The bank has not yet reached peak profitability, but the upside may be limited.
Banco do Brasil encerrou o primeiro trimestre de 2024 com lucro líquido ajustado de R$9,3 bilhões, superando as expectativas do mercado pelo terceiro trimestre consecutivo e reafirmando a resiliência do setor bancário brasileiro. O banco distribuiu R$2,6 bilhões em dividendos e JCP, consolidando sua reputação como um dos ativos de renda mais generosos da bolsa. Ainda assim, por trás dos números sólidos, emergem sinais de tensão no crédito rural — o motor que mais impulsionou o crescimento — lembrando que toda colheita abundante carrega em si a semente da próxima tempestade.
- O lucro de R$9,3 bilhões superou o consenso dos analistas em 1,8%, mas ficou 1,5% abaixo do recorde histórico do trimestre anterior, criando uma vitória que exige leitura cuidadosa.
- A distribuição de R$2,6 bilhões em dividendos e JCP — quase metade do lucro trimestral — acendeu o interesse de investidores em busca de renda, destacando o BB no cenário bancário nacional.
- A inadimplência no segmento agro saltou de 0,59% para 1,19% em um ano, atingindo o nível mais alto desde setembro de 2020 e sinalizando que o principal motor de crescimento do banco começa a mostrar desgaste.
- As enchentes no Rio Grande do Sul, ocorridas em maio, adicionam uma camada de incerteza ao portfólio agrícola, tornando o segundo semestre de 2024 um horizonte carregado de riscos ainda não precificados.
- Analistas permanecem cautelosamente otimistas com as ações do BB, mas o BTG Pactual migrou sua preferência para o Itaú, reconhecendo que o potencial de valorização do banco estatal já não é o mesmo de um ano atrás.
O Banco do Brasil abriu 2024 com resultado que confirmou sua consistência: lucro ajustado de R$9,3 bilhões no primeiro trimestre, 1,8% acima do que o mercado esperava e 8,8% superior ao mesmo período do ano anterior. Foi o terceiro trimestre seguido em que o maior banco estatal do país superou as projeções dos analistas — uma sequência que, por si só, já diz algo sobre a solidez da instituição.
O que chamou atenção dos investidores, porém, foi a generosidade na distribuição de resultados. O banco aprovou R$2,6 bilhões em dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio, uma forma de remuneração com vantagens tributárias exclusiva do direito societário brasileiro. José Daronco, da Suno Research, apontou o BB como uma das oportunidades mais atraentes do setor bancário, justamente pela combinação de dividend yield elevado e desempenho operacional consistente. O BTG Pactual reconheceu o retorno sobre patrimônio acima de 20%, mas deslocou sua preferência para o Itaú, banco que, na avaliação da equipe, ainda não atingiu o pico de rentabilidade.
O crédito rural foi o grande protagonista do crescimento: a carteira agropecuária avançou 15,5% em doze meses, chegando a R$372,5 bilhões. A margem financeira bruta cresceu 21,6% no mesmo período, impulsionada também pelo Banco Patagonia, subsidiária argentina do grupo. A base de clientes formada por servidores públicos — com renda estável e baixa inadimplência — ajudou o banco a ampliar spreads sem abrir mão do crescimento.
Mas o agro, que tanto contribuiu para os resultados, começa a apresentar sinais de estresse. A inadimplência no segmento subiu de 0,59% para 1,19% em um ano, o nível mais alto desde setembro de 2020, pressionada por dificuldades de fluxo de caixa entre produtores de soja. A inadimplência geral da carteira também avançou, chegando a 2,90%. E as enchentes que devastaram o Rio Grande do Sul em maio lançam uma sombra sobre os próximos trimestres. A questão que fica para os investidores é se a robustez do balanço e a disciplina na distribuição de capital serão suficientes para atravessar o ciclo que se anuncia.
Banco do Brasil closed out the first quarter of 2024 with adjusted net income of R$9.3 billion, once again clearing the bar that sell-side analysts had set. The number landed 1.8 percent above consensus forecasts of R$9.132 billion—a comfortable beat, though not a dramatic one. It marked the third consecutive quarter in which Brazil's largest state-controlled bank had outperformed expectations, even as the absolute figure dipped 1.5 percent from the record R$9.4 billion posted in the final quarter of 2023. Year-over-year, the bank was up 8.8 percent, a solid trajectory that raised the familiar question: is now the moment to buy?
The bank's peers had already answered that question affirmatively in their own earnings releases. Itaú, Santander, and Bradesco all reported profits exceeding their respective forecasts, suggesting that Brazil's banking sector had found its footing in the early months of the year. But Banco do Brasil stood apart in one respect: its willingness to return capital to shareholders. The bank approved a distribution of R$2.6 billion in dividends and juros sobre capital próprio—a tax-efficient form of profit distribution unique to Brazilian corporate law—for the quarter. This represented nearly half of the quarter's earnings flowing back to investors, a generosity that caught the attention of analysts surveying the landscape.
José Daronco, an analyst at Suno Research, positioned Banco do Brasil as one of the most attractive opportunities in the Brazilian banking sector, citing precisely this dividend yield alongside the bank's operational performance. The BTG Pactual research team, in their own assessment, noted that with a return on equity still exceeding 20 percent, the stock had solid fundamental support. Yet they tempered their enthusiasm: the upside potential they saw in BB's shares did not match what the market had offered in the prior year. BTG's analysts continued to prefer Banco do Brasil and Itaú over Santander and Bradesco, but they shifted their top pick to Itaú, citing the bank's track record of delivering on guidance and management's assertion that it had not yet reached peak profitability.
The engine driving much of Banco do Brasil's growth was agricultural lending. Loans to agribusiness expanded 15.5 percent year-over-year, reaching R$372.514 billion—a remarkable acceleration that reflected the bank's deep roots in rural Brazil and its relationships with farming operations across the country. The broader credit portfolio grew across all coverage segments, but agro was the standout. Daronco attributed the bank's strong financial margins partly to its customer base: a significant portion of Banco do Brasil's depositors are public servants whose incomes are stable and whose default rates remain low. This structural advantage had allowed the bank to widen its spread and grow its loan book simultaneously.
The gross financial margin expanded 21.6 percent over twelve months to R$25.73 billion, a surge powered in part by Banco Patagonia, the group's Argentine subsidiary. Yet beneath these headline numbers lay a troubling undercurrent. Delinquency in the agricultural segment had climbed to 1.19 percent in March, up from 0.96 percent in December and 0.59 percent a year earlier—the highest level since September 2020. The bank attributed the deterioration to "cyclical factors" affecting cash flow among rural producers, particularly those focused on soybean cultivation. Daronco defended the figure as still historically low and argued that the bank's continued growth in agro demonstrated confidence in the segment's long-term prospects.
But the trajectory was unmistakable. The overall delinquency rate across Banco do Brasil's portfolio rose to 2.90 percent in the first quarter, up 0.3 percentage points from 2.62 percent a year prior. Looking ahead, analysts acknowledged that agribusiness—despite being the primary driver of loan growth—would likely become a headwind for earnings. Beyond the rising delinquency rates, the bank faced an additional challenge: the catastrophic flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, which struck in May and would ripple through the agricultural economy for months. The question facing investors was whether the bank's strong capital position, generous dividend policy, and historical ability to navigate credit cycles would be enough to offset the pressures building in its most important growth engine.
Citas Notables
The bank's strong financial margins reflect an excellent relationship with clients, benefiting from a customer base of public servants whose stable incomes make them less prone to default.— José Daronco, Suno Research
We continue to prefer Banco do Brasil and Itaú over Santander and Bradesco, but our top preference in Brazil has shifted to Itaú.— BTG Pactual research team
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
The bank beat expectations again, but the profit actually fell from the previous quarter. How do you square that with the positive framing?
The comparison matters. Quarter-to-quarter, yes, it was down 1.5 percent. But year-over-year it was up 8.8 percent, and it beat what analysts were actually forecasting for this quarter. The market doesn't judge banks on whether they repeat their best-ever quarter—it judges them on whether they meet or exceed what was expected.
And the dividend distribution—R$2.6 billion—that seems generous. Is that sustainable?
That's the tension. The bank is returning nearly half its earnings to shareholders, which is attractive if you're looking for income. But it also means less capital retained for growth or to absorb losses. The analysts are saying the bank has room to do this because its ROE is still above 20 percent and management says they haven't peaked yet.
Let's talk about the agricultural lending. Fifteen percent growth sounds impressive, but the delinquency rate is rising sharply.
Exactly. The bank is lending more aggressively into agro, which is driving the headline growth numbers. But the default rate in that segment has jumped to levels not seen in nearly four years. The bank says it's temporary—weather, commodity prices, cash flow issues. But if you're an investor, you have to ask whether that's wishful thinking.
The Rio Grande do Sul floods happened after these results were published, right?
Yes. These numbers are through March. The floods hit in May. So the market hasn't yet priced in what that disaster will do to agricultural borrowers in the bank's portfolio. That's a known unknown hanging over the stock.
So why would anyone buy it?
Because the bank has a fortress balance sheet, a stable deposit base of public servants, and a long history of navigating credit cycles. The dividend yield is real. And management has credibility. But you're buying it for income and stability, not for growth upside. That's what the analysts are saying when they prefer it to Bradesco or Santander but shift their top pick to Itaú.