The discount was the opportunity. The catalysts were there.
Em dezembro de 2021, analistas do Itaú BBA voltaram seus olhos para o Banco do Brasil e enxergaram o que o mercado havia deixado passar: um banco sólido sendo negociado abaixo do seu valor justo. A recomendação de compra das ações BBAS3, com preço-alvo de R$ 42, não era apenas uma aposta em números — era um convite à reflexão sobre como o ruído político e macroeconômico pode obscurecer fundamentos que resistem ao tempo. No horizonte, as eleições de 2022 prometiam turbulência, mas para quem soubesse olhar além da volatilidade, a margem de segurança já estava embutida no desconto.
- As ações do Banco do Brasil eram negociadas a R$ 32,11 — um desconto visível em relação aos pares do setor bancário brasileiro, sinalizando que o mercado havia subestimado o papel.
- A perspectiva de crescimento de lucro de 10% em 2022 colocava o BB em posição favorável frente a bancos privados, criando uma tensão entre o preço praticado e o valor percebido pelos analistas.
- A carteira de crédito defensiva — concentrada em agronegócio e empréstimos pessoais com baixa inadimplência — funcionava como um escudo contra a deterioração da qualidade de crédito que poderia afetar concorrentes.
- A dependência de depósitos de poupança como fonte de funding protegia o banco das pressões sobre o custo de capital em um ciclo de alta da Selic, diferenciando-o de rivais expostos ao mercado atacadista.
- A incerteza eleitoral de 2022 foi reconhecida como fator de volatilidade inevitável, mas a tese de compra repousava na convicção de que uma melhora na percepção de risco seria suficiente para impulsionar o papel rumo ao alvo de R$ 42.
Numa manhã de dezembro de 2021, os analistas Pedro Leduc e Mateus Raffaelli, do Itaú BBA, fizeram uma leitura direta do mercado: o Banco do Brasil estava barato, e o momento de comprar havia chegado. A recomendação das ações BBAS3 foi elevada de neutra para compra, com preço-alvo de R$ 42 para o fim de 2022 — um salto considerável em relação aos R$ 32,11 negociados naquele dia.
A tese se apoiava em dois pilares. O primeiro era de valuation: o BB era negociado com desconto em relação aos seus pares no setor bancário, mesmo em um ano em que o sistema financeiro havia demonstrado resiliência diante de um cenário macroeconômico adverso e juros em alta. O segundo era de fundamentos: a projeção de crescimento de lucro de 10% em 2022 colocava o banco em posição competitiva tanto em relação ao seu próprio histórico quanto frente aos bancos privados.
O que tornava o argumento ainda mais robusto era a composição da carteira de crédito do banco — fortemente voltada ao agronegócio e a linhas de crédito pessoal com baixo índice de inadimplência. Essa estrutura oferecia proteção contra eventuais deteriorações na qualidade dos ativos. Além disso, a base de captação via poupança isolava o banco das pressões de custo que afetariam concorrentes mais dependentes de funding de mercado em um ciclo de alta da Selic.
O Itaú BBA não ignorou os riscos. As eleições de 2022, reconheceram os analistas, introduziriam volatilidade inevitável. Mas a convicção por trás do upgrade era clara: à medida que a percepção de risco melhorasse, o desconto se fecharia. Para os investidores atentos ao setor bancário naquele dezembro, a mensagem era simples — o maior banco estatal do país havia se tornado atraente justamente porque o mercado havia deixado de olhar para ele.
On a December morning in 2021, Itaú BBA's analysts Pedro Leduc and Mateus Raffaelli made a straightforward call: Banco do Brasil was cheap, and it was time to buy. The bank upgraded its recommendation on BBAS3 shares from neutral to buy, setting a year-end 2022 price target of R$ 42—a meaningful jump from where the stock was trading that day at R$ 32.11, up 2.59% in early afternoon trading.
The thesis was built on two pillars. First, valuation: Itaú BBA saw Banco do Brasil trading at a discount relative to its peers in the Brazilian banking sector. In a year when the broader financial system had proven resilient despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop and rising interest rates, BB looked particularly underpriced. Second, fundamentals: the bank expected Banco do Brasil's profit to grow 10% in 2022, a figure that placed the institution favorably against both its own historical performance and the private banks it competed with.
What made this case compelling was the structure of Banco do Brasil's business. The bank's credit portfolio leaned heavily defensive—agriculture and agribusiness represented a substantial portion, alongside personal lending products with historically low default rates. This composition offered protection against the kind of credit quality deterioration that could plague other lenders if economic conditions worsened. Meanwhile, the bank's reliance on savings deposits as a funding source meant that even as the central bank raised the Selic rate, Banco do Brasil would face less pressure on its cost of capital than competitors more dependent on wholesale funding.
Yet Itaú BBA did not ignore the elephant in the room. Brazil's 2022 elections, the analysts noted, would "inevitably" introduce volatility into the stock. Political uncertainty had a way of rattling investors, and that sentiment could weigh on valuations. But the upgrade itself rested on a conviction that as risk perception improved—whether macroeconomic or political—Banco do Brasil would re-rate upward. The discount was the opportunity. The catalysts were there. The question was whether the market would see it.
For investors watching the Brazilian banking sector that December, the message was clear: the largest state-controlled bank in the country had become attractive precisely because the market had overlooked it. Whether the R$ 42 target would hold depended on forces beyond any analyst's control—but the math, at least, was on the bulls' side.
Notable Quotes
Elections will inevitably bring volatility to the shares, affecting valuation— Itaú BBA analysts
BB is extremely discounted relative to peers and should appreciate with improved risk perception— Itaú BBA analysts
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Itaú BBA think Banco do Brasil was undervalued when the whole banking sector was already performing well?
Because relative value matters more than absolute performance. The sector was resilient, yes, but BB was trading at a bigger discount than its peers. When the tide rises, the boat that's sitting lowest in the water has the most room to float up.
The 10% profit growth forecast—is that aggressive or conservative for a bank of that size?
In context, it's solid but not spectacular. What matters is that it's happening while the bank's credit quality stays protected. You're not getting that growth by taking on extra risk; you're getting it from better rates and stable lending.
The analysts mention elections bringing volatility. Doesn't that undermine the investment case?
Not really. They're acknowledging that volatility will happen—that's honest. But volatility and undervaluation are different things. The stock might bounce around, but if the fundamentals hold, the price target becomes more likely over time.
What about the savings deposit advantage they mention? How real is that?
Very real. When interest rates rise, banks that fund themselves through deposits don't feel the full squeeze that banks relying on market borrowing do. BB's deposit base is a moat, especially in a rising-rate environment.
So the upgrade is essentially saying the market is being irrational about BB?
Not irrational—just inattentive. The market was pricing in political risk and sector headwinds without fully accounting for BB's specific strengths. Sometimes the best opportunities are just the things people haven't looked at closely enough.