The lowest default rate among peers, reflecting a defensive portfolio strategy
Ao encerrar a temporada de resultados do quarto trimestre de 2023, o Banco do Brasil emerge como um dos poucos pilares de solidez num setor bancário que, em grande parte, decepcionou. A instituição estatal, cujas ações subiram mais de 70% ao longo do ano, deve apresentar um lucro modesto mas consistente, sustentado por uma carteira agrícola resiliente e pelos índices de inadimplência mais baixos entre os grandes bancos do país. Num momento em que Bradesco tropeçou e Santander não convenceu, o BB reafirma que crescimento disciplinado e qualidade de crédito podem valer mais do que expansão agressiva.
- A temporada de resultados bancários no Brasil termina com um contraste nítido: enquanto Bradesco e Santander desapontaram, o Banco do Brasil se prepara para entregar um dos desempenhos mais consistentes do setor.
- O lucro projetado de R$ 9,2 bilhões representa crescimento de apenas 1,78% em relação ao ano anterior — um número modesto que, no entanto, esconde um retorno sobre patrimônio acima de 20%, marca que distingue os bancos verdadeiramente bem geridos.
- A inadimplência de 2,9% é a mais baixa entre os grandes concorrentes, reflexo de uma carteira de crédito deliberadamente defensiva, ancorada no agronegócio e no varejo, segmentos que resistiram melhor às turbulências econômicas recentes.
- O risco real está no crédito corporativo, onde provisões crescentes sinalizam que o banco se prepara para alguma deterioração — uma nuvem no horizonte de um céu que, por ora, permanece relativamente aberto.
- Com margens financeiras robustas, despesas operacionais controladas e uma carteira agrícola em expansão, o BB se posiciona para continuar superando seus pares enquanto a economia brasileira navega em águas incertas.
O Banco do Brasil encerra a temporada de resultados do quarto trimestre de 2023 como uma das poucas histórias de sucesso num setor que, em grande medida, frustrou expectativas. Enquanto Bradesco viu suas ações caírem após o balanço e Santander Brasil não conseguiu animar os investidores, o BB deve se firmar ao lado do Itaú como referência de solidez. Suas ações já haviam subido mais de 70% ao longo de 2023 — e os números esperados para o trimestre ajudam a explicar por quê.
O consenso de analistas projeta lucro líquido de R$ 9,2 bilhões no período, contra R$ 9,039 bilhões no mesmo trimestre do ano anterior. O crescimento de 1,78% é modesto, mas o que realmente importa aos investidores é o retorno sobre patrimônio líquido esperado acima de 20% — um limiar que separa as instituições bem geridas das demais. A XP Investimentos estima lucro de R$ 8,8 bilhões com ROE de 21,1%; a Bradesco BBI projeta R$ 9,1 bilhões e ROE de 21,4%.
A carteira de crédito deve crescer entre 8% e 12%, impulsionada principalmente pelo agronegócio, tradicional fortaleza do banco. A margem financeira com clientes deve avançar 11% em relação ao ano anterior, embora receitas de tesouraria mais fracas mantenham o indicador estável frente ao terceiro trimestre. A Genial Investimentos vê a carteira total crescendo 11,2% no ano, posicionando o banco no centro de seu próprio guidance.
A inadimplência, projetada em 2,9%, é a mais baixa entre os grandes bancos brasileiros — dez pontos-base acima do trimestre anterior, mas ainda assim um reflexo da postura conservadora adotada pelo BB. As provisões para devedores duvidosos devem recuar significativamente em relação ao terceiro trimestre, que havia sido onerado por R$ 507 milhões relacionados ao colapso da Americanas.
O único ponto de atenção está no crédito corporativo, onde provisões crescentes indicam cautela diante de uma possível deterioração. Mas, por ora, o retrato que emerge é o de um banco que soube crescer com disciplina, preservar margens e controlar custos — qualidades que, numa temporada de resultados marcada por tropeços, valem mais do que nunca.
Banco do Brasil is closing out the fourth-quarter earnings season for Brazil's largest banks on a note of quiet strength. The state-owned lender, whose stock climbed more than 70 percent over the course of 2023, releases its results after market close on Thursday, and analysts expect it to stand alongside Itaú as one of the few bright spots in a sector that has otherwise disappointed. Santander Brasil failed to excite investors, and Bradesco stumbled badly enough to drag its shares down when it reported.
The consensus forecast from LSEG and market analysts projects Banco do Brasil will post net income of R$9.2 billion for the final three months of 2023, compared to R$9.039 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. That works out to a gain of just 1.78 percent year-over-year—modest by any measure. Yet what matters more to investors than the headline profit number is what that profit says about the bank's underlying health and efficiency. The consensus expects a return on equity above 20 percent, a threshold that separates the genuinely well-run institutions from the rest.
XP Investimentos, one of Brazil's largest independent brokerages, anticipates another quarter of robust growth in Banco do Brasil's lending portfolio, likely tracking toward the middle of the bank's own guidance range of 8 to 12 percent expansion. Agricultural credit, the bank's traditional strength and a pillar of its strategy, should drive much of that growth. The net interest margin—the spread between what the bank pays depositors and what it charges borrowers—is expected to jump 11 percent compared to the prior year, though treasury revenues will likely be weaker, keeping the margin roughly flat from the third quarter.
Default rates tell their own story. XP projects the bank's delinquency ratio will tick up slightly to 2.9 percent, a rise of ten basis points from the previous quarter. Yet that figure remains the lowest among Banco do Brasil's major competitors, a testament to the defensive posture of its loan book and the quality of its borrowers. The bank's portfolio skews toward agricultural lending and retail customers—segments that have weathered recent economic turbulence better than corporate lending. XP's house estimate for net income comes in at R$8.8 billion, implying a return on equity of 21.1 percent.
Genial Investimentos, another major research house, sees credit growth accelerating to 11.2 percent year-over-year and 4.8 percent from the prior quarter, which would place the bank squarely in the middle of its full-year guidance. The agricultural portfolio should continue to perform well, followed by retail lending. Provisions for loan losses are expected to hold steady compared to last year but decline sharply from the third quarter, which had been burdened by R$507 million in provisions tied to the Americanas collapse. That improvement should push provisions toward the upper end of the bank's 2023 guidance.
Bradesco BBI, the research arm of Bradesco, takes a similar view but emphasizes the interplay between margin strength and rising provisions. The bank's customer margins should remain robust, offsetting pressure from higher loan-loss reserves, particularly in the corporate segment where originations are picking up. Delinquency is expected to deteriorate slightly, driven by some stress in agricultural and small-business lending, though retail and corporate customers should remain stable. Fee income should track the third quarter, and operating expenses should stay under control with only a modest quarterly increase. BBI's forecast: R$9.1 billion in net income and a return on equity of 21.4 percent.
What emerges from these projections is a portrait of a bank that has managed to grow its lending book, maintain pricing power, and keep costs in check even as the broader economy has faced headwinds. The agricultural sector, which Banco do Brasil has long cultivated as a core franchise, continues to be a source of stability and growth. The retail segment, too, is holding up. The risk—and it is a real one—lies in corporate lending, where rising provisions suggest the bank is bracing for deterioration. But for now, as the earnings season winds down, Banco do Brasil appears positioned to deliver the kind of steady, profitable performance that has made it a favorite among investors seeking exposure to Brazil's financial sector without the volatility that has plagued some of its peers.
Citas Notables
The bank's customer margins should remain robust, offsetting pressure from higher loan-loss reserves, particularly in the corporate segment where originations are picking up— Bradesco BBI research
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a 1.78 percent profit increase count as a bright spot when the number itself is so small?
Because profit growth isn't what matters most to investors in banking. What matters is how efficiently the bank converts its assets into earnings—that's the return on equity. If Banco do Brasil is generating a 21 percent return on shareholder capital, that's genuinely strong, regardless of whether profit grew 2 percent or 20 percent year-over-year.
And the agricultural lending—is that a strength or a vulnerability?
It's been a strength so far. Agricultural credit has held up well through economic cycles, and it's where Banco do Brasil has deep expertise and relationships. But the bank is also bracing for some stress there, which is why delinquencies are expected to tick up slightly. It's not a crisis, but it's a signal the bank is watching.
The default rate of 2.9 percent is the lowest among peers. Does that mean the other banks are riskier?
Not necessarily riskier in absolute terms, but it does reflect different strategies. Banco do Brasil's portfolio is more defensive—more agriculture, more retail, less exposure to volatile corporate segments. That's a choice, and it's paying off in credit quality.
What about those provisions for loan losses rising in the corporate segment?
That's the bank preparing for trouble it hasn't seen yet. Corporate borrowers are under more pressure than agricultural or retail customers right now, so the bank is setting aside more money just in case. It's prudent, not alarming.
So what's the real story here—is Banco do Brasil outperforming because it's well-managed, or because it's being conservative?
Both. The bank is well-managed, which is why it can be conservative without sacrificing returns. It's not chasing risky growth. It's growing steadily, keeping costs down, and maintaining pricing power. That's the kind of performance that tends to hold up over time.