held virtual strategy reviews with candidates and state leaders, assessing their readiness. Congress did the same, projecting confidence while rejecting the exit polls as unreliable. Union ministers from Delhi—Piyush Goyal, Arjun Ram Meghwal—had already declared victory, speaking of an "unprecedented" NDA win not just in Assam but across multiple states going to polls. They were not waiting for the machines to speak; they were speaking for them.
What remained was the counting itself. Eight in the morning would come, and the machines would open. The question was not whether the BJP would win—the exit polls had settled that with near-unanimity—but by how much, and whether the opposition's claims of hidden support would materialize into anything more than a smaller defeat. For Himanta Biswa Sarma, the stakes were personal: a third term would cement his position as one of the BJP's most successful regional leaders. For Assam, the question was whether the next five years would look like the last ten, or whether something had shifted beneath the surface that the exit polls had missed.
Notable Quotes
The counting of votes is going to start very soon now. You can feel it throughout Assam that people have voted overwhelmingly for the BJP and BJP-led NDA.— Pradyut Bordoloi, BJP candidate from Dispur
Silent voters and an underlying shift in public mood could favour the Opposition when votes are counted.— Gaurav Gogoi, Assam Congress leader
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a third consecutive victory matter so much to the BJP in Assam?
Because it would be unprecedented for them in this state. Two wins in a row is one thing—it shows you've consolidated power. Three in a row means you've become the natural governing party, the default choice. That's a different kind of mandate.
But the exit polls are already saying they'll win. Why does the opposition bother claiming silent voters?
Because exit polls can be wrong, and because they need to preserve their credibility for the actual result. If they concede now and lose badly, they look weak. If they hold the line and lose anyway, they can say the polls were rigged. It's about narrative control.
What's the significance of Himanta Biswa Sarma's comments about polarization and "Miyas"?
It suggests the election was fought partly on communal lines. The opposition is saying he used administrative power to reshape the voter rolls in ways that favored the BJP. That's not just a campaign tactic—that's an allegation about the integrity of the process itself.
If the exit polls are this consistent, what could actually surprise us when counting happens?
A much larger Congress performance than projected, or a significant swing toward smaller parties. But honestly, the consistency across seven different agencies makes that unlikely. The real surprise would be if the opposition's "silent voters" theory actually holds water.
What happens to Himanta Biswa Sarma if the BJP underperforms the exit polls?
He'd still likely be chief minister if the NDA crosses sixty-three seats. But his personal standing would take a hit. The narrative would shift from "historic hat-trick" to "weaker than expected." In Indian politics, that matters for his future prospects.
Is there any chance the Congress actually wins?
The exit polls would have to be dramatically wrong across the board. Not impossible, but the consistency of the projections makes it very unlikely. Congress is probably fighting for relevance at this point, not for power.